[ArtK78]

 kenberg, on 2012-October-26, 14:01, said:

We expect on the spot reports. Maybe the candidates can give us their views .

Here is my prediction:

It is raining and very windy. There goes the power...

I do have a laptop so I will have at least a few hours of power on the laptop if we lose power generally. However, if that happens, we may head inland to my parents' home in Cherry Hill, which is what we did when we lost power due to the Derecho in June. But, in this case, it is possible that they will be affected as much as we will be.

[PassedOut]

 ArtK78, on 2012-October-26, 13:41, said:

I am just hoping not to be washed out to sea before election day, as the Frankenstorm (a/k/a Hurricane Sandy) bears down directly on Atlantic City.

Should be a lot of fun around here starting Sunday.

Yes, looks like a bad one. Take care!

[nigel_k]

To me this is pretty simple.

Obama had a healthy lead until he had to switch off the teleprompter and go head to head against Romney. Then he sank like a lead balloon. But it's still close and the rest of the way, he only has to stand in front of friendly crowds and read out what his excellent speechwriters have prepared for him. That's where Obama excels. Plus, he has more money so can buy more ads. The economy isn't going to get noticeably worse before the election, especially now that the Fed is blowing it up like a balloon. Any emergency that may arise in the next two weeks should favour the president in the short term, as long as he takes strong action.

So I would definitely bet on Obama.

[Phil]

 ArtK78, on 2012-October-26, 13:41, said:

I am just hoping not to be washed out to sea before election day, as the Frankenstorm (a/k/a Hurricane Sandy) bears down directly on Atlantic City.

Should be a lot of fun around here starting Sunday.

God wants a poor voter turnout in the swing states.

Expect a lot of moisture to hit Ohio.

[billw55]

 hrothgar, on 2012-October-26, 13:25, said:

I think that you misunderstand the prupose of Luke Warm's posts...

He's not trying to provide accurate information.
Rather, he is building a case for the voter fraud claims that will be levied when Obama wins OH, MI, and the like.

I am expecting some real Florida 2000 type ugliness come election day
(I'm taking the following day off work just so I can watch)

I was thinking he is just a republican cheerleader.

I am not expecting another Florida 2000. This will not be close enough for one state to swing it.

[luke warm]

 billw55, on 2012-October-26, 14:58, said:

I was thinking he is just a republican cheerleader.

I am not expecting another Florida 2000. This will not be close enough for one state to swing it.

and you'd be right, kinda like the useful idiots who cheer for ... the other side ... as for one state, you may be right but i still think ohio is massively important

[Vampyr]

 nigel_k, on 2012-October-26, 14:13, said:

That's where Obama excels. Plus, he has more money so can buy more ads.

About a month ago, according to the New Yorker, Romney had WAY more money than Obama. Has that changed?

[Vampyr]

 nigel_k, on 2012-October-26, 14:13, said:

That's where Obama excels. Plus, he has more money so can buy more ads.

About a month ago, according to the New Yorker, Romney had WAY more money than Obama. Has that changed?

[Flem72]

This whole polling business -- and I guess that's exactly what it is, a busness -- confuses the hell out of me. How can NYT/Silver claim O by that kind of margin, while Dick Morris predicts R gets 330-50 electoral votes?

[awm]

 Vampyr, on 2012-October-26, 17:55, said:

About a month ago, according to the New Yorker, Romney had WAY more money than Obama. Has that changed?

My understanding is that Obama raises money mostly from large numbers of small donations, whereas Romney's tends to come from smaller numbers of large donations. The US has campaign finance laws, which make it illegal for an individual to donate a large amount of money to a single politician's campaign. However, these have recently been effectively neutered by the Citizens United ruling, which allows unlimited donations to political action committees, which can then run ads as long as they "don't coordinate with the candidate."

The upshot is that Romney raises a lot of money for the Republican National Committee or for various PACs. Obama's campaign has more money than Romney's campaign, but if you count various other organizations Romney has raised more. This does give Romney some issues, in that he doesn't have direct control over much of the money he raises, but when you count all the spending there is more on the Republican side.

[BunnyGo]

 Flem72, on 2012-October-27, 08:18, said:

This whole polling business -- and I guess that's exactly what it is, a busness -- confuses the hell out of me. How can NYT/Silver claim O by that kind of margin, while Dick Morris predicts R gets 330-50 electoral votes?

The difference--at least to my mind--is that one of them using established and convincing statistics, the other is the reason for the joke: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Statistics aren't lies (full disclosure, I studied probability before I became a number theorist) but people who either:

a) don't know better
b) willfully don't disclose assumptions
c) outright lie

can mislead people by using math to make it seem like they are telling the truth. Nate Silver has always gone above and beyond to say when he is unsure of his results, what his confidence interval is, what it all means, and what assumptions he is making. I leave it to you to conclude what I think of Morris's work and thoroughness.

[Bbradley62]

 Flem72, on 2012-October-27, 08:18, said:

This whole polling business -- and I guess that's exactly what it is, a busness -- confuses the hell out of me. How can NYT/Silver claim O by that kind of margin, while Dick Morris predicts R gets 330-50 electoral votes?

Dick Morris is a Republican Talking Head, not a non-partisan pollster. (He uses the first person when talking about the GOP.)

[lalldonn]

 Flem72, on 2012-October-27, 08:18, said:

This whole polling business -- and I guess that's exactly what it is, a busness -- confuses the hell out of me. How can NYT/Silver claim O by that kind of margin, while Dick Morris predicts R gets 330-50 electoral votes?

Wake us up if you find someone besides Nate who went 84/85 in the last election (and can explain the methodology they used to do it!)

[mike777]

538 has it:


295-246 as of 10/27
74.4%

Nate has the President increasing lead last 7-15 days while many/most others to think Romney is.

Per others...Penn and Mich now in play for Romney.

[BunnyGo]

 mike777, on 2012-October-27, 21:30, said:

538 has it:


295-242 as of 10/27
74.4%

Nate has the President increasing lead last 7-15 days while many/most others to think Romney is.

Per others...Penn and Mich now in play for Romney.

FYP

The others are using Gallop quite strongly, and generally don't weight state polls as heavily, which is a shame because confidence intervals on the state level are generally tighter.

And I'll take bets if anybody wants to bet on Romney winning Michigan. Same for Pennsylvania.

[mike777]

 BunnyGo, on 2012-October-27, 22:34, said:

FYP

The others are using Gallop quite strongly, and generally don't weight state polls as heavily, which is a shame because confidence intervals on the state level are generally tighter.

And I'll take bets if anybody wants to bet on Romney winning Michigan. Same for Pennsylvania.

ty for post but you dont give odds?


100-1?

taking bets can at times be confusing but ok ]give odds ....

in any case agree see silver...

[mike777]

fwiw

I thought the first 5 minutes tonight of SNL...really on target....not funny but on target,,,


Ihope next week...funny.

[ArtK78]

 mike777, on 2012-October-27, 23:17, said:

fwiw

I thought the first 5 minutes tonight of SNL...really on target....not funny but on target,,,


Ihope next week...funny.

Mike:

It was a rerun.

[mike777]

 ArtK78, on 2012-October-27, 23:38, said:

Mike:

It was a rerun.

my point....rerun
-----------


but fwiw

I am shocked by ND win wow......

FL loses...ND ..OK lose...wow....

Who the heck thinks Irish can win in 2012?

--

I fully grant 4 americans killed in Lybia...I understand you had no idea

[luke warm]

 BunnyGo, on 2012-October-27, 22:34, said:

And I'll take bets if anybody wants to bet on Romney winning Michigan. Same for Pennsylvania.

ok, what odds you giving?