[Mbodell]

Alright, some more hands:

Fluffy, on 2015-January-26, 15:30, said:

Everything you said is right on most hands, however on this hand, were we have two or three 4-3 fits it favours a lot declarer, and in my opinion even more.

Anyway the point I wanted to make from the start of this hand is that on this kind of 3NT contract I'd rather hold QJxx than Kxxx, I wonder if others agree on this.

I simmed AT75 QJ84 K5 752 instead of the original AT75 K842 K5 752. So the only change is K842 => QJ84. A number of people liked forcing because of the AKK nature, but Fluffy thought QJxx was better than Kxxx. Banzai points would agree with QJxx worth 5 to the 4 for Kxxx. Results:

Quote

There were an average of 8.35872 tricks available in nt
In general, blasting instead of inviting wins you 0.22545.
In general, inviting instead of blasting wins you -0.22545.
=================================================
When we stay low we would have made game 43684 times (43.684%)
When we stay low we would make 8 exactly 42309 times (42.309000000000005%)
When we stay low we would make 7 or fewer exactly 14007 times (14.007%)

Double dummy agrees that QJxy is slightly better than Kxy2 for a suit.

Zelandakh, on 2015-January-29, 08:08, said:

Could I make another request of you please Mbodell. Could you run the same sim with hands of ♠A752 ♥K842 ♦K5 ♣J75 and ♠A752 ♥K842 ♦K5 ♣T75. That is, moving the minor honour to be unsupported by a higher one. Cheers mate.

So two hands asked for here. First for the T in clubs, not spades, we simulate A752 K842 K5 T75. Results:

Quote

There were an average of 8.15626 tricks available in nt
In general, blasting instead of inviting wins you -0.90265.
In general, inviting instead of blasting wins you 0.90265.
=================================================
When we stay low we would have made game 32006 times (32.006%)
When we stay low we would make 8 exactly 48771 times (48.771%)
When we stay low we would make 7 or fewer exactly 19223 times (19.223000000000003%)

So the T in the clubs quite a bit worse than the T in spades. In fact the T in clubs is worse than the T in diamonds and worse than the 9 in spades!

What about the J of clubs? I also did A752 K842 K5 J75 with results:

Quote

There were an average of 8.51464 tricks available in nt
In general, blasting instead of inviting wins you 0.66784.
In general, inviting instead of blasting wins you -0.66784.
=================================================
When we stay low we would have made game 49020 times (49.02%)
When we stay low we would make 8 exactly 41792 times (41.792%)
When we stay low we would make 7 or fewer exactly 9188 times (9.188%)

We've added about 1.5 IMP to the expected score, close to the 1.7 IMP we were adding for the spade T to spade J. It is better to have the club J than the spade T, but nowhere near as good as the spade J. We are also adding the same sort of 0.36 tricks or so when going from T to J.

kuhchung, on 2015-January-29, 14:15, said:

Could you also get me a beer while you're at it Bodell?

W has 1 spade, East has 2 clubs, both players follow to 3 rounds of hearts, and no one unguards a black suit or throws the 13th heart.

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