[mgoetze]

MP pairs, opps bid 1♠-2♠-4♠, and you are on lead with

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[mr1303]

I lead a club with this hand. Yes, sometimes it lets it through.

[nige1]

 mgoetze, on 2015-April-19, 06:32, said:

MP pairs, opps bid 1♠-2♠-4♠, and you are on lead with

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IMO ♥ = 10, ♠A = 9, ♦ = 8, ♣ = 7. Not long ago, I would have led a ♣, for a quick conclusion: Death or Glory! Thanks to the wisdom of BBO, Paul Hackett, and David Bird, I've learnt: Passivity pays, particularly at pairs.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

the choices are hearts or club, heart being passive, club
being active.

Given the auction, they will more often stretching than not,
so passive may be your best shot, even playing IMPs.

With kind regards
Marlowe

PS: Seeing Nige1 voting ... I see neither spade or diamond
as better than clubs, they are as risky as club, even more,
and less likely to do any good.

[Jinksy]

Wouldn't dream of anything beside a heart. If a lead out of turn means that's prohibited, I'll go for a diamond, which is almost as passive.

[PhantomSac]

Leading a club is absolutely terrible

[WesleyC]

I already had a rough template for 1S-2S-4S so I ran a really quick double sim or the various leads.

The results are in the format:

Lead - Chance to defeat 4S - Average number of tricks

AS - 25.4% - 10.19
8S - 22.8% - 10.31
5H - 28.0% - 10.14
6D - 28.3% - 10.14
6C - 23.7% - 10.26

Somewhat surprising that a diamond does so well. Also surprising that the red suits do significantly better at IMPs (Roughly 0.5 IMPs/board).

[rhm]

 WesleyC, on 2015-April-20, 01:21, said:

Somewhat surprising that a diamond does so well. Also surprising that the red suits do significantly better at IMPs (Roughly 0.5 IMPs/board).

I am not surprised and a diamond was my choice.
There is a lot of prejudice against leading from a jack.
If the ♦9 would have been a lower card I would choose a heart

Rainer Herrmann

[PhantomSac]

 WesleyC, on 2015-April-20, 01:21, said:

Also surprising that the red suits do significantly better at IMPs (Roughly 0.5 IMPs/board).

Why is this surprising? Just because it's imps doesn't mean we have to randomly fire a lead away from a king. I don't know what constraints you set on the 4S bidder but I'm guessing that irl passive does even better than those constraints because a lot of people esp at imps just blast game in this auction rather than make a game try, even if game might be bad giving away that info on a close game hand rather than making them lead and defend blind is often bad.

I don't even understand the point of a club. Let's blow a trick a large portion of the time for some obscure gain, that seems like a sweet start to the defense. And let's be surprised that it blows half an imp a board!

A diamond instead of a heart seems totally reasonable, personally I would just lead a heart though.

[mikeh]

Late to the thread because, for a change, I have been playing bridge I probably lead away from Kings as much as anyone, but wouldn't lead a club here. I'd be more tempted if it were K10xx since the 10 offers some chance for a significant payoff when it is right. However, the heart lead seems best.

I rarely lead away from Jxx(x) but possession of the 9 makes the lead more attractive so would get my second choice.

[akwoo]

 PhantomSac, on 2015-April-20, 08:36, said:

I don't even understand the point of a club. Let's blow a trick a large portion of the time for some obscure gain, that seems like a sweet start to the defense. And let's be surprised that it blows half an imp a board!

One of the reasons for traditional aggressive leads is because the average bridge player (especially 30 years ago, when standards were lower) can't actually keep count and is apt to unguard the wrong minor under later pressure. This means if they don't establish the club trick early, they might very well end up mistakenly throwing it away.

There is no question that passive defense is more cognitively demanding than active, because it tends to lead to important decisions at trick 8 where you need to remember most of what happened on the first 7 tricks.

This is not an issue for Justin, and hardly an issue for me or most people posting here, but it's something to keep in mind when we work with (lifetime) novices who are unable to keep track of anything beyond the number of trump out (as declarer) and the top card remaining in each suit (and then only if it's an honor) and occasionally have difficulty even with that.

[KurtGodel]

Tbh, I was surprised that you only drop 0.5 IMPs per board for leading a club. IMPs doesn't mean make most aggressive possible lead. I also think that AS scores better in the sim than irl because you have saved declarer a guess sometimes if they are missing JS (and sometimes other cards).
I think I would probably lead a heart, although a diamond could easily be right.

[WesleyC]

 PhantomSac, on 2015-April-20, 08:36, said:

Why is this surprising? Just because it's imps doesn't mean we have to randomly fire a lead away from a king. I don't know what constraints you set on the 4S bidder but I'm guessing that irl passive does even better than those constraints because a lot of people esp at imps just blast game in this auction rather than make a game try, even if game might be bad giving away that info on a close game hand rather than making them lead and defend blind is often bad.

I gave the 2S raiser 5-10 HCP, not 5-6 4333. I assumed 1NT on all 14-16 (with a 5M) so included 17+ Semi balanced and ALL 13+ unbalanced in the 4S bid which is probably wider than most would play it.

To qualify, my instinct at either form of scoring would be to lead a heart, with a diamond a fair way behind, however having simmed a few similar hands previously, after 1M 2M 4M, passive leads tend to do better than I would usually expect.

[mgoetze]

Thanks guys, especially Wesley. Yes, I did lead a club and it cost an overtrick immediately. Hopefully I've learned my lesson.