[capncrunch]

Please review this bridge column, written by Frank Stewart:

http://baronbarclay.com/011212.html

In the second paragraph under "NINTH TRICK", I disagree with the sentence "If no ten or queen appeared, you'd be back to guessing." First, if west had shown out on either the first or second heart, whether or not the ten or queen appeared, you would lead a third heart through east to set up your ninth trick. That should be obvious, so maybe that is why it wasn't discussed.

However, if no ten or queen has appeared and both opponents have followed suit, I believe that you have better than 50-50 odds by leading a third heart, covering with the jack if east plays the ten, otherwise playing your nine. You will only fail to set up your ninth trick if west has all four of the remaining hearts.

[Phil]

I agree.

[aguahombre]

If one player shows out, the ten/queen have "appeared" in the other hand, if we allow the writer that literary license. So, Stewart has allowed for that.

Otherwise, your analysis seems right.