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♠3 was lead. I took it in dummy and the only line I thought of was playing a club towards dummy so that I could throw a heart loser on a surplus club winner (this line included hearts 3-3). Afterwards I thought of two heart finesses (this one includes hearts 3-3, too), what is better?
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What's your line? This or that or something else
#1
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Posted 2013-April-18, 21:42
♠3 was lead. I took it in dummy and the only line I thought of was playing a club towards dummy so that I could throw a heart loser on a surplus club winner (this line included hearts 3-3). Afterwards I thought of two heart finesses (this one includes hearts 3-3, too), what is better?
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win
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#2
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Posted 2013-April-19, 01:00
I would always play on hearts. But I cannot count the winning scenarios.
Kind Regards
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#3
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Posted 2013-April-19, 03:25
Are you not home if hearts are 3-3 and trumps behave? 5 spades, 2 hearts, 2 diamonds and a diamond ruff, as long as we get our fourth heart set up before they can tap us out. We need to be looking at how to handle worse breaks than this. My intuition is that playing on hearts is best but better to leave it to Rainer and co to calculate things more precisely.
(-: Zel :-)
#4
- Andy Bowles
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Posted 2013-April-19, 04:28
With trumps breaking, we can combine a club finesse with playing for a long heart: win in hand; club to some honour, losing; win the trump return; ruff a diamond; run ♥10; ruff the return; draw the last trump; play hearts. That works when we guess clubs, or hearts are 3-3, or hearts are HHxx-Hx/Hxxx-HH/xx-HHHx.
The alternative of going only for hearts is clearly worse. Suppose it goes: trump won in dummy; heart finesse; trump. We're now forced to take the diamond ruff, so we can only take one more heart finesse. That gains us Hx-HHxx and loses HH-Hxxx (ie six more heart breaks), but it gives up the 50%+ chance of the club finesse.
The alternative of going only for hearts is clearly worse. Suppose it goes: trump won in dummy; heart finesse; trump. We're now forced to take the diamond ruff, so we can only take one more heart finesse. That gains us Hx-HHxx and loses HH-Hxxx (ie six more heart breaks), but it gives up the 50%+ chance of the club finesse.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#5
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Posted 2013-April-19, 05:13
Andy,
in which scenario do you win if you get an extra club trick? When hearts are 3-3 it does not matter, so which 4-2 breaks are critical?
in which scenario do you win if you get an extra club trick? When hearts are 3-3 it does not matter, so which 4-2 breaks are critical?
Kind Regards
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#6
- Andy Bowles
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Posted 2013-April-20, 02:02
We're comparing
(1) Taking two heart finesses.
(2) Taking one club finesse and one heart finesse.
Assuming all combinations are equally likely and it's a pure guess in clubs:
(1) fails when the suit is:
KQJxx-x and we would have a club trick (1.5 combinations)
KQJx-xx and we would have a club trick (1.5)
HH-Hxxx (3)
H-HHxxx and we would have a club trick and LHO has three trumps (~ 1)
(2) fails when the suit is:
Hx-HHxx and we have no club trick (4.5)
H-HHxxx and we have no club trick (1.5)
So, if I've got that right, (2) is at least slightly better than (1). However, I think that we'd get clubs right more often than half the time, so the edge for (2) is greater.
(1) Taking two heart finesses.
(2) Taking one club finesse and one heart finesse.
Assuming all combinations are equally likely and it's a pure guess in clubs:
(1) fails when the suit is:
KQJxx-x and we would have a club trick (1.5 combinations)
KQJx-xx and we would have a club trick (1.5)
HH-Hxxx (3)
H-HHxxx and we would have a club trick and LHO has three trumps (~ 1)
(2) fails when the suit is:
Hx-HHxx and we have no club trick (4.5)
H-HHxxx and we have no club trick (1.5)
So, if I've got that right, (2) is at least slightly better than (1). However, I think that we'd get clubs right more often than half the time, so the edge for (2) is greater.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#7
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Posted 2013-April-20, 08:22
going for the club immediately seems to have much better chances overall
(gnasher)
After hearing you have 9+ cards in the majors it is a lot tougher (seemingly suicidal)
for lho to duck the club A if you lead toward the dummy. Even at its worst this play alone
is 50% + 33 hearts + (by taking 1 heart finesse) Hx HH HHH HHHx with rho.
While going after hearts alone will reward you with some extra chances in
hearts those chances are nowhere near the 50% (at its worst) the club suit offers.
(gnasher)
After hearing you have 9+ cards in the majors it is a lot tougher (seemingly suicidal)
for lho to duck the club A if you lead toward the dummy. Even at its worst this play alone
is 50% + 33 hearts + (by taking 1 heart finesse) Hx HH HHH HHHx with rho.
While going after hearts alone will reward you with some extra chances in
hearts those chances are nowhere near the 50% (at its worst) the club suit offers.
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