[gwnn]

538 makes its comeback! (I didn't read it but I'm a bit Nate Silver fanboy so I will link to it anyway)

http://fivethirtyeig...-is-impossible/

[cherdano]

gwnn, on 2014-July-02, 16:15, said:

Ronaldo is an excellent header (Messi does not rate at all) and has a better long-range shot, though.

Isn't that sometimes a bit of a liability? I have seen him take a number of low-percentage shots from 30+ meters out, where a well-timed Messi pass might be more likely to succeed (yet would perhaps not even give Messi credit for an assist). Obviously, I would have to watch hundreds of games whether my perception of percentages is true...I guess trying a shot that works 3% of the time is a good shot.

Quote

Overall, I think it's not easy to compare them, but Messi usually gets the vote because his brilliancies are memorable, Ronaldo's are more conventional.

I am surprised you say that (see above) - but I will believe you!

[cherdano]

gwnn, on 2014-July-03, 02:58, said:

538 makes its comeback! (I didn't read it but I'm a bit Nate Silver fanboy so I will link to it anyway)

http://fivethirtyeig...-is-impossible/

This is fantastic. This is the first time I see an article on football based entirely on statistics with substance - and wow, quite a serious amount of content!

[Aberlour10]

Remember WC 1990? Germany won it showing nothing special, shooting goals from standard situations, and managed the rest with compact team performence. It can happen another time, Brasil without 2 key players is beatable for sure. They run so often in "open knife", thats what the germans love and are able to exploit with the smart tactic.

[Trinidad]

So, it is Brazil - Germany and Argentina - Germany's little brother...

I wonder how the Argentina - Netherlands game will be watched in the living room of the Dutch royal family...

Rik

[Aberlour10]

Added a quick poll for the last days of the WC

[mike777]

I see Brazil is still a 60-65% fav to win today even without 2 of their stars.

[Cyberyeti]

mike777, on 2014-July-08, 12:15, said:

I see Brazil is still a 60-65% fav to win today even without 2 of their stars.

If the game is well refereed, Brazil are odds against, if the ref is as weak as the one against Colombia, then Brazil have a good chance.

[cherdano]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-July-08, 12:39, said:

If the game is well refereed, Brazil are odds against, if the ref is as weak as the one against Colombia, then Brazil have a good chance.

Great! This means either I can celebrate a German win today, or Bayes' formula tells me I can probably complain about bad refereering! Win-win!

[gwnn]

Could we stop it with the referee bashing already? The guy who almost killed Neymar should have been sent off, but sure, let's pretend it's 2002 all over again.

[Cyberyeti]

gwnn, on 2014-July-08, 12:54, said:

Could we stop it with the referee bashing already? The guy who almost killed Neymar should have been sent off, but sure, let's pretend it's 2002 all over again.

Caveat, I've not seen endless replays, I've only seen the incident once. I felt the Colombian thought Neymar was going to carry on moving away from him and jump, in fact Neymar stopped and stayed on the ground, I don't think it was intentional.

The previous game could have had the same problem, Fernandinho committed a borderline yellow/red card challenge in the first couple of minutes and didn't get a card, so Chile clobbered Neymar in the same way and nearly put him out at that stage.

Brazil should have had so many players booked in the first half v Colombia, the fouling would have had to stop, and Colombia might have had a chance to win the game.

That's without talking about the Croatia game.

[gwnn]

If you just write a list of all the injustices for one team while ignoring or shrugging off the corresponding ones against them, the list will be very long and impressive.

I don't know. I liked the football Brazil produced against Colombia, especially the second first half (edit). I guess others were watching it with a notebook, writing up all the mistakes the evil conspiracy made to push the evil hosts through. I guess that is also a way of enjoying the game but it's not really for me. When it is blatant, I will notice it too but I prefer to watch the game.

[cherdano]

gwnn, on 2014-July-08, 12:54, said:

Could we stop it with the referee bashing already? The guy who almost killed Neymar should have been sent off, but sure, let's pretend it's 2002 all over again.

My problem is not so much with the referees, but with FIFA. The number of yellow cards at this world cup is down by a big amount (2.89 per game versus 5.39 in 2006). That's clearly due to FIFA refereeing guidelines. I just can't wrap my head around experimenting with such a delicate balance at the most important event in world. It's mind-boggingly stupid.

P.S.: I am not claiming any conspiracy theories, and I didn't keep track of whether Brazil or Columbia got disadvantaged overall. But a number of times I thought "This used to be a yellow card!"

[Cyberyeti]

gwnn, on 2014-July-08, 13:42, said:

If you just write a list of all the injustices for one team while ignoring or shrugging off the corresponding ones against them, the list will be very long and impressive.

I don't know. I liked the football Brazil produced against Colombia, especially the second half. I guess others were watching it with a notebook, writing up all the mistakes the evil conspiracy made to push the evil hosts through. I guess that is also a way of enjoying the game but it's not really for me. When it is blatant, I will notice it too but I prefer to watch the game.

Even the Brazilian journalists working temporarily with the BBC said that the referee was terrible and had to clamp down on what they did against Colombia. Apparently it's a very well known phenomenon with the Brazilian team, and you just have to show that you're the boss early as a ref or they keep doing it.

Another thing I didn't know that I got from those Brazilian journalists, you know the Brazilian commentary style where you get 20 seconds + of GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL, that apparently originated because the commentary positions were so far from the pitch that it gave the commentators a chance to work out who the hell had scored.

[gwnn]

To be fair, in 2006 Portugal-Netherlands alone had about 50 bookings

[mike777]

10 minute...Early German goal

btw I noticed just at game time.....the house lost all power

[Aberlour10]

mike777, on 2014-July-08, 14:11, said:

10 minute...Early German goal

btw I noticed just at game time.....the house lost all power

standard situation as usual. they stay cool.

[mike777]

Articles at the start of the World Cup stated that the refs are picked on the basis of equality and diversity NOT merit.

[Cyberyeti]

mike777, on 2014-July-08, 14:13, said:

Articles at the start of the World Cup stated that the refs are picked on the basis of equality and diversity NOT merit.

Of course, Blatter's constituency is the developing football world.

The word schadenfreude is coming to mind at 4-0.

[Aberlour10]

that is what I meant with running into the open knife. unbelivable