[vuroth]

Scoring: MP

(P) 2NT (P) ?

---

Where are we going, if anywhere?

[JLOGIC]

I would just bid texas here, but I don't think it's criminal or anything to transfer and pass if partner can't super accept at MP, just inferior imo.

If my partner was known to be a habitual upgrader as some are so that the range is really more like 19-20 I would just transfer and pass though.

[Phil]

Texas seems clear to me. The 6th heart is a pretty big card for game evaluation.

[neilkaz]

Phil, on Aug 3 2010, 10:51 AM, said:

Texas seems clear to me. The 6th heart is a pretty big card for game evaluation.

We agree and I would be suprised if a sim didn't show game to be a fav to make.

[jdonn]

It's my cutoff, Qxxxxx I would bid transfer to 3 and be happy whether partner did or didn't super accept.

[JLOGIC]

neilkaz, on Aug 3 2010, 11:07 AM, said:

Phil, on Aug 3 2010, 10:51 AM, said:

Texas seems clear to me. The 6th heart is a pretty big card for game evaluation.

We agree and I would be suprised if a sim didn't show game to be a fav to make.

I would actually be quite surprised if a sim showed that game WAS a favorite to make given that they always make the right lead and defense. Part of the value of this hand is that they will often lead wrong, and even if they don't their trick 2 problem will be completely brutal.

[vuroth]

Thanks.

I bid 3♦, and was fairly confident about it at the time. Later, it occurred to me that partner is a very good bet to have at least 3 hearts, and will have 4 not an insignificant percentage of the time, and I wondered if game was making often enough to try it.

W

[neilkaz]

JLOGIC, on Aug 3 2010, 11:32 AM, said:

neilkaz, on Aug 3 2010, 11:07 AM, said:

Phil, on Aug 3 2010, 10:51 AM, said:

Texas seems clear to me. The 6th heart is a pretty big card for game evaluation.

We agree and I would be suprised if a sim didn't show game to be a fav to make.

I would actually be quite surprised if a sim showed that game WAS a favorite to make given that they always make the right lead and defense. Part of the value of this hand is that they will often lead wrong, and even if they don't their trick 2 problem will be completely brutal.

Good point are double dummy sims!! Anyhow I expect game to be at least 50/50 in real life.

[bluecalm]

As your usual sim provider here it is:

2NT= 20-21 bal, 5M possible;
4♥ makes: 62% (1000 hands).

It of course doesn't mean that you should bid it because there are some hands which will carry you to game anyway if you bid transfer but 62% is ezy bash from my experience.

Opposite the same hand but with Q instead of K 4♥ makes 38%.

It seems that this JDonn has quite a judgment...

[vuroth]

Nice. Thanks, bluecalm.

[neilkaz]

bluecalm, on Aug 3 2010, 02:47 PM, said:

As your usual sim provider here it is:

2NT= 20-21 bal, 5M possible;
4♥ makes: 62% (1000 hands).

It of course doesn't mean that you should bid it because there are some hands which will carry you to game anyway if you bid transfer but 62% is ezy bash from my experience.

Opposite the same hand but with Q instead of K 4♥ makes 38%.

It seems that this JDonn has quite a judgment...

Thx very much for this result and now to test Josh's judgement if you've time for another sim. Lets say it is the same hand but Q85432 but that opener super accepts every hand with 4♥ except 3433 20 counts.

Once again, I expect game to be at least 50/50.

.. neilkaz ..

[gwnn]

bluecalm, how about Qxxxxx with a singleton?

[Cascade]

2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5%

2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9%

6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1%

***Corrected***

[neilkaz]

Cascade, on Aug 3 2010, 09:59 PM, said:

2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9%

6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 81.3%

Wayne, that is a shocking difference for the stiff!! Are you sure about that? I assume your sim allows for any reasonable 20-21 2NT opener and of course dummy's weak 6 carder is trump.

.. neilkaz .. just trying to learn when to force game with near trash opposite 2NT

[Cascade]

Whoops yes I have a bug.

Rerunning now will fix as soon as it is finished.

[Cascade]

The simulation parameters for partner's hand were:

20-21 hcp
any 4333, 4432 or 5332 hand
not four trumps unless 4333

[JLOGIC]

Cascade, on Aug 3 2010, 09:59 PM, said:

2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5%

2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9%

6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1%

***Corrected***

pfft guess I was wrong, at least I made the right bid Maybe I am too used to my partners having more like 19-20 with a 5 card suit, or 20-21 without one

[bluecalm]

It makes sense to do simuls opposite hands which doesn't super accept as if they do you are in game anyway.
I was writing long reply but then realized I have problems with some conditions when it comes to superaccepts and the results are not stable. I need to verify the results.

[jdonn]

JLOGIC, on Aug 3 2010, 11:15 PM, said:

Cascade, on Aug 3 2010, 09:59 PM, said:

2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5%

2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9%

6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1%

***Corrected***

pfft guess I was wrong, at least I made the right bid Maybe I am too used to my partners having more like 19-20 with a 5 card suit, or 20-21 without one

I actually think that's a more accurate sim. Plus they will superaccept lots of the ones that make game anyway. So maybe my judgment isn't so good!

[Cascade]

jdonn, on Aug 4 2010, 06:26 PM, said:

JLOGIC, on Aug 3 2010, 11:15 PM, said:

Cascade, on Aug 3 2010, 09:59 PM, said:

2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5%

2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9%

6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1%

***Corrected***

pfft guess I was wrong, at least I made the right bid Maybe I am too used to my partners having more like 19-20 with a 5 card suit, or 20-21 without one

I actually think that's a more accurate sim. Plus they will superaccept lots of the ones that make game anyway. So maybe my judgment isn't so good!

I attempted to remove the super-accepts.