[hrothgar]

Submitted by a friend

Red / Red, IMPs

Qxx
AJxx
JT
J98x

AKJxx
Qxx
K8x
Ax

You're the dealer, you bid with no bidding from the opponents
1N 2♣
2♠ 2N
3♠ 4♠
P

Heart ten opening lead. (I have put in all of the spots. Really.) Now what?

[Hanoi5]

I'm gonna start with a small heart from dummy.

[foo]

Hanoi5, on Aug 9 2010, 07:38 AM, said:

I'm gonna start with a small heart from dummy.

the ♥T is very likely a stiff.
If it is, and you duck it, They start by winning ♥K then getting a ♥ ruff.
Followed by Them getting 2 or 3 more tricks in the minors.
-1 or -2.

Does not look like you can afford to hope the ♥Q will win the opening lead.

[hrothgar]

foo, on Aug 9 2010, 05:51 PM, said:

Hanoi5, on Aug 9 2010, 07:38 AM, said:

I'm gonna start with a small heart from dummy.

the ♥T is very likely a stiff.

As opposed to

a doubleton or
top of a sequence or
a lead through dummy's presumed 4 card heart suit

I think that this assumption is pretty far out there.

Moreover, if the Ten of Hearts is a stiff, you're in pretty bad shape. (How are you planning to score your Diamond ruff without losing the lead 1-2 times?)

[Phil]

While I don't disagree with:

Quote

Moreover, if the Ten of Hearts is a stiff, you're in pretty bad shape.  (How are you planning to score your Diamond ruff without losing the lead 1-2 times?)

I do think a lead from KT9x is pretty unlikely if 2N promised 4♥ (did it? Did they ask?) with the lead coming around to shortness. If not, KT9x is somewhat normal. Even then, if it loses to the King and a heart comes back and its not ruffed we are cold (lose 2♦ + 1♥).

If the ♥Q wins, I can't tell if RHO ducked, which would be a strong play, or if LHO led from KT9x, but against most players, I'd have a good idea at the table.

[Cyberyeti]

foo, on Aug 9 2010, 09:51 AM, said:

Hanoi5, on Aug 9 2010, 07:38 AM, said:

I'm gonna start with a small heart from dummy.

the ♥T is very likely a stiff.
If it is, and you duck it, They start by winning ♥K then getting a ♥ ruff.
Followed by Them getting 2 or 3 more tricks in the minors.
-1 or -2.

Does not look like you can afford to hope the ♥Q will win the opening lead.

Nope, all you need is trumps 2-2 after the ruff (or 3 or 4 trumps with the 5 hearts), Q♦ on your right, A on your left and you can scramble this home so you're not dead even if the second heart is ruffed as your club loser goes on the 4th heart. If the second heart is not ruffed, or your Q scores, you're in better shape (although not necessarily that great if the lead is from 109xx as you'll probably get the hearts wrong later).