[pclayton]

Playing at the 1st day of the Palm Springs regional your partner arrives 30 minutes late so you miss the Open Pairs and get to play in the side game a few hours later.

The fun only gets worse. Bad decision after bad decision culminates with this hand (You play in 4♥, after a splinter raise):

Scoring: MP

---

LHO leads the K♣ (A from AK) and shifts to a small spade. Over to you.

[luke warm]

i'd lead low heart toward board, covering whatever east plays... this is probably wrong at matchpoints, but it is my personality

[ArcLight]

You have 1 ♦ and 1♣ loser and can afford one more, a ♥.

[Free is right, this wont work!]



Lead a ♥ to the Ace and then back to the ♥ Q.

This will cater to:
1) A 3-1 ♥ distribution where the King is singleton (~6%)
2) Any 2-2 distribution (~37.5%)
3) A 3-1 distribution where West has Kxx. (~18%)

Overall I think you have around a 60% chance of making.

You are down 1 if East has KJx, or there is a 4-0 trump split.

[Free]

ArcLight, on Dec 17 2004, 03:34 PM, said:

You have 1 ♦ and 1♣ loser and can afford one more, a ♥.


Lead a ♥ to the Ace and then back to the ♥ Q.

This will cater to:
1) A 3-1 ♥ distribution where the King is singleton (~6%)
2) Any 2-2 distribution (~37.5%)
3) A 3-1 distribution where West has Kxx. (~18%)

Overall I think you have around a 60% chance of making.

You are down 1 if East has KJx, or there is a 4-0 trump split.

Aren't you forgetting something? If you play trumps like this and trumps split 3-1, you have 2 ♣ losers...

[luke warm]

well phil? you gonna tell us?

[pclayton]

I double hooked hearts into doubleton KJ.

Still not sure what the right play is; you can't pick up KJx of hearts on your left, since you compress the hand if you cash A♥ and try to ruff 2 clubs in dummy.

[HeartA]

You can only carter ♥2-2, or 3-1 with stiff K or J.

At trick #3, ♥ to Ace and ruff a ♣ (trick #4). Cash another ♠ honor (trick #5) and ruff ♠ at trick #6. Ruff the last club in dummy (trick #7) and cash ♦AK (trick #8 & #9). At trick #10, play ♥Q from dummy....

This fails only when West has ♥K9x AND ♦3-3 (and East can get in with 3rd ♦) AND East has 4th ♠ to promote a trump trick.

[pclayton]

Not true; I pick up KJx or K9x (overtrick) in RHO by starting the Queen.

[HeartA]

Phil,

Only when you have evidence that RHO has KJx(K9x) do you play HQ from dummy at trick 2. I knew I need write more details about the play.

What if you loss to stiff K? Or you loss to KJ, will you play drop or finesse again? My line covers RHO with K9x as well.

BTW, are you sure you will have an overtrick if RHO has ♥KTx? Don't forget you need to ruff TWO clubs in dummy. After RHO covers ♥Q, how would you know ♥ were 3-1, not 2-2?

[pclayton]

Only when you have evidence that RHO has KJx(K9x) do you play HQ from dummy at trick 2. I knew I need write more details about the play.

What if you loss to stiff K? Or you loss to KJ, will you play drop or finesse again? My line covers RHO with K9x as well.

If I lose to stiff K; fine; I still pick up Jxx on right (this is what I played for)


BTW, are you sure you will have an overtrick if RHO has ♥KTx? Don't forget you need to ruff TWO clubs in dummy. After RHO covers ♥Q, how would you know ♥ were 3-1, not 2-2?

Well, I have to decide to drop the 9 or hook, but either way I have 10 tricks.