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Amazingly after the slam killer opening you got to bid all three of your suits and partner chose not to raise.
Are you worth another bid? Perhaps based on the ♥ T9 etc
Anomoly or some valuation principle 31 hcp no fit
#1
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Posted 2010-July-22, 20:41
Amazingly after the slam killer opening you got to bid all three of your suits and partner chose not to raise.
Are you worth another bid? Perhaps based on the ♥ T9 etc
Wayne Burrows
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#2
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Posted 2010-July-22, 20:46
u got your suits in, and removing 3NT suggested slam. I think it is time to respect partner.
Edit: I hope he deserved the respect.
Edit: I hope he deserved the respect.
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
#3
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Posted 2010-July-22, 20:56
6N I have 3 good suits and good spots.
Spoiler
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly. MikeH
"100% certain that many excellent players would disagree. This is far more about style/judgment than right vs. wrong." Fred
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"100% certain that many excellent players would disagree. This is far more about style/judgment than right vs. wrong." Fred
"Hysterical Raisins again - this time on the World stage, not just the ACBL" mycroft
#4
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:03
5NT, the spots are good and my double dummy simulation suggests that slam will often be good. If partner bids 6C I pass, I won't pass 6S.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
#5
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:04
Partner didn't even want to bid a heart fragment, so I bet they don't have two honors. Something like AJx, Kx, AKQxx, QJx would really stink. I'll let this one go.
I once yelled at my partner for discarding the 'wrong' card when he was subjected to a squeeze that I allowed by giving the wrong count with too high a card. Now he's allowed to pitch aces when the opponents have the king in the dummy. At trick 2. When he could have followed suit. And blame me.
East4Evil ♥ sohcahtoa 4ever!!!!!1
East4Evil ♥ sohcahtoa 4ever!!!!!1
#6
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:22
kayin801, on Jul 23 2010, 03:04 PM, said:
Partner didn't even want to bid a heart fragment, so I bet they don't have two honors. Something like AJx, Kx, AKQxx, QJx would really stink. I'll let this one go.
How good do you expect the hearts to be for 4♥?
I imagine that answer is dependent on how good partner's diamonds are.
Wayne Burrows
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#7
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:24
hanp, on Jul 23 2010, 03:03 PM, said:
my double dummy simulation suggests that slam will often be good
Really?
Wayne Burrows
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#8
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:31
Yeah but since I didn't trust the results either I'm now running a more precise simulation. Will get back to you.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
#9
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:38
My first simulation was as follows: I gave partner 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP. 6NT made 71% of the time.
In the new simulation I gave partner 19-20 HCP if he has 6 diamonds. Also, since I want to know how often 6C will be better when partner has 3 clubs I'm not giving him a 3-2-6-2 distribution.
New results: 6NT makes 59% of the time, 6C makes 53% of the time and at least one of them makes 74% of the time.
However, I don't think partner will be able to judge which slam is best. So it seems that if we want to move to slam, then we should just bid 6NT.
The choice is therefore pass or 6NT, I think it is a close call.
In the new simulation I gave partner 19-20 HCP if he has 6 diamonds. Also, since I want to know how often 6C will be better when partner has 3 clubs I'm not giving him a 3-2-6-2 distribution.
New results: 6NT makes 59% of the time, 6C makes 53% of the time and at least one of them makes 74% of the time.
However, I don't think partner will be able to judge which slam is best. So it seems that if we want to move to slam, then we should just bid 6NT.
The choice is therefore pass or 6NT, I think it is a close call.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
#10
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:45
Pass.
AQx
Ax
AQJxx
QJx
4NT is high enough. We need to add ♠J and ♦10 to this for slam to be good, which is near perfect and arguably too good if it's 20-21.
Don't forget that a simulation will always find the ♠J and always make the correct guess in diamonds or hearts if there is one. Double dummy analysis is often too high on slams because declarer has to make all the decisions and defence just follow suit. I'd go as far as to say that if it's 71% double dummy you want to stay out.
AQx
Ax
AQJxx
QJx
4NT is high enough. We need to add ♠J and ♦10 to this for slam to be good, which is near perfect and arguably too good if it's 20-21.
Don't forget that a simulation will always find the ♠J and always make the correct guess in diamonds or hearts if there is one. Double dummy analysis is often too high on slams because declarer has to make all the decisions and defence just follow suit. I'd go as far as to say that if it's 71% double dummy you want to stay out.
#11
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:48
Cascade, on Jul 22 2010, 08:22 PM, said:
kayin801, on Jul 23 2010, 03:04 PM, said:
Partner didn't even want to bid a heart fragment, so I bet they don't have two honors. Something like AJx, Kx, AKQxx, QJx would really stink. I'll let this one go.
How good do you expect the hearts to be for 4♥?
I imagine that answer is dependent on how good partner's diamonds are.
Given we're doing all this flopping around I would hope partner would stop off at hearts with anything good in the suit, even if they REALLY want to play in NT for some reason. With Ax or KQ wouldn't you try 4♥? I'm guessing that since partner hasn't done so, the heart suit is gonna be tough to play for just one loser.
Edit: I guess there's cases where we will only need one trick from the suit, but then we need 11 from the other 3...
I once yelled at my partner for discarding the 'wrong' card when he was subjected to a squeeze that I allowed by giving the wrong count with too high a card. Now he's allowed to pitch aces when the opponents have the king in the dummy. At trick 2. When he could have followed suit. And blame me.
East4Evil ♥ sohcahtoa 4ever!!!!!1
East4Evil ♥ sohcahtoa 4ever!!!!!1
#12
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:51
the big advantage of passing 4NT is that partner will know you tried a partnership auction and made a partnership pass. He will want you for a partner next time
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
#13
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Posted 2010-July-22, 21:54
hanp, on Jul 23 2010, 03:38 PM, said:
My first simulation was as follows: I gave partner 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP. 6NT made 71% of the time.
In the new simulation I gave partner 19-20 HCP if he has 6 diamonds. Also, since I want to know how often 6C will be better when partner has 3 clubs I'm not giving him a 3-2-6-2 distribution.
New results: 6NT makes 59% of the time, 6C makes 53% of the time and at least one of them makes 74% of the time.
However, I don't think partner will be able to judge which slam is best. So it seems that if we want to move to slam, then we should just bid 6NT.
The choice is therefore pass or 6NT, I think it is a close call.
In the new simulation I gave partner 19-20 HCP if he has 6 diamonds. Also, since I want to know how often 6C will be better when partner has 3 clubs I'm not giving him a 3-2-6-2 distribution.
New results: 6NT makes 59% of the time, 6C makes 53% of the time and at least one of them makes 74% of the time.
However, I don't think partner will be able to judge which slam is best. So it seems that if we want to move to slam, then we should just bid 6NT.
The choice is therefore pass or 6NT, I think it is a close call.
My initial simulations also suggested 12 tricks.
I have a suspicion that maybe there is a significant double dummy bias in this hand since you will frequently have to give up on on one suit early in the play e.g. on a diamond lead you have to pitch something. Obviously it is an advantage to make this pitch double dummy.
Wayne Burrows
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#14
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Posted 2010-July-22, 22:00
id bid 3♣
OK
bed
bed
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Posted 2010-July-22, 22:13
jjbrr, on Jul 22 2010, 11:00 PM, said:
id bid 3♣
Yeah. Although after 2NT-3♣-3♦-3♠-3NT-4♣-4NT I'd probably still want to pass.
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Posted 2010-July-22, 22:36
lmilne, on Jul 22 2010, 10:13 PM, said:
jjbrr, on Jul 22 2010, 11:00 PM, said:
id bid 3♣
Yeah. Although after 2NT-3♣-3♦-3♠-3NT-4♣-4NT I'd probably still want to pass.
auctions mean the same to the different posters and their partners. Just a matter of style. Same question whether to tell partner she is full of sh... or pass.
I choose to get laid.
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
#17
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Posted 2010-July-23, 02:20
The fact that partner bid 4NT, rather than 4♥ strongly suggests that they can cash ♥AK as their first two tricks in any slam.
The question is whether they will lead the top hearts if the honors are split (probably not) and whether you will be able to make a slam if they don't. (You will have chances.)
All in all, I consider this an easy pass.
Maybe Han could run a sim where partner is 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP, without the ♥AK.
Rik
The question is whether they will lead the top hearts if the honors are split (probably not) and whether you will be able to make a slam if they don't. (You will have chances.)
All in all, I consider this an easy pass.
Maybe Han could run a sim where partner is 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP, without the ♥AK.
Rik
I want my opponents to leave my table with a smile on their face and without matchpoints on their score card - in that order.
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The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the new discoveries, is not “Eureka!” (I found it!), but “That’s funny…” – Isaac Asimov
The only reason God did not put "Thou shalt mind thine own business" in the Ten Commandments was that He thought that it was too obvious to need stating. - Kenberg
#18
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Posted 2010-July-23, 02:30
lmilne, on Jul 23 2010, 05:13 AM, said:
jjbrr, on Jul 22 2010, 11:00 PM, said:
id bid 3♣
Yeah. Although after 2NT-3♣-3♦-3♠-3NT-4♣-4NT I'd probably still want to pass.
Yeah, but now you've rightsided 6♦...
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#19
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Posted 2010-July-23, 03:17
Trinidad, on Jul 23 2010, 08:20 PM, said:
The fact that partner bid 4NT, rather than 4♥ strongly suggests that they can cash ♥AK as their first two tricks in any slam.
The question is whether they will lead the top hearts if the honors are split (probably not) and whether you will be able to make a slam if they don't. (You will have chances.)
All in all, I consider this an easy pass.
Maybe Han could run a sim where partner is 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP, without the ♥AK.
Rik
The question is whether they will lead the top hearts if the honors are split (probably not) and whether you will be able to make a slam if they don't. (You will have chances.)
All in all, I consider this an easy pass.
Maybe Han could run a sim where partner is 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP, without the ♥AK.
Rik
I don't get this.
Why opposite a 4=5=0=4 would we be inclined to want to try the 5=2 without knowing that responder has any particular suit quality in hearts.
Wayne Burrows
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#20
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Posted 2010-July-23, 04:02
My experience tells me that those 10's and 9's are worth about 1.5hcp when playing in NT thus I bash the slam.
uncontested
2NT 3♦
3♥* 3♠
3NT 4♣
4NT ?
* usually only two hearts three hearts with no club and diamond control is possible.