[CSGibson]

---

Vul vs not in a sectional swiss, playing the event favorites and leaders (you are a close 2nd). RHO is a bit of a wild-card. Do you take action? If so, what?

[dake50]

4S gets them sacrificing 5D; whereas 5C will be left to play.
Both risk partner's hearts confusing this auction; both lose other black fit.
I'm trying 5C. Great offense, I want to play 5C.
Don't know if, nor how we can knowingly get to 6C/6S.

[Fluffy]

I try to pass in tempo because ♥A looks good if partner bids them, otherwise 4♠, right now I would be happy with +300 in 5♦ X.

[straube]

I'm passing. 2nd choice is 4N which I think partner will take as a 5M/6C.

[Free]

Fluffy, on 2013-July-05, 18:22, said:

I try to pass in tempo

Can't do that if RHO uses the STOP card

I'd also pass, the suits are too weak to bid unfav at this level.

[MrAce]

I would pass

[gwnn]

Pass but next time someone is whining about how 4m is a useless bid as usually you can get around with either bidding 3m or 5m, show them this hand

[wank]

i'd bid 4♠ and run away to 5♣ if LHO smacks it. yes, it's very dangerous, but so is passing with so much shape - we could be making slam on hands where partner can't protect.

[MrAce]

wank, on 2013-July-07, 04:22, said:

i'd bid 4♠ and run away to 5♣ if LHO smacks it. yes, it's very dangerous, but so is passing with so much shape - we could be making slam on hands where partner can't protect.

It is not entirely impossible to construct hands where pd can not protect and we are making slam, or he has the cards we need to make game only and he will peacefully pass 4♠ or 5♦ raise today and not in the future when we have our bid. But i still think the downsides of bidding is bigger than passing.

No need to mention that LHO may totally dissapoint you by not doubling when he believes he may not collect enough under tricks, if any, in another contract. This is actually not that unlikely if he believes their side does not have 5♦ bonus to protect, when you hold 2 aces.

But hey, when a hand is posted in BBF, the bid that we believe to be the winner in long run (in this case it is pass for me) , usually fails.

[rogerclee]

4S

[benlessard]

WTP 4S. If partner make a slam try or compete again i wont be ashamed of my hand, if I get wacked in 4S ill bid 5C with still some small hope to make it.

[gnasher]

5♣. 4♠ in a 5-2 fit will probably be awful, whereas in 5♣ we may survive being in the second-best strain.

[mikeh]

gnasher, on 2013-July-09, 02:45, said:

5♣. 4♠ in a 5-2 fit will probably be awful, whereas in 5♣ we may survive being in the second-best strain.

This is interesting, and the more I thought about it, the more I liked it (tho I would be a passer at the table). My initial reaction was that our suit was so bad that partner might get us too high when he holds the hand we need for us to take 11 tricks, but then I looked at my major suit Aces: it is very unlikely that he can put us in slam and, if he can, we probably make.

However, I tend to get conservative in these situations. I may be wrong in this, but I try to picture the sort of hand I am hoping partner to hold to make my bid work, and then I imagine LHO holding that hand, since surely the odds are equal.

When LHO holds the hand I hope partner has, then he has an easy double and the cost could be huge.

I wouldn't make that factor the deciding factor if we were in a committal position. But on some, tho far from most, hands where we belong in the auction, we can still get there after pass. On those hands were we belong on defence against 4♦, we can't get there if I bid.

So I like the 5♣ but not enough to make the call.

I should confess that were I forced to bid, my initial reaction was 4♠ but you changed my mind on that, at least

[straube]

I ran 50 hands with that shape. I pretty much divided the preempting hand between 7 and 8 diamonds evenly.



Spade fits Club fits
9...8
10..9
8...9
8...8
9...6
6...9
7...10
9...9
6...8
9...7
10..6
6...10
8...8
8...10
8...8
7...11
8...9
7...9
7...8
6...7
7...9
7...8
6...7
7...9
11..8
6...10
7...10
9...9
9...7
10..6
6...9
9...9
7...10
9...7
9...8
10..10
6...9
9...11
5...10
10..9
9...9
8...8
5...10
8...9
7...10
8...10
9...8
9...9
9...10
8...9
7...9
7...8
9...10

[CSGibson]

David, I don't think we need to run a program to know that, all things being equal, we are more likely to have a club fit than a spade fit when we have more clubs than spades.

[Free]

CSGibson, on 2013-July-09, 10:52, said:

David, I don't think we need to run a program to know that, all things being equal, we are more likely to have a club fit than a spade fit when we have more clubs than spades.

Yeah, but 4♠ makes 6 times and 5♣ only makes 2 times. Both contracts fail a considerable amount of time, which makes pass look like the best option.

[CSGibson]

Free, on 2013-July-09, 11:04, said:

Yeah, but 4♠ makes 6 times and 5♣ only makes 2 times. Both contracts fail a considerable amount of time, which makes pass look like the best option.

Ok, I'm an idiot. I thought that was a program examining the likelihood of a fit, not the number of expected tricks in each contract.

Also, I'm an idiot in that I bid on this hand, taking us past our only making spot, 4H.

[straube]

CSGibson, on 2013-July-09, 10:52, said:

David, I don't think we need to run a program to know that, all things being equal, we are more likely to have a club fit than a spade fit when we have more clubs than spades.

That wasn't why I generated hands. I wanted folks to have a sense for how often their action panned out. For instance, if you passed, how often did you miss a 9+ spade fit? If you bid 4S, how often did you get to play a 6-cd fit when you had a 9-cd club fit available? Is it worth taking out the insurance of bidding 4N as clubs/major to find the best fit or does it really matter? I haven't looked at the data yet and haven't drawn any conclusions. Whether or not these hands are useful, I was trying to help the discussion.

Btw, for those bidding 4S with the plan of running to 5C when doubled, they should probably redouble first to ask partner's opinion about running.

[straube]

Free, on 2013-July-09, 11:04, said:

Yeah, but 4♠ makes 6 times and 5♣ only makes 2 times. Both contracts fail a considerable amount of time, which makes pass look like the best option.

No. These are just fits. Not tricks. I wish I had that ability. Maybe Cascade...

[gszes]

I am severely torn between pass and 4n and see no rationale
behind a 4s bid. 65 come alive has got to have a limit somewhere
is this hand with 2 moth eaten suits forced to start bidding at the
5 level that limit???

A 4n bid will warn p about the poor quality of our expected 5 card M
since we are going to a lot of trouble to make certain they realize we
have clubs. This fact alone goes a long way toward increasing the safety
of the 5 level since p will not press on w/o considerable major suit values.

I have left many opponents in their hopeless 4M contracts down 1 or 2
when they are cold for 6 or even 7 of another strain. Preempts work. If
you are going to bid this hand choose 4n and do not choose to emphasize
this moth eaten spade suit as if it had any semblance body.

IMO 4n = 10 pass = 9.5 4s = 4