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Reevaluating AQ10 in opps suit

#1 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-October-11, 04:16

AQ10
653
983
A1053

NS vul, dealer south


ps-(1)-ps-(2)
ps-(ps)- X-(ps)
??


2 is weak but the opps have no about how weak.


EDIT: Forgot to mention 2NT would be scrambling so it is not an option now
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#2 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2010-October-11, 05:59

Are you thinking of passing this?? I'd just bid 3.
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#3 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2010-October-11, 08:40

3 seems awfully wimpy. 3NT should have some play.
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#4 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-October-11, 11:08

ArtK78, on Oct 11 2010, 09:40 AM, said:

3 seems awfully wimpy.  3NT should have some play.

if 3NT has play how do you think 2X was going to do?
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#5 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2010-October-11, 11:14

I doubt that I will beat it 4 tricks.
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Posted 2010-October-11, 11:19

ArtK78, on Oct 11 2010, 12:14 PM, said:

I doubt that I will beat it 4 tricks.

I take it you are 100% sure that 3NT will take 9 tricks then? :)
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#7 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-October-12, 17:44

thx for the replies, partner had

xx
Q109x
A10xx
KQ9

I made 3NT after J lead, for 96%, 2X I think would go just 1 down.
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Posted 2010-October-13, 04:31

it's a no branier pass for me, though :P
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#9 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-October-13, 05:03

BTW the play was kind of interesting counting exercise. Kind of the best hand I played in long time, the top for my current level I guess :P.

xx
Q109x
A10xx
KQ9


AQ10
xxx
98x
A10xx


J lead to the queen, and a heart, LHO raises with A to return a spade on wich RHO plays small. I take the 10.

I play another heart and now LHO produces 8. Time to think.

If J is on LHO's hands we already have 9 tricks by playing low, 3 spades, 2 hearts, 1 diamond, 3 clubs, even an overtrick is possible.

But LHO is almost marked with K since he never played a diamond, he cannot have KQJ, so at most he has J AJ KQ J for a total of 12, but that would be very rare play in the heart suit and very unlucky lie out.


Assuming K is in LHO's hands there is a play that guarantees 9 tricks, play the Q. The only real danger on this hand is that LHO has Jxxx, but if he has that he will have 2344 and the hearts are breaking 3-3 so Just winning Q and playing another guarantees the cotract. (While playing 10 will lead to 1 down if hearts are 3-3)


LHO happened to hold AKJ8 so he cashed 2 heart tricks on wich east pitched spades, and I pitched a diamond, next came a club. Wich I had to take with the King in dummy otherwise risking a block. Now clubs are most likelly 3-3, but it is still possible that RHO has 6214 with a stiff diamond honnor.



Nevermind, just duck a diamond now, whatever they return, cash the diamond ace and see if RHO has 1 or 2, We've got the full count of the hand, so if he has 2 diamonds clubs are 3-3 while if he has singleton make the marked finese against Jxxx
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