[kgr]

All good club level players, but not experts:
IMPs (teams)

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Another hand sent by mail to me. You can comment on the bidding and the play, but the question is which opp has the ♠A and ♠Q:
1) LHO leads a small ♥ for ♥T of RHO and your ♥J
2) ♣K played and taken by LHO with ♣A.
3) LHO plays ♥K, RHO is not following ♥ anymore (it was not told in the email what he discarded). You take ♥A.
4) ♦ for ♦K and RHO takes DA.
5) RHO returns a small ♠.
Do you play ♠K or ♠J.
=> Given LHO's bidding, do you think it is more likely that he has:
♠A??=♥KQxxxxx=♦???=♣A??
or:
♠Q??=♥KQxxxxx=♦???=♣A??

[1eyedjack]

I think that with SA, West would be slightly more likely to start with a top Heart.
If East had two bullets he might double 2D, but I consider this less persuasive.
If East has the Ace and I guess right I may stand to gain an extra IMP.
Any mildly competent East will be well capable of underleading the Ace, so I would not read anything into the fact that he has not cashed it..
Not much in it but on balance I play high. If it doesn't work, just shrug.
Would West overcall 2H with just the Queen? Possibly that ranks as the most compelling argument for the alternative line.

[y66]

If west has the SA, he might have tried 4H over 1C or started hearts from the top as suggested by 1eye.

[kenberg]

I have taken far more thought with this than I would ever be allowed to take at the table and I still have no idea. The best I can see has already been said. Perhaps, if the ♠A lies with W, at least some Wests might have done something different. It's a very thin reed, but I go with it and hop up.

I think W has Qxx / KQ87632 / xx / A

This certainly seems consistent with everything that has happened. Changing ♠Q to ♠A looks pretty consistent to me also, but maybe, just maybe, W would have acted more aggressively. I think 4♥ would go for wuite a number if W holds Axx / KQ87632 / xxx / A but perhaps he would have tried it. I like to think I would not have.

[kgr]

Thanks you for the answers.
East had ♠A.
Q: Also I West had ♠A then he might have rebid 3♥ over 2NT?

[Zelandakh]

If this were me West would be more likely to have ♠A because with only the queen a jump would be likely. I am aware enough not to assume this for others.