[Hanoi5]

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A spade (6) was led to a confident Jack and Ace. ♦9 was returned, won in hand with the Ace. Dummy was entered with the ♣Q, a heart was played to the Queen and King and South led another club to the ace. How do you continue trumps?

I confess something told me hearts were not breaking and I even thought of playing the ♥A to try and catch a singleton K. But that ship has sailed, now what?

[pooltuna]

please reread your first sentence and explain how it relates to the diagram especially since neither the dummy or declarer holds either the confident jack or the ace.

[wyman]

I suspect RHO confidently won the J and (at T2) cashed the ♠A.

[Hanoi5]

Maybe I had to say that South led a spade to North's J. That LOL after winning played the ♠A and led the ♦9 to the third trick.

[wyman]

I can pick up (edit: for only 1 loser) one of the 4-1's by playing low to the ace, and that's a guaranteed line in the event that the hearts are 3-2, so I'll go ahead and do that.

[655321]

Pretty sure the ♥Q was winning the trick when I started my answer...

Did you happen to notice which heart your LOL North played on the first round? Anyway in the heart suit it is percentage to pay off to the stiff King, and pick up the singleton 3,5 and 6. Even if North did play the 3 you might decide that with a singleton trump South might have returned a diamond to give a diamond ruff, or that North with T653 would not just play her lowest trump all the time.

Either player knowing that trumps aren't breaking might have played another round of spades, not sure if it means anything that nobody did.

Also it may not matter much, but on general principles I would have won the ♦Q in dummy, preserving club entries for later on (crossing to ♦Q may sometimes run into diamond ruffs.)

[BunnyGo]

wyman, on 2011-August-18, 20:55, said:

I can pick up (edit: for only 1 loser) one of the 4-1's by playing low to the ace, and that's a guaranteed line in the event that the hearts are 3-2, so I'll go ahead and do that.

How is this any more guaranteed than low to the Jack?

[Hanoi5]

Yes, I forgot to write that the King took the Queen in that first round of trumps. Yes, North played the 3. I had planty of entries to either hand without touching diamonds, in what case might winning the ♦Q work?

So:

- ♥3 from North.
- No one returned spades (they're not good enough for this I think).
- South didn't return a diamond.

Does this make you lean towards one or the other having the hearts?

[wyman]

BunnyGo, on 2011-August-18, 21:32, said:

How is this any more guaranteed than low to the Jack?

I assumed the HQ held the trick, since he said he played a heart to the Q and a club to the ace. In that case, low to the jack makes us vulnerable to a diamond ruff.

But now OP has been edited, so that reply is nonsensical.

[655321]

Hanoi5, on 2011-August-18, 21:39, said:

in what case might winning the ♦Q work?

Maybe it isn't ever necessary I don't know, it is only a general principles thing. In your earlier version the ♥Q won and you crossed to dummy again in clubs. Now if diamonds are 4-1 dummy has no more entries until all the trumps are drawn, maybe it doesn't matter but if you used the ♦Q instead of the ♣Q dummy would still have a safe club entry.

Hanoi5, on 2011-August-18, 21:39, said:

Does this make you lean towards one or the other having the hearts?

Well as I said before it is hugely percentage to pay off to singleton King, i.e. play South for the hearts. Even if you assume that North would play the 3 100% of the time from T653, 3-KT65 occurs just as often as T653-K, and maybe North really would occasionally play the 5 or the 6.

[gnasher]

655321, on 2011-August-18, 22:08, said:

Well as I said before it is hugely percentage to pay off to singleton King, i.e. play South for the hearts. Even if you assume that North would play the 3 100% of the time from T653, 3-KT65 occurs just as often as T653-K, and maybe North really would occasionally play the 5 or the 6.

If you're going to play South for the heart length, why can't you play ace and queen?

[mfa1010]

If north randomizes his pips it is 3:1 now to play south for the heart length. Restricted choice.
To gnasher, we can't play A-Q because north might have KTxx. If the Q holds we can play low to the jack to guarantee the contract. Or enter dummy to play a small heart if we want to try for the overtrick.