2. What if 1NT - 2♣ 2♠ - 4♠. Would you change your lead?
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The Best Lead
#2
Posted 2014-August-02, 04:12
Diamond rates to be the statistical winner, by a mile and regardless of auction.
#4
Posted 2014-August-03, 04:34
I think it's close between ♦ and ♠, but the auction doesn't really change anything.
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#6
Posted 2014-August-03, 10:06
DealMaster Pro with Deep Finesse analysis shows diamond best in all cases
Trump lead is next best.
Best lead IMP (beat contract)
Card (1) (2)
SJ 30.4% 10.2%
S2 30.0% 10.0%
HK 21.6% 6.2%
HT 28.6% 8.2%
H2 30.6% 9.4%
D8 38.8% 12.6%
CK 18.2% 3.8%
CJ 19.0% 4.4%
C6 20.4% 4.4%
Best lead MP (most tricks)
Card (1) (2)
SJ 68.6% 80.0%
S2 68.6% 79.2%
HK 48.6% 49.6%
HT 60.0% 60.0%
H2 63.0% 63.4%
D8 85.0% 89.2%
CK 44.2% 47.8%
CJ 47.6% 47.3%
C6 48.8% 48.6%
Trump lead is next best.
Best lead IMP (beat contract)
Card (1) (2)
SJ 30.4% 10.2%
S2 30.0% 10.0%
HK 21.6% 6.2%
HT 28.6% 8.2%
H2 30.6% 9.4%
D8 38.8% 12.6%
CK 18.2% 3.8%
CJ 19.0% 4.4%
C6 20.4% 4.4%
Best lead MP (most tricks)
Card (1) (2)
SJ 68.6% 80.0%
S2 68.6% 79.2%
HK 48.6% 49.6%
HT 60.0% 60.0%
H2 63.0% 63.4%
D8 85.0% 89.2%
CK 44.2% 47.8%
CJ 47.6% 47.3%
C6 48.8% 48.6%
Lorne Russell
#8
Posted 2014-August-03, 13:13
whereagles, on 2014-August-03, 12:54, said:
why such large difference in imp figures from case 1 to 2?
Case 1 was an invitational auction. I gave opener 16-17 and responder 8-9.
Case 2 responder was strong enough to force game. I gave opener 15-17 and responder 10-14.
Lorne Russell
#9
Posted 2014-August-03, 13:25
The diamond is a passive lead. I like it in the original auction, where responder was tentative and game is likely borderline. In auction 2 responder is more sure of himself, so I prefer an attacking lead, low from the KH.
#10
Posted 2014-August-04, 15:07
Mom always said to lead the unbid major. So deuce of hearts is good enough for me. I can't remember how many times leading from a worthless doubleton gives up a trick or two or three.
#11
Posted 2014-August-04, 19:34
Well, that was before the age of computer simulations. These days we know that doubleton leads are significantly better than king underleads.
#12
Posted 2014-August-05, 01:03
Mom isn't always right
![:P](http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#14
Posted 2014-August-05, 11:09
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#15
Posted 2014-August-05, 11:51
whereagles, on 2014-August-04, 19:34, said:
Well, that was before the age of computer simulations. These days we know that doubleton leads are significantly better than king underleads.
I highly doubt computer simulations are what stopped good players from leading from kings into 1N openers on invitational auctions.
The artist formerly known as jlall
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