The only lead for 2HX is a heart.
Partner reopens, matchpoints
#22
Posted 2012-April-25, 17:11
I was thinking pass when I first read the post.
After reading the replies I'm now convinced.
After reading the replies I'm now convinced.
#23
Posted 2012-April-26, 05:44
nigel_k, on 2012-April-25, 14:38, said:
The problem is about comparing your expected score from defending 2♥X with your expected score from playing 3♣. Trying to figure out what we expect for playing 3♣ is obviously a big part of that. If the suggestion is that, because this is hard to figure out and our estimate might be wrong, we should just assume that playing 3♣ will be worth 50%, then I don't think *that* is the right way to think about this problem, or any problem.
I do not buy this.
If 2♥ is going to make, 3♣ will be worth much more than 50%, even if 3♣ fails. It all boils down whether you will bring down 2♥.
In my long and rather sad experience, this is a very different proposition from whether 2♥ can be brought down double dummy, though I would take my chances if I knew that is the case.
Rainer Herrmann