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Shift at matchpoints

#1 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2012-March-26, 20:50

Matchpoints


We played polish club on the occasion. 1 is 0-6any or 7-11 minor(s) with the latter being unlikely in lights of the final pass.
I led 9 and it went:

9, 3, Q, A
Q, 2, 4, 8
J, K, 6, 7

Now, we didn't have detailed agreements but 8 is probably smith echo (don't have T) and 7 has suit preference implications (UDCA but natural suit preference).
1N wasn't alerted but opponents are pick-up partnership and it's not uncommon for Polish people to play quite heavy NT's in this situations so as he usually is 15-17 he might well be 18 or even 19.
So, what do we play now ?

Feel free to comment on signalling if you have some good agreements to offer for the situation. I am mainly interested in thought process here so any insight is appreciated.
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#2 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-March-27, 10:12

With A98x would you lead the 9 or the lowest? If the lowest, then partner can safely play small from any Q-T holding at T1.

I would also think that partner can Smith to show you Qxxx, as well as QTx. The lead from J9x would be odd on this bidding.

There are 17 between our hand and dummy's. If declarer has 15-18, then partner has 5 to 8, so its more likely declarer has 17-18 and partner a max 1 response.

I am more inclined to place the hearts 4-4 since with a maximum 1 response, partner might have competed to 2 with five fair ones and 5-6 points.

Therefore, declarer appears to have QJx(x) ???? Kx(x) ATx(x) and partner 8(x)2, ???? ?xx(x), Qx(x). Declarer will have about 7 points in hearts, leaving partner with about three, but a lot of this depends on the location of the J.

Smashmouth defense would be a heart to partner's (hoped for) Ace, for a club through declarer's remaining Tx, but this is dependent on partner having three clubs, and the A which seems like an unlikely parlay.

OTOH, a heart shift could work out very bad if declarer has something like QJx, AQJ9, Kxx ATx.

Ducking the 1st spade looks very bad in retrospect. I know its critical if declarer has QJ dub (although I could duck the 2nd), but it seems I could have obtained the same information by winning the spades (K-A in that order to tell partner I do not like hearts), and retaining the option of defending passively. In addition, declarer might have been trying to set up a spade trick by force and playing a tricky Q from Qxx.

I do not like the position I am in since I am exposed to multiple endplays. Cashing my spade and leading a heart seems like the best bet - maybe partner has the magical Ace or KJTx.
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