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Romney vs. Obama Can Nate Silver be correct?

#1061 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 08:16

View PostWinstonm, on 2012-November-11, 08:04, said:

which seems beyond the grasp of some of our evolutionary cousins.

There is no such thing as Evolution., just a myth of the Liberal media.
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#1062 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 08:21

View Postmike777, on 2012-November-11, 06:59, said:

btw she lives a few miles down the road from me...in the same area as John edwards mistress.

She is married to a doc and has 2 young kids.

One does wonder why this third party was so scared they went to the FBI for help.


No doubt, absolutely no doubt, we will learn more as time goes on. Accorfing to the Washington Post story this morning, the "third woman" brought it up first with Petraeus and there are some e-mails from Petraeus to Broadwell addressing the needto knock off the harassment. . If, after that, the threats continued I w I can easily see contacting the FBI. Apparently the threats lacked sufficient specificity to warrant criminal charges but that doesn't mean they should not be taken seriously. It's always sort of a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation when trying to assess the credibility of threats.

I have no interest in making moral judgments here, but as a practical matter if you get involved with someone who is married you accept, or should accept, that you cannot have the fully developed relationship that you can have with an unattached person. His relationship to his wife is not your business, and whatever he is or is not doing with this third woman is not your business. If you want a guy that you can make demands on, don't choose a married one. And, for that matter, it is best not to be married yourself. And for God's sake, don't send detailed e-mails.

My wife read a story about a guy who got a divorce because his wife had put details of an affair she was having on her Facebook page. I am not sure whether the grounds were infidelity or idiocy.
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#1063 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 08:54

View PostWinstonm, on 2012-November-11, 08:04, said:

The narrative should be derived from interpreting the data, not the other way around. Of course, this means one must be willing to change one's opinion, which seems beyond the grasp of some of our evolutionary cousins.

Now that the results are in, Nate Silver can calculate the final rankings of all the professional pollsters for this election: Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race

Quote

As Americans’ modes of communication change, the techniques that produce the most accurate polls seems to be changing as well. In last Tuesday’s presidential election, a number of polling firms that conduct their surveys online had strong results. Some telephone polls also performed well. But others, especially those that called only landlines or took other methodological shortcuts, performed poorly and showed a more Republican-leaning electorate than the one that actually turned out.

A good time for everyone to buy Nate's book.
:)
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#1064 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 09:00

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-11, 08:21, said:

No doubt, absolutely no doubt, we will learn more as time goes on. According to the Washington Post story this morning, the "third woman" brought it up first with Petraeus and there are some e-mails from Petraeus to Broadwell addressing the needto knock off the harassment.

I read that story too and had seen Broadwell on TV promoting her book. Now it seems that ber book's title, All In, has several levels of meaning...
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#1065 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 10:38

Perhaps we know who wrote this question now.
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#1066 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 10:42

View PostTimG, on 2012-November-11, 08:16, said:

There is no such thing as Evolution., just a myth of the Liberal media.

Of course. There is too much naturally occurring heat buildup on the planet to sustain an evolution of creatures, much less a change to sustainable energy sources. ;)
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#1067 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 11:21

ya something wierd is going on ...

I mean who goes to the FBI rather than your local police for some email harassment.

And then the FBI takes the case....sounds like someone big...

Keep in mind we are told the FBI at this point had no idea about the CIA being involved.
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#1068 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 13:52

View PostBunnyGo, on 2012-November-11, 10:38, said:

Perhaps we know who wrote this question now.


Fascinating! It seems at least plausible that you are right. I think I agree with the columnists skepticism about the reason for writing.

There is an old, fun but not particularly recommended, movie Love in the Afternoon with Gary Cooper and Audrey Hepburn. Hepburn is the daughter of a private eye who has determined that Gary Cooper is having an affair with the wife of the PI's client. The husband has purchased a gun and is discussing the situation with the PI. It goes something like:
PI: Don't shoot yourself, you can get over this
Husband: Shoot myself, why would I shoot myself? I have done nothing wrong.
PI: They will put you in jail for shooting your wife.
H: My wife? I love my wife, why would I shoot my wife?
PI: Ah, I see.

The man has a problem. Honestly, Paula Broadwell sounds like a fascinating woman. She also sounds like someone I would not want to be married to. We all make our choices.

In the movie, Hepburn warns Cooper, pretends to be a sophisticated woman of the world, falls for Cooper, he falls for her, the movie ends happily. That's the movies for you. (I cannot imagine I have ruined it for anyone by blabbing the very predictable ending.)
Ken
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#1069 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 17:17

It appears that the third party was a woman who was a close friend of the General.

She received threatening, jealous emails and went to the FBI.

At this point we dont know if the third party was also having an affair or was just a close friend.

btw Broadwell is a LT Col and an expert marksman.


senior U.S. military official identified the second woman Jill Kelley, 37, who lives in Tampa, Fla., and serves as the State Department's liaison to the military's Joint Special Operations Command, where among other duties, secret drone missions are worked on.

The military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to publicly discuss the investigation, said Kelley had received harassing emails from Broadwell, which led the FBI to examine her email account and eventually discover her relationship with Petraeus.

A friend of Kelley and Petraeus, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, also said the two saw each other often, but the nature of their friendship was unclear.

http://news.yahoo.co...-195406888.html
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#1070 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2012-November-12, 05:09

View Postmike777, on 2012-November-11, 11:21, said:

ya something wierd is going on ...

I mean who goes to the FBI rather than your local police for some email harassment.

And then the FBI takes the case....sounds like someone big...

Keep in mind we are told the FBI at this point had no idea about the CIA being involved.


From today's NYT (You know, the useless biases MSM source that employees Nate Silver)

Quote

The involvement of the F.B.I., according to government officials, began when Ms. Kelley, alarmed by about half a dozen anonymous e-mails accusing her of inappropriate flirtatious behavior with Mr. Petraeus, complained to an F.B.I. agent who is also a personal friend. That agent, who has not been identified, helped get a preliminary inquiry started. Agents working with federal prosecutors in a local United States attorney’s office began trying to figure out whether the e-mails constituted criminal cyber-stalking.

Alderaan delenda est
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#1071 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-12, 07:38

Life would be simpler if everything was clearcut with indisputable interpretations. Instead, we often have to use our experience to decide if something sounds plausible. For me, if a woman (or a man, but woman in this case) receives strange and hostile e-mails from someone whom she doesn't much know or at least is not at all her friend, it is very reasonable to think she would decide it's better to be safe than sorry and take some sort of action. It's in the nature of e-mail that it crosses state lines so the feds seem the natural people to contact. And if she has a friend in the FBI, that seems a reasonable place to start for advice. This seems totally natural to me.

As for Petraeus, I have been impressed by how shocked his friends and staff were. I do not at all live in the fast lane, but I have heard of such misbehavior before, sometimes even with those I like and respect. In the Post this morning someone was quoted as saying he thought perhaps the change from the structured life of the military to civilian life played a role. I don't think that's crazy at all. But anyway, he would not be the first guy approaching sixty to get involved with a younger woman. (Before my re-marriage eighteen years ago, my daughter put forth a rule that I was not allowed to date anyone younger than she was.) Apparently those who know him are authentically shocked.

As for Ms. Broadwell, I can see the attraction and I don't mean just her good looks. Intelligent, hard driving, physically strong, competitive. This can be attractive. Unfortunately she also appears to have a possessive jealous streak. And perhaps a weak ability to judge, or be influenced by, the consequences of her actions.

Everyone involved in this mess has my sympathy. Ms. Kelley and her family are at the top of my sympathy list.
Ken
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#1072 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2012-November-13, 04:04

Good article in Mother Jones

http://www.motherjon...id-petraeus-fbi
Alderaan delenda est
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#1073 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2012-November-13, 09:11

Texas wants to secede. LOL
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#1074 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2012-November-13, 09:23

View PostVampyr, on 2012-November-13, 09:11, said:

Texas wants to secede. LOL


They keep promising us, but never seem to come through when it counts...
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#1075 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-13, 09:24

View PostVampyr, on 2012-November-13, 09:11, said:

Texas wants to secede. LOL

Imagine how long our border fence would have to be if that happened!
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#1076 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-November-13, 09:59

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-12, 07:38, said:

Everyone involved in this mess has my sympathy. Ms. Kelley and her family are at the top of my sympathy list.

Her family yes, not so sure about Ms. Kelley herself. The articles I have read describe her as an "unpaid social liaison" - what does that mean exactly? - who is not a government employee. And now it is found that she is involved somehow with another top general, to the tune of thousands of pages of communications, some of which are deemed "inappropriate," without further detail. Furthermore, she seems to have been involved somehow with the FBI agent who originally investigated her harassment complaint. It all sounds pretty fishy to me.

Then again, maybe there is nothing to it. I have been wrong before.
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#1077 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-13, 10:10

View Posthrothgar, on 2012-November-13, 04:04, said:

Good article in Mother Jones

http://www.motherjon...id-petraeus-fbi


Not the sort of piece that inspires confidence. Late in the article it says "Later, the agent became convinced — incorrectly, the official said — that the case had stalled.". But everything above that in the article suggests that the case was indeed stalled and deservedly so. They quote a source as describing the e-mails as More like, 'Who do you think you are? ... You parade around the base ... You need to take it down a notch,'"If that's really all there was, I can imagine the investigation getting stalled. Dumped, actually. But then it might depend. If there are three or four such messages a day I can imagine some concern. At any rate, the author of the article seems to first explain why there was absolutely no case to be made and then later explain that of course the case was not stalled. He seems to have no problem in simultaneously accepting both of these with no skepticism.

There will be many articles on this, no doubt. Today in the Post, Richard Cohen quotes three rules of life from Nelson Algren:
"Never play cards with a man called Doc. Never eat at a place called Mom's. Never sleep with a woman whose troubles are worse than your own."

Seems like good advice, and I'll leave it at that.
Ken
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#1078 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2012-November-13, 10:36

hmmm ...**** generals put their brains off, states want to secede ....what's going on in the God's own country :o
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#1079 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2012-November-13, 11:26

View PostPassedOut, on 2012-November-13, 09:24, said:

Imagine how long our border fence would have to be if that happened!


The Texans would probably build it for us.
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#1080 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2012-November-13, 16:33

i'm still a tad upset that nobody has questioned the fbi's involvement in all this, especially the reading of private emails
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