Codo, on Jul 26 2010, 04:31 AM, said:
Hi Ben,
I try to understand you scoring:
We have 26 pairs bidding this hand.
So, if we had scored this hand, the top score had been 52 points, the worst zero.
The first 11 tied, so they had scored 42 Matchpoints.
The next 10 tied for 20 MPs.
The next three tied for 6 Mps
And one pair had earned 2 mps and one a zero.
So... IF we all we had played a tourney the mps had been 42:20:6:2:0 ,not 10:5:3:1:0.
How did you calculate the scores?
I try to give the best contact you can reach as EW under the conditions given a 10, unless it is outstanding in which case it could get an 11 or 12. With that said, Hanoi5 is correct. I try to guess what the average result would be for different contracts based upon the EW hands consistent with NS bidding.
This is not always easy, because although one can calculate with the aid of simulation software the score for different contracts, one can't ignore that simulations use double dummy defense and declarer play. One has to take into account the real world expectations. So if you were to do this right, you would need to look at each simulation and say, what would teh opening lead be? How would declarer play, how would defense play? In other words, not take the double dummy result.
I do the best i can with the time i can contribute to this exercise. So here, I think reaching this 4S contract is great, especially from WEST. I estimated in my opinior that the field would not reach 4S by WEST in mass, so that "good contract" scores well. The fact that on the specific hand at the table the opener had the heart ACE=queen is immaterial for the score, what is the fact that opener has a.) and opening hand, and b.) long hearts both increase the odds he has the heart ace=queen. This makes spades a much better contract from WEST than East. I tried to factor that into account for 4S by East and various part scores, since clubs provides a place for losing hearts without a heart lead through the king.
Help
Board 2. Bidding Script: North overcalls 1♥ if available, passes otherwise. NS don't bid after this.
Notes: This is a big hand opposite a weak hand. Questions are will East bid 1♠ over 1♥ (game surely reached then, but wrong sided), or will he make a negative double (also reaching game fairly surely, but right sided). If East passes, the question is how does West reopen? If with a double, he is fairly sure he is going to wrong side the potential spade contract with heart lead through his Kx. On the other hand, 1♠ seems an underbid. A 1NT bid is about right on stregth, and might be the best choice. A lot of forum bidders solved this problem by opening WEST hand 2NT and after jacoby wondered what the problem was.