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If 4♠ is -4 then EW can make 6♥. But with two key cards in my hand, my teammates won't bid 6♥. I'm still bidding 4♠ though. 4♠ will make opposite many hands that couldn't overcall or double. And it gives the opponents a chance to go wrong.
Is 4H a transfer to 4S?
#21
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Posted 2015-January-03, 23:14
#22
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Posted 2015-January-04, 02:12
I'd bid 4♠, in most cases we have 7 tricks on our own (after a ♥ start) and partner may bring something as well. Moreover, I don't think we can easily beat 4♥, so 2 off or better will be ok. And nobody says we'll get doubled ofcourse.
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#23
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Posted 2015-January-04, 03:50
rogerclee, on 2015-January-03, 17:49, said:
I would definitely bid, I think down 2 or 3 undoubled is definitely in the game when they make 4H.
Just out of curiosity to the passers, suppose I told you that you will take 7 or 8 tricks in 4S. What percent of the time do you think you are getting doubled? I would think about 40% of the time we are down 2 and maybe 70% of the time we are down 3.
Just out of curiosity to the passers, suppose I told you that you will take 7 or 8 tricks in 4S. What percent of the time do you think you are getting doubled? I would think about 40% of the time we are down 2 and maybe 70% of the time we are down 3.
-What % of the time are you expecting to bid 4♠ and make?
-What % of the time are you expecting them to make 4♥?
-What % of the time are you expecting that you will be going down undoubled, stealing a cold 4♥ from them?
-What % of the time are you expecting your pd to make accurate slam decisions when you bid 4♠ over their 4♥, since you obviously expanded the hand types way too much that can overcall 4♠? (W/R pd can perhaps guess you may be saving)
-What % of the time are you expecting pd to be on same page with you when they bid 5♥ and know when to dbl, when to pass and when to bid?
After figuring out the imp exchange for all these then you can add what % of the time we will be doubled at the top of it. Idk the answer to which would come on top in long run. But if you think passers are only worried about being doubled when they bid 4♠ and this is the only reason why they pass, you are underestimating the reasons behind passing imho.
Welcome back btw, I missed ya.
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#24
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Posted 2015-January-04, 11:37
I didn't mean that the % of the time I get doubled in 4S when I am wrong to bid it is the only important factor, it's just that if my estimates are somewhat accurate then to me it is just really obvious to bid 4S and see what happens. There is also huge correlation in the sense that I have no problem with down 3 doubled, obviously it's a minus position but to me if I'm down 3 doubled then they were overwhelming favorites to make 420 or 450.
To me it is unnecessary to think about IMP expectation down to the last detail, just that to me, 4S is a big winner anytime LHO has a max 2H opener, since it is really likely that nobody can double but they are making 4H. If my opponents were very aggressive then I would pass since the % chance that 4S is a phantom, doubled or not, is very high -- and the chance that I am doubled in 4S is also much higher than usual.
To me it is unnecessary to think about IMP expectation down to the last detail, just that to me, 4S is a big winner anytime LHO has a max 2H opener, since it is really likely that nobody can double but they are making 4H. If my opponents were very aggressive then I would pass since the % chance that 4S is a phantom, doubled or not, is very high -- and the chance that I am doubled in 4S is also much higher than usual.