CSGibson, on Jul 14 2010, 10:25 PM, said:
mikeh, on Jul 14 2010, 09:11 AM, said:
As gnasher pointed out, our heart lead may have made partner switch from Kx(x)(x) in order to ensure we took our diamond winners before declarer got a pitch.
However, surely a low diamond would be as effective most times....he can assume that we will know where the heart K is when he wins the A, and we can see that declarer can't usefully pitch one club, but can pitch a diamond.
So that's a bit of a wash. And if he has Kxx in diamonds, he shouldn't play the lowest spot on the 2nd round.
So I am going to place declarer with 3=x=6=y: either 3=3=6=1 or 3=2=6=2
If he holds 3361, with the stiff club 10, partner will need to be on his toes if I duck the diamond and declarer calls for a small club. A duck by him allows declarer to eventually ruff out the K, losing only a heart and 2 clubs.
But most of the time, when declarer is 3361, ducking the diamond assures us a 1 trick set.
While winning the diamond assures a make.
What about 3=2=6=2? Now, if we win, we can cash 2 clubs, and declarer scores the rest. It does us no good to adopt gnasher's suggestion of the J, catering to K10x in partner's hand....declarer has a trump and good diamonds.
If we duck, we now need 3 club tricks. We are ok with K10x in partner's hand. And we are ok if partner plays his K on the first or second rounds of the suit even if declarer holds the 10, as he is 50-50 likely to do on a 3=2=6=2 hand.
So it seems to me that the duck is the right play
It seems to me that a competent declarer should not go down when they are 3-3-6-1, as they would either duck the diamond K or play back a diamond right away rather than draw trump. Is the declarer bad enough that we should play for her to have made that mistake?
Posting hands in the forum is one thing....and we see a lot of bad analyzes even here, where everyone is a bridge junkie and has lots of time to think about it. My experience is that the vast majority of real life declarers play badly. Unless I know the declarer, personally or by reputation, I usually assume that he or she is going to adopt inferior lines quite frequently.
I know from my own play that I often adopt lines that, at 3 am next morning, I realize were 2nd best (or worse), and I play better than most of my opponents.
Which says more, I suspect, about where I play than it does about my skills

Still, it seems wrong to always analyze att problems as if declarer were Michael Rosenberg or his ilk.
Edit:
Finally, if we are giving declarer 3=2=6=2, surely a competent declarer ducks the diamond anyway? Winning the A gives up on the hand, while if declarer ducks, we 'd better find the club switch right now, rather than try to 'cash' a second diamond trick.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
2♦-2♥-2♠-4♥
4♠-Pa-Pa-X
All Pass