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Insanity check

#1 User is offline   Furlan 

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Posted 2012-April-17, 23:11


IMPs. Carding agreements are simply "UDCA", no further discussion.

Q, 5, 2, 8
Now what and why?
Partner, I don't play tempo signals...
43 44 43 24
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#2 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2012-April-17, 23:59

I think our chances to defeat this 3 NT depends on what pd holds. He cant have much. From bidding he is also known to hold at least 4-4 majors and in order for us to have a chance he must have 2 + 3.

We are hoping pd to hold something like

Kxxx
Jxxx
T9x
xx

or

Jxxx
Jxxx
T9x
xx

or

Jxxx
xxxx
Qxx
xx

Basically, declarer ducking the 1st is an indicator that he cant see 9th trick without having to concede a trick to defense and this is most likely the suit. Pd has at most K (if he has Ace we defeat this anyway, we dont have to play the suit)

So declarer is probably

AKx
xxx
QJxx
Kxx

without guessing the J finesse he has 3+2 and if he took the first he was dead anyway, and when ducked now he cant come to 9 tricks if we just exit with even if he manages to make 3 tricks without letting our pd to hold the hand. He has to let you hold 1 time in both red suits thats 2 tricks for defense + 1st trick and u wait with AQ all day long after that.
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#3 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2012-April-18, 02:26

playing udca partner can be singleton of have Kx2. playing him for K its a bit odd on the bidding, so singleton is the most likelly.

switching is the best thing we can do, and the best suit we can switch to is hearts, with K in case declarer has singleton J
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#4 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2012-April-18, 03:23

k looks right to me.
The physics is theoretical, but the fun is real. - Sheldon Cooper
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#5 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2012-April-18, 04:23

View PostMrAce, on 2012-April-17, 23:59, said:

...
Basically, declarer ducking the 1st is an indicator that he cant see 9th trick without having to concede a trick to defense and this is most likely the suit. Pd has at most K (if he has Ace we defeat this anyway, we dont have to play the suit)

So declarer is probably

AKx
xxx
QJxx
Kxx

without guessing the J finesse he has 3+2 and if he took the first he was dead anyway, and when ducked now he cant come to 9 tricks if we just exit with even if he manages to make 3 tricks without letting our pd to hold the hand. He has to let you hold 1 time in both red suits thats 2 tricks for defense + 1st trick and u wait with AQ all day long after that.

A good effort but not quite true against a competent declarer, who knows that he can make the contract only if you hold both red kings.
He will take the heart finesse, come to hand with a spade to play another heart from hand (letting your heart king hold whenever you play it), finish the hearts, then test the spades from the top and finally play A, diamond to endplay you in clubs.

Rainer Herrmann
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#6 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2012-April-18, 05:27

I do not think that a good declarer would bid that way with 3=3=4=3, preferring the money from 3 doubled instead.
It is hard to come up with a layout where the defense matters unless partner has a spade entry.
The best I can come up with is declarer having

AJ
xxx
QTxxx
K98

It is not immediately obvious, but an attack on declarer's entries by a switch to the 8 (of course not covered by partner) and careful defense thereafter beats the contract.
Declarer has in deed only 8 tricks and can not end-play West, if West unblocks the king precisely on the second round, assuming hearts are played from hand, so that declarer has to use up his entries from hand.
Declarer must let the K hold to keep East out. If the K still lives (threatening an end-play), you can continue with A and another, because declarer has used up his spade entries and the K will have been established as a fifth trick for the defense.
More likely declarer will play first on diamonds before playing the second round of hearts, but then you cannot get end-played anymore if you unblock the K on the second round and if you kept your third heart when declarer ran diamonds. Declarer has only 8 tricks.

Rainer Herrmann
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#7 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2012-April-18, 12:31

View Postrhm, on 2012-April-18, 05:27, said:

I do not think that a good declarer would bid that way with 3=3=4=3, preferring the money from 3 doubled instead.
It is hard to come up with a layout where the defense matters unless partner has a spade entry.
The best I can come up with is declarer having

AJ
xxx
QTxxx
K98

It is not immediately obvious, but an attack on declarer's entries by a switch to the 8 (of course not covered by partner) and careful defense thereafter beats the contract.
Declarer has in deed only 8 tricks and can not end-play West, if West unblocks the king precisely on the second round, assuming hearts are played from hand, so that declarer has to use up his entries from hand.
Declarer must let the K hold to keep East out. If the K still lives (threatening an end-play), you can continue with A and another, because declarer has used up his spade entries and the K will have been established as a fifth trick for the defense.
More likely declarer will play first on diamonds before playing the second round of hearts, but then you cannot get end-played anymore if you unblock the K on the second round and if you kept your third heart when declarer ran diamonds. Declarer has only 8 tricks.

Rainer Herrmann


Yes, thats much better imo. I guess i predicted hands for declarer that has more strength than 10 hcp, but this one you suggested is very reasonable to start with 2 and bid 3 NT.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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