cherdanno, on Jul 26 2010, 03:35 AM, said:
I realize this point is moot, since nobody bid 4C, but I want to make it anyway to clarify how the scores are being assigned.
At The Bridge World's CTC, the scores are based on strict matchpoint expectancy. I.e., if you expect to score 60% of the matchpoints on average, then you get a 7 (top or 12).
Assuming we are using the same principle here, I don't understand the 10 for 4♣.
Anytime the games are making, 4♣ will score a near-zero, say 10% for winning against the slams. Anytime the games go down, you score 100%. So we should assign 4♣ a weighted average of the two, depending on how often the games are making - seems closer to average than a top to me, s.th. like a 7.
So again, I just posted this to understand whether scores are assigned by the same principle as in CTC.
4
♣ is scored high because it will make pretty much all the time. I forget the frequency of the others -- and i prefer not to use simulations but I had no choice on this one.
Simulations are a problem because doubleton queens get dropped offside 100% right, defense finds killing lead all the time,etc. If you care to suggest another order of scoring, then lets go there. This hand is one reason only 14 were scored initially. To really do the scoring fairly, i guess one has to do simulations for all boards and then compare of the ones that 4C makes, how does each of the other contracts do, and so forth... get the scores and matchpoint each result. But somehow factor in likely lines of play, which is what I did on other hands.
With other good hands available, i am sorry I included this one. But I thought 3NT wouldn't make enough of the time to deserve a good score (if first round of spades is ducked, then you can't take advantage of 4-4 spades, so simulations for that has to be too high). But once I went to simulations, i felt I would score it close to its percentage of making versus the other contracts.
Help
Board 8. Bidding Script: NS never bid.
Notes: I made a mistake picking this hand, as I thought it was a simple avoid 3NT. First on random NS hands, you don't need to avoid 3NT. Second, it turns out that a surprizing contract seems to offer the best chance for success. This one of the two I had to run ran simulations on to try to figure out the best spot. Four clubs makes most often, but when any of the games make, it gets a worse score, and four hearts made more often than 3NT and or with an extra trick. So, 4♥ won out.
4♥ew = 10, 4♣ = 9, 3New = 8, 4N = 6, 5C = 5, 2N = 3, 3D = 2, 4D = 1