[jschafer]

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Q♦ is led and when you play a spade from dummy RHO follow with the 5.

[inquiry]

There seems to be a lot of play required. The ♦Queen seems to be a singleton. Not sure that helps out calculations too much, other than making East with 5♠ very unlikely. While we know that West has only one diamond, his partner is likely to think West has ♦QJ9 and so we will probably not get best defense. Of course, in problem form we will.

i guess I am going to decide that West with AJ92 of spades would not be trying for a ruff, so I will play for spades to be 3=2, besides, I don't think I can survive West having AJ9x of spades anyway (maybe i could survive if he had AJ52). West is slightly more likely of course to have the long spades. I am not finessing East for the ♠Jack

If east has 5♦ and 2♠, his most likely split in the other two suits is 3♥ and 3♣ (5332 is more common than 5422 or 5431). Others are also possible.

I will play the King or queen here when East plays low. If West wins, presumably he will return a club or heart. If a heart, I play the JACK, if a club I win the ACE (yes if West has ♣QJ this is a mistake) and play another spade this time to the Queen. Assuming both follow (yes, big assumption) and no jack shows. I will cash all my top clubs, ruff and club and then play a spade. Whowever wins teh spade jack, if he returns the last club, I will probably let it win and force him to open hearts. Alternatively, i could ruff, and cross to dummy in diamonds, and exit a heart. East should be down to one heart and 3♦. If the ♥ is an honor I make, as west can't afford to overtake and if east wins he is endplayed.

A lot of playing to be done after trick one, so it is difficult to say for sure what line i would take with all the permutations, it will depend on what East discards on the third spade, etc.

[gnasher]

Ben, in your second line where you've ruffed a club, exited to ♠J, and then ruffed the fourth club, East can throw a diamond on the fourth club. Your first idea looks promising though.

(Edit: I've changed my mind about the trump suit, so I took that part out.)

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2011-February-20, 04:35

[gszes]

after opps win spade A if they return a club that is a good thing now the 2nd spade and 3rd spade (assuming it loses)will undoutedly get another club return. ruffing 3rd round of clubs now isnt a big problem since the 4th club will
remain in dummy as a pseudo threat. Opps knowing you are out of clubs will be less likely to think you might also be void in hearts so when you now run your spades (retaining 1) rho will almost assuredly let go of a dia (or more) and you are home free.
If opps switch to a heart you will just have to depend on luck becasue the backs of your card are no longer your ally.

[gnasher]

gszes, on 2011-February-21, 13:35, said:

when you now run your spades (retaining 1) rho will almost assuredly let go of a dia (or more) and you are home free.

If you run all but one of your trumps and RHO throws only one diamond, you're not home - you still have a diamond to lose, the diamonds are still blocked, and you have only one entry to hand.

[gszes]

correct in fact when you ruff the 3rd round of clubs you will
know right then if you can make it or not. rho has (in theory)
2 chances to toss a dia if none show up you are toast.
I was so happy using the term pseudo threat I quit looking at
the problem and the necessary dia blockage ty for pointing that out.