blackshoe, on Mar 20 2010, 02:58 PM, said:
The facts (see Law 84) appear to be:
That North hesitated before passing.
That North's hesitation could demonstrably suggest bidding on.
That North had (an) alternative call(s), to wit, pass and X.
That North did bid on.
There remains one question before we can adjust the score: were EW damaged? That is not in evidence, but assuming they were, then Law16B3 tells us to adjust.
In a 12C1c jurisdiction (most of the world outside NA) we don't adjust to a particular result, if there are multiple possible outcomes. Here, the possible outcomes appear to be 5♠X and 5♠ undoubled, making however many it makes. I would give a bit more weight to X than pass here, favoring the NOS, so perhaps 60% 5♠X and 40%5♠. (I'm by no means an expert with weighted scores; others may have better opinions). Note that if X could also demonstrably be suggested (I don't see it, but I could be wrong) over pass, then you can't include X in the weightings and it would be a straight 5♠.
If there was no damage, there would be no adjustment. We would need all four hands to determine that, of course (and to determine the correct adjustment as well).
Edit: now I've seen Sven's second message... could 6♣ demonstrably be suggested over X? Over pass, I can see it, but I'm not so sure about over double. Maybe....
The facts that are missing include the agreements to the bidding.
As I read the auction W has made an invitational strength 3D opposite a 10-12 NT [as in responder needs to be pretty substantial-like worth a 1 of a suit opening- to be invitational].
So, is NS bidding 5C to make on this auction? While they might very well like to make 11 tricks I should think they are preventing 4S. EW have given the opinion that 5C does not make, so there is the expectation that 6C does not make when it is bid.
That 5CX was taken out suggests that setting 5C would be less than making 5S- remember that opener freely bid 4S.
THe strongest inference from the BIT is that he was concerned that the defense might slip in 5SX.
WHat is clear to me is that inferences from the BIT [a] did not suggest that 6C would make and [b] demonstrably suggested that 5SX would be successful.
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