[Zelandakh]

 billw55, on 2012-October-31, 10:31, said:

Found an interesting voter quiz here.

Apparently I side 98% with Jill Stein, whoever she might be. And I am also 96% Dem/Green but only 2% Rep. I find those results a little surprising considering I am pretty much a classical Liberal in the European sense. The did not ask any questions about business and the like though which would likely have made a difference. Between Obama and Romney it gives 82% Obama and 3% Romney - is the site run by a Democrat source perchance? Besides, was this based on Romney's line during the Republican nomination campaign or during the Presidential campaign? They are, after all, quite different audiences.

[luke warm]

colorado early voting

[billw55]

 Zelandakh, on 2012-October-31, 10:57, said:

is the site run by a Democrat source perchance?

Beats me. For kicks though, I went through it again and answered very conservatively, and got 96% Romney.

[PassedOut]

Nate Silver has an interesting piece today assessing why likely voters polled by state show a 1.9% lead for Obama while the national polls show a dead heat: What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote

Quote

Suppose, for example, that you take the consensus forecast in each state. (By “consensus” I just mean: the average of the different forecasts.) Then you weigh it based on what each state’s share of the overall turnout was in 2008, in order to produce an estimate of the national popular vote.

Do the math, and you’ll find that this implies that Mr. Obama leads nationally by 1.9 percentage points — by no means a safe advantage, but still a better result for him than what the national polls suggest.

What if turnout doesn’t look like it did in 2008? Instead, what if the share of the votes that each state contributed was the same as in 2004, a better Republican year?

That doesn’t help to break the discord between state and national polls, unfortunately. Mr. Obama would lead by two percentage points in the consensus forecast weighing the states by their 2004 turnout.

Or we can weigh the states by their turnout in 2010, a very good Republican year. But that doesn’t help, either: instead, Mr. Obama leads by 2.1 percentage points based on this method.

So about a 2% lead with almost a week to go. But of course the state polls could be way off. We'll know soon enough...

[luke warm]

this one is optimistic even by my standards... the one troubling aspect for me is obama's approval rating... as long as it is as high as it is, i don't think a blowout is possible

[PassedOut]

 luke warm, on 2012-October-31, 12:07, said:

this one is optimistic even by my standards... the one troubling aspect for me is obama's approval rating... as long as it is as high as it is, i don't think a blowout is possible

Certainly not when you take into account all of the voter fraud in the works...

[luke warm]

 PassedOut, on 2012-October-31, 12:19, said:

Certainly not when you take into account all of the voter fraud in the works...

true... here's another good one from bozo the VP

i almost forgot today was halloween until someone tweeted that obama was dressing up as the president... maybe we can teach our kids about redistribution if we take their candy and give it to others

[hrothgar]

 luke warm, on 2012-October-31, 12:53, said:

maybe we can teach our kids about redistribution if we take their candy and give it to others

Funny, I thought that forcible redistribution under threat of violence was the raison d'être of Halloween
(Well, that and slutty cat costumes)

[lalldonn]

 luke warm, on 2012-October-31, 09:04, said:

i realize this is from the gop site but it's still pretty amazing, if true

Almost everything on the several gop sites I have visited recently are pretty amazing if true. Most things in the bible and on Criminal Minds as well, oh and I can't forget Game of Thrones...

[luke warm]

 hrothgar, on 2012-October-31, 13:30, said:

(Well, that and slutty cat costumes)

now we're talking

 lalldonn, on 2012-October-31, 14:24, said:

Almost everything on the several gop sites I have visited recently are pretty amazing if true. Most things in the bible and on Criminal Minds as well, oh and I can't forget Game of Thrones...

yep, they can't all be right... and i can't wait till april, season 3 coming up

[ArtK78]

I would guess that Republicans nationwide are having hissy fits watching Governor Christie and President Obama together in New Jersey today going over the storm damage. Governor Christie can hardly say enough good things about the way President Obama has been heading the federal effort to help the states hit by Sandy. And President Obama is holding up Governor Christie as an example of a leader who puts his state's interests first and everything else somewhere else.

As a New Jersey resident, it is nice to see our leaders actually leading.

[BunnyGo]

 billw55, on 2012-October-31, 10:31, said:

Found an interesting voter quiz here.

Seems more in depth than most such quizzes.

It seemed in depth, but when I checked their comparisons they seemed a bit off. For example:

Iran I apparently sided with Romney, but it only gave Romney credit for " Isolate through trade embargoes" and didn't give Obama credit for that (despite it being what he's doing) nor for my answer which was "strategically eliminate nuclear capabilities" which depending on definition is what Israel and US are doing with computer viruses (to a small extent).

Or "Should the US end the war in Afghanistan?' I said "yes" (and based on my interpretation of Obama and Romney in the debate, they said "yes" too) but only the third party candidates are credited with that answer.

mostly it seemed reasonable, and interesting, but I did not understand the details of some of their information.

[BunnyGo]

They are also missing Angus King (the presumptive winner) from the senate race here in Maine.

[Flem72]

I understand taht the SOS in Ohio sent absentee ballots to every registered voter, and that accurately correllating the poll votes with the absentee votes may take a week or so. Crap.

[Vampyr]

 ArtK78, on 2012-October-31, 15:51, said:

Governor Christie can hardly say enough good things about the way President Obama has been heading the federal effort to help the states hit by Sandy. And President Obama is holding up Governor Christie as an example of a leader who puts his state's interests first and everything else somewhere else.

Class.

[cherdano]

 billw55, on 2012-October-31, 10:31, said:

Found an interesting voter quiz here.

I wonder how Romney would score if he took this quiz today.

[lalldonn]

Not to keep spamming with Nate updates, but Obama now at 300.4 electoral votes and 79% chance of winning. Yee hah.

[hrothgar]

 lalldonn, on 2012-November-01, 04:06, said:

Not to keep spamming with Nate updates, but Obama now at 300.4 electoral votes and 79% chance of winning. Yee hah.

300.4 is just the mean...
The mode (the most likely event) looks to be about 331 which would be a real drubbing...

(This number could be depressed a bit if/when Obama loses PA)

[mike777]

I get the impression that Republicans are assuming/hoping for a self identified base turnout ratio in the swing states closer to the 2004 election rather than the 2008 election.

It seems that even Rowe and Morris concede the republicans dont have a chance with anything close to the 2008 swing state election ratios.


http://www.gallup.co...-like-2008.aspx

It looks like they assume something such as this:

Party--2004---2008----2012
DEM 37%----39%------35%
REP 39%-----29%------36%

---


538 has the President up by about 2% in the popular vote with 5 days to go

",,,if Mr. Romney wins the popular vote by more than about two percentage points, for example, he’ll be very likely to cobble together a winning electoral map, somehow and some way...."

Intrade has this as a 24.5% chance as of today.

[Bbradley62]

 cherdano, on 2012-November-01, 02:35, said:

I wonder how Romney would score if he took this quiz today.

And then again tomorrow