[inquiry]

Scoring: MP

Board 11. Bidding Script: North overcalls 4♣ (if he can), south carries to 5♣. Should West open an unlikely 4♥ NS are out of the bidding.

This is one where i wondered if East would make a negative double over 4♣. The answer is a big YES for forum bidders. The second question I had was if WEST would bid 5♥ on his own in an auction that goes P=1♥=(4♣)=P=(5♣)=5♥=(P) and if he does, can East with first round control of ♣'s and undisplayed values find the pass? The answer today is yes, the answer in 2004 when this hand was played was no. Well done forum members. There is also a question about if pass of 5♣ would be forcing pass since passed hand opposite a preempt are at the five level.

5♠/5♥ew = 10, 5♣Xns=4, 5♣ns = 2,

---

5H W 17
6S e 4
5S W 1
5C N 1
5Cx N 1
6H W 1
5CxN 1
4H E 1

The 4♥ contract was due to an opening bid at the four level (4♣ namyats, so NS did not enter the bidding.

6S e Flycycle/Wackojack
6S E Codo-Fluffy
6S E helene_t-agusaris
6S E Hrothgar/Free
6H W tylere / bid_em_up
5S W lobowolf/bkjswan
5H W mbodell - javabean
5H W karlson/threenobob
5H W elianna/awm
5H W Siegmund/MSchmahl
5H W jlall/hanp
5H W CanadaGrl/Gerardo
5H W gnasher/catch22
5H W East4Evil/sohcahtoa
5H W bluecalm/redds
5H W peachy/lg62
5H W zasanya/ravia6
5H W rogerClee/cherdano
5H W kfay/jchiu
5H W sallyally/joylson
5H W tlgoodwin/timg
5H W mohitz/akjq
5H W kristen33/jillybean
5CxN cascade kermit
5Cx N jdonn/gib
5C N ant590 - crayzeejim
4H E olegru - driver733
NA 0 j0i/gwnn
NA 0 Tomi2-JHDW
NA 0 Vampyr/Lamford

[Fluffy]

if 4♥ doesn't score more than 5 something must be wrong. can't trumps be 4-0?

[TylerE]

Are the slams truly a zero? In every field there's always someone who leads trumps against a slam, and on a non ♣ lead 6♥ is cold as long as hearts are 4-0.

[bluecalm]

Our auction:

1♣* - 4♣ - dbl** - 5♣
5♥ - pass....

1♣ = 16+
dbl = GF (so 8+ basically)

Precision makes contested auctions so ezy.. .

[kayin801]

bluecalm, on Jul 27 2010, 07:12 PM, said:

Our auction:

1♣* - 4♣ - dbl** - 5♣
5♥ - pass....

1♣ = 16+
dbl = GF (so 8+ basically)

Precision makes contested auctions so ezy.. .

Same here, except I bid 4♠

[inquiry]

Fluffy, on Jul 27 2010, 01:56 PM, said:

if 4♥ doesn't score more than 5 something must be wrong. can't trumps be 4-0?

You are absolutely correct! I didn't initially imagine a four level opening bid, because it is too strong for my personal "namyats" and never went back to re-evaluate the scoring given the possibility of a 4♥ contract. (I generated all scores before checking the contracts people actually reached).

So in fact, the only "10" needs to be 4♥. This is sad in a way, because that auction was announced at the table as a mistake. But as far as the classical definition of namyats, this hand seems mayb fit nicely, 8 tricks, 3 quick tricks, no void, good suit.

So, thanks to Fluffy pointing out the error of my ways, I am reconsidering the following based on simulations of north having seven to eight clubs and weak hand, suggest that:

4H makes 100% of the time
5H makes 77% of the time
5S makes 63% of the time.

With that background, the scores need to be changed...

4♥ should get an 11,
5♥ should get less, how about 77% of 11?
5♠ should get less, how about 63% if 11?

That makes it
4♥ = 11, 5♥= 8, 5♠ = 7

Any other suggestions?

[awm]

I don't think north has eight clubs. South raising on singleton would be rather unusual...

Not sure how this effects the odds.

[inquiry]

awm, on Jul 27 2010, 10:23 PM, said:

I don't think north has eight clubs. South raising on singleton would be rather unusual...

Not sure how this effects the odds.

If you force north to have just 7 clubs, then 5♥ and 5♠ both make a little more often: 5♥ is now 79% and enough for a 9 out of 12 score, 5♠ is 66%, which stays at 7 out of 12.

Think that is fairer? I am leaning towards that score.

[bluecalm]

Why wouldn't they bid 5♣ after namyats being nonvul at MP's ?

[inquiry]

bluecalm, on Jul 27 2010, 11:34 PM, said:

Why wouldn't they bid 5♣ after namyats being nonvul at MP's ?

Because north only was willing to go to 4♣ by himself. perhaps with a weak hand and long clubs he might double 4♣ opening bid, but the confusion of weak versus strong for that double could be very problematic. The script had no 5♣ overcall. In fact, many already complained about the four club call...

[Codo]

I disliked the hand when I saw it at the table and I still do.

You get the top score if you see that the opponents bid this way with seven opposite two clubs. If one of them had his bid, you had missed an ice cold slam.

But maybe my rl opponents have read too many books about the law and don't do this to me often enough to compete well in a BC.

[gnasher]

We bid

  1♥ 4♣ pass 5♣
  5♥

I don't find that sequence very convincing.

[Cyberyeti]

If you have one spade trick and one heart trick, or 2 hearts, aren't you taking 500 out of 5Cx with the diamond ruff so isn't this better than 5M at love all.

I would have thought 1237 opposite 4252 is quite likely here for the oppos.

[Fluffy]

we raised 5♠ to 6 wich IMO was an overbid.

Still awarding zero to 6♠ is too much IMO, but I am complaining on all boards lol.

On the NS lay out on the hand, south had ♦QJ10xx, it is not a zero% posibility, and if you have any% of getting a cold top you don't get a cold bottom on average.

Also if south is allowed to have 1 club an ♠A.....

[awm]

It's actually pretty interesting to think about the N/S shapes here. Why did south raise to 5♣? If he has only two (or even fewer!) clubs it seems like kind of a weird raise, especially if he doesn't have shortness in a side suit. If north has exactly seven clubs, he probably wouldn't bid 4♣ with 2227. I'll assume north doesn't have a diamond void, since that leaves south with 8 diamonds to the KQJT (which he might've bid, at some point).

1237 :: 4252 5♣X is +500
3217 :: 2272 5♣X is +500
2317 :: 3172 5♣X is +500
1327 :: 4162 5♣X is +500
2137 :: 3352 5♣X is +500
3127 :: 2362 5♣X is +500
0337 :: 5152
3037 :: 2452 5♥ fails
1417 :: 4072 5♥ fails
4117 :: 1372 5♣X is +800
1147 :: 4342 probably not a raise
0247 :: 5242 5♣X is +500
0427 :: 5062 5♥ fails
2047 :: 3442 5♥ fails
4027 :: 1462 5♥ fails

Some 7-5 hand is possible I guess. But looking at the above, 5♣X seems a lot better than 5♥ almost no matter how you weight the hands.

Of course, it is also possible that the 4♣ bid is based on a six card suit. This makes the raise (on three pieces) a lot more likely. Such a 4♣ bid would need to be at least 6-4 in two suits (probably 6-5 is more likely). Examples:

1246 :: 4243 5♣X for +500
2146 :: 3343 5♣X for +500
0346 :: 5143
3046 :: 2443 5♥ fails
4 hearts in the N and 5♥ fails
4126 :: 1363
4216 :: 1273
4036 :: 1453 5♥ fails
1156 :: 4333
0256 :: 5233 5♣X for +500
2056 :: 3433 5♥ fails
5116 :: 0373 5♥ is beatable, but in practice makes
5026 :: 0463 5♥ fails

These hands are a little better for 5♥. But combining this and the hands above, you have to be pretty convinced that 4♣ is on a six-card suit before 5♥ is looking better than defending 5♣X. And further you need to be convinced that the small number of hands where 5♥ outscores 5♣X are somehow more likely than the (much larger) number of patterns where the opposite is true.

Looking at all these, I think maybe 5♣X deserves the top spot.

[inquiry]

I agree with the above post, and have confirmed its findings using dealmaster pro simulations. So the new scoring is...

5♣X = 10
4♥ = 9
5♥ = 7
5♠ = 6
5♣n= 2
slams = 0

This change affects everyone's scores on this board except those in slam.

These scores are now final.