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Romney vs. Obama Can Nate Silver be correct?

#1101 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 07:32

View Postphil_20686, on 2012-November-15, 06:49, said:

My generation puts their diagnoses on facebook for the whole world to see.

I'd bet that in 20 years you will come to think this is a bad idea after all.
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#1102 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 07:52

View PostTimG, on 2012-November-15, 07:22, said:


I don't see why this should be dominating the news. CIA director had an affair, decided to resign as a result, resignation was accepted. Let's move on. No need for rubbernecking.


Agree. But, a fair portion of the public loves a good scandal, and the media love to show it for them to watch. I think they are hoping for something really juicy, like maybe a prostitute service for top brass in Tampa. Not likely, but not unprecedented, so hope lives on.

Then again, there is always the small chance of a serious security breach, so perhaps the feds should investigate at least enough to determine that.
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#1103 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 08:22

View Postbillw55, on 2012-November-15, 07:32, said:

I'd bet that in 20 years you will come to think this is a bad idea after all.


Perhaps, but the tide is running the other way at the moment. Mental health charities seem perennially on campaign for people to be more open about their mental health. And it feels strange that when one is required to put sexual orientation, religious affiliation, and any physical or mental illnesses on job applications "for diversity monitoring", which are read by strangers, that we should consider it private information.
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#1104 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 08:26

View Postphil_20686, on 2012-November-15, 08:22, said:

Perhaps, but the tide is running the other way at the moment. Mental health charities seem perennially on campaign for people to be more open about their mental health. And it feels strange that when one is required to put sexual orientation, religious affiliation, and any physical or mental illnesses on job applications "for diversity monitoring", which are read by strangers, that we should consider it private information.

Different cultures I guess. In the USA, it is illegal to ask for such information in an application or interview.
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#1105 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 08:42

View PostTimG, on 2012-November-15, 07:22, said:


I don't see why this should be dominating the news. CIA director had an affair, decided to resign as a result, resignation was accepted. Let's move on. No need for rubbernecking.



Largely I agree, although I confess to being, for the moment, one of the rubberneckers. Part of it has to do with worldview, perhaps. In tenure decisions we have to decide what is and what is not our business. For me, sexual issues are on the "not my business" list, as long as they obey Ms. Campbell's injunction about not frightening the horses. It is said that military officers take such matters far more seriously. I have never been in the military but from my outsider observations I think this claim of purity is more than a bit overstated.

And of course there always is the less admirable but sometimes hard to resist interest in trash. I'm pretty immune to stuff about rock stars and such. Mostly I don't even know their names. But this story has some clout, I guess. The first one I can recall that made such a splash was Christine Keeler, maybe fifty years ago. Time Magazine (I think it was Time) had a picture of her that I still can see in my mind.

But really I agree. We know all we need to know, time to move on.
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#1106 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 08:43

View Postbillw55, on 2012-November-15, 08:26, said:

Different cultures I guess. In the USA, it is illegal to ask for such information in an application or interview.

The information won't be disclosed to the interview pannel. It is for the HR department to check if the probability of rejection depends on your skin colour and such.
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#1107 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 08:59

View Postbillw55, on 2012-November-15, 07:52, said:

Then again, there is always the small chance of a serious security breach, so perhaps the feds should investigate at least enough to determine that.

Sure, the Feds should look into that, but no need to involve the general public in that process.
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#1108 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 09:51

View Posthelene_t, on 2012-November-15, 08:43, said:

The information won't be disclosed to the interview pannel.

Different cultures again. Over here, most people would not trust this assertion. I envy yours in this regard, if people and corporations are honest enough for this to be taken for granted, and adhered to.

View PostTimG, on 2012-November-15, 08:59, said:

Sure, the Feds should look into that, but no need to involve the general public in that process.

Agree, in fact it probably hampers the actual investigation.

Although in fairness, this matter did proceed non-publicly for a while. It was outed by Petraeus' resignation, which could not feasibly be kept from the public (although perhaps the reasons could have been).
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#1109 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 10:03

View Postbillw55, on 2012-November-15, 09:51, said:

Different cultures again. Over here, most people would not trust this assertion. I envy yours in this regard, if people and corporations are honest enough for this to be taken for granted, and adhered to.


Most likely the information is optional -- I know I would never provide it.

Of course, optional information can be tricky. I don't think it is legal to ask an applicant's age, but I believe that most people include it on their CV. So if it's not there, the applicant would probably prefer the employer didn't know.
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#1110 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 10:32

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-15, 08:42, said:

It is said that military officers take such matters far more seriously. I have never been in the military but from my outsider observations I think this claim of purity is more than a bit overstated.

I think it depends on the specific issue. Two incidents I recall from my Navy career. During my first tour, on a ship homeported in Japan, I learned that the CO of one of the other ships there and his wife divorced — and she promptly married the XO of the same ship. This seemed bizarre to me, since the CO wrote the XO's fitness reports. But that's all I know about that incident — for all I know the divorce was amicable and the CO bore no ill will towards either his ex-wife or his XO. Still, ship's parties were probably awkward.

The other incident, in another command, involved rumors of sexual misconduct between an enlisted woman and several different officers (this was a training command with a larger than usual proportion of officers to enlisted). There was an investigation, the rumors were determined to be false, and still the Commodore addressed all the officers in the command, saying, among other things "it is not enough that an officer avoid impropriety. An officer must also avoid the appearance of impropriety."

Another point: it is part of military culture that you have your shipmate's back, and he yours. So sleeping with his wife, or he sleeping with yours, is generally deprecated as indicating a lack of trustworthiness — and you don't want to go into combat with someone you don't trust supposedly watching your back.
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#1111 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 11:20

Even in academia I think sleeping with a colleagues spouse would be a really bad idea. It happens, but sure it would cause problems.

Added; I don't want to be misunderstood about relations with non-colleagues. I and everyone I know would not think highly of a married colleague who is carrying on an affair with anyone. All I mean is that we would not take it out on him/her professionally. We would see it is not our business. Now if the adulterer's partner is the spouse of a colleague, that's jut plain stupid. If this causes problems, don't come to me for help.
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#1112 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-November-15, 20:34

From G.O.P. Governors Meet, Amid Whispers of 2016

Quote

LAS VEGAS — The polite praise initially showered upon Mitt Romney for having waged a good fight against President Obama has given way to a plea from some Republicans: Please stop talking.

A week after the election, as Republicans examine how to recalibrate and regain their footing, Mr. Romney’s suggestion that he lost the race because of the “gifts” that Mr. Obama gave to black, Latino and young voters did not sit well with some party leaders gathered here for a meeting of the Republican Governors Association.

Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana grew visibly agitated when asked about the comments that Mr. Romney made during a conference call with donors on Wednesday. Mr. Jindal said the party’s future depended on expunging the mind-set that Republicans are not committed to policies that benefit “every American who wants to pursue the American dream — period.”

“If we learn one thing from this campaign, we had better learn as a party that we’ve got to go after every single vote,” Mr. Jindal said in an interview. “We need to say that, and we need to believe that.”

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#1113 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-16, 07:55

There are times that I feel left out. The Republicans did not get my vote, and they lost the election. They will now try to figure out how to get the Latino vote. Perhaps they will try for the Black vote. Who knows, maybe they will go after the Gay vote. Would they, just for the hell of it, be interested in trying for my vote?

Why I am looking at this identity politics stuff, I see that Obama got 39% of the White vote. The percentage of White Male votes ( I am uncertain when upper case is preferred to lower case in demographics, so I decided to just try for consistency) is even smaller. Does this concern the Democrats? Is it their plan to concede the White vote to the Republicans, just as Romney conceded the Freeloader vote to the Democrats?

I just want to toss an idea out on the field for consideration. Perhaps running a strong candidate on a platform of well thought out economic, educational, and defense policies would get some votes from White people, Black People, Latino People, Gay People, and Straight people.

Probably a nutty idea, but I just thought I would put it out there.
Ken
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#1114 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-November-16, 08:01

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-16, 07:55, said:

There are times that I feel left out. The Republicans did not get my vote, and they lost the election. They will now try to figure out how to get the Latino vote. Perhaps they will try for the Black vote. Who knows, maybe they will go after the Gay vote. Would they, just for the hell of it, be interested in trying for my vote?

Why I am looking at this identity politics stuff, I see that Obama got 39% of the White vote. The percentage of White Male votes ( I am uncertain when upper case is preferred to lower case in demographics, so I decided to just try for consistency) is even smaller. Does this concern the Democrats? Is it their plan to concede the White vote to the Republicans, just as Romney conceded the Freeloader vote to the Democrats?

I just want to toss an idea out on the field for consideration. Perhaps running a strong candidate on a platform of well thought out economic, educational, and defense policies would get some votes from White people, Black People, Latino People, Gay People, and Straight people.

Probably a nutty idea, but I just thought I would put it out there.

Bill Clinton tried this and look where it got him.
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#1115 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2012-November-16, 08:12

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-16, 07:55, said:


Why I am looking at this identity politics stuff, I see that Obama got 39% of the White vote. The percentage of White Male votes ( I am uncertain when upper case is preferred to lower case in demographics, so I decided to just try for consistency) is even smaller. Does this concern the Democrats? Is it their plan to concede the White vote to the Republicans, just as Romney conceded the Freeloader vote to the Democrats?



Ken, I recommend looking at the cross tabs.

The Democrats don't have a white male problem, rather they have a "Southern White Male" problem.

I, for one, think that we're better off without them.
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#1116 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-November-16, 08:12

View Posty66, on 2012-November-16, 08:01, said:

Bill Clinton tried this and look where it got him.

As I recall, he was elected and reelected and is now a highly respected senior statesman.

Not that there is anything wrong with that.
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#1117 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2012-November-16, 08:16

View PostArtK78, on 2012-November-16, 08:12, said:

and is now a highly respected senior statesman.

Not amongst "Southern White Males".
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#1118 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2012-November-16, 08:49

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-16, 07:55, said:

Why I am looking at this identity politics stuff, I see that Obama got 39% of the White vote. The percentage of White Male votes ( I am uncertain when upper case is preferred to lower case in demographics, so I decided to just try for consistency) is even smaller. Does this concern the Democrats? Is it their plan to concede the White vote to the Republicans, just as Romney conceded the Freeloader vote to the Democrats?


I predict that the next time the Democratic candidate is a white male, his share of the white male vote will be higher than Obama's.
http://www.theatlant...lection/258322/
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#1119 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2012-November-16, 09:59

View Posthelene_t, on 2012-November-15, 08:43, said:

The information won't be disclosed to the interview pannel. It is for the HR department to check if the probability of rejection depends on your skin colour and such.

I can understand that with respect to skin color. After all, the interview panel might reject an applicant based on skin color. Unless s/he is wearing a burqa, the interview panel will know the applicant's skin color.

But for sexual orientation, or religious affiliation I don't understand that at all. How is an interviewer supposed to know about my religion (if any) or whether I fancy men or women?

Do we really try to impress interviewers with lines like: "Hey you pretty thing.. your house of worship or mine?"

Rik
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#1120 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2012-November-16, 10:28

View Postcherdano, on 2012-November-16, 08:49, said:

I predict that the next time the Democratic candidate is a white male, his share of the white male vote will be higher than Obama's.
http://www.theatlant...lection/258322/

An alternative conclusion from that research is that people who don't use racist search terms tend to have a pro-black-candidate bias, no? Or am I missing something?

I am not saying this is plausible, just trying to be the advocate of the devil.
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