[hanp]

J10xxx
AQ109x
Q
Ax

IMPs, red against white:

(2S) - p - (3S) - ??

2S showed exactly 5 spades and a 4+ minor.

[kfay]

Give partner some hearts and....

I can't do it, I just pass.

[gwnn]

pass. We need a huge fit from GOP to make anything.

[hrothgar]

Call me crazy, but I am bidding 4♥

Partner has a spade void. He is almost guaranteed heart length.

True, partner has a Spade void AND he couldn't find a call over 2♠ in direct seat. This certainly limits his strength. Partner rates to have at least a seven count and all these points are going to be working.

My biggest worry is that partner is going to table a 10 count and is going to bid on over 4♥. Its entirely possible that 5♥ is going to go down but 4♥ would make.

Interesting hand

[Codo]

I try to think about hand that makes 4 Heart and I fail if partner does not hold at least 4 Hearts. So I pass. Maybe partner is not too weak to x 3♠.

[gnasher]

I'd bid 4♥. Maybe they'll lead a spade.

[Fluffy]

I'd pass, partner might reopen agressively, but then I am not sure Iam passing it...

[kgr]

Pass and if partner reopens with DBL: Pass again

[Apollo81]

Pass. 4♥ if partner reopens with a double.

[Cyberyeti]

I've got partner tabbed with a hand he would have bid 2N unusual over 1S, but can't bid over 2S.

How well is this going to play opposite say:

VOID, xx, KJxxxx, KQxxx

compared to the guaranteed penalty out of 3S.

The problem is that pard might be about to bid 3N over 3S.

[hrothgar]

Cyberyeti, on Mar 2 2010, 05:46 PM, said:

I've got partner tabbed with a hand he would have bid 2N unusual over 1S, but can't bid over 2S.

How well is this going to play opposite say:

VOID, xx, KJxxxx, KQxxx

compared to the guaranteed penalty out of 3S.

The problem is that pard might be about to bid 3N over 3S.

LHO is promising a 4+ card minor

Me thinks this will have an impact on partner's expected heart length....

[pooltuna]

hanp, on Mar 2 2010, 06:30 AM, said:

J10xxx
AQ109x
Q
Ax

IMPs, red against white:

(2S) - p - (3S) - ??

2S showed exactly 5 spades and a 4+ minor.

pass seems clear

[Cascade]

hrothgar, on Mar 3 2010, 04:12 AM, said:

Cyberyeti, on Mar 2 2010, 05:46 PM, said:

I've got partner tabbed with a hand he would have bid 2N unusual over 1S, but can't bid over 2S.

How well is this going to play opposite say:

VOID, xx, KJxxxx, KQxxx

compared to the guaranteed penalty out of 3S.

The problem is that pard might be about to bid 3N over 3S.

LHO is promising a 4+ card minor

Me thinks this will have an impact on partner's expected heart length....

I did a simulation with one player having five spades and a four or more card minor and the other having a spade raise partner's heart length frequencies were:

    0        224
    1       2960
    2      13379
    3      28721
    4      31413
    5      17646
    6       5069
    7        560
    8         28

Average 3.64

If I further insisted that the raiser had a shortage these became:

    0        524
    1       4231
    2      11902
    3      16593
    4      21052
    5      26345
    6      16234
    7       3009
    8        110

average 4.13

The real distribution is probably somewhere between these two.

[jdonn]

Wayne does that take into account that in this case we have 5 hearts?

Maybe I'm being simplistic (or wrong somehow), but if a bid simply promises 5 spades then the player averages 2.67 in each other suit. So the presence of a 4 card minor lowers his expectation in each other suit (hearts and the other minor) by (4-2.67)/2 = .67, which increases that expected length in each other hand by .22. That doesn't seem like very much to me. I probably underestimated since it's a 4+ minor but overall I don't think it makes a big difference.

All that being said I pass here. partner can bid his own hand (which will include aggressive balancing here with his spade void) and he won't thank me for guessing for him if I bid 4♥ and he has the minors.

[Cyberyeti]

hrothgar, on Mar 2 2010, 10:12 AM, said:

Cyberyeti, on Mar 2 2010, 05:46 PM, said:

I've got partner tabbed with a hand he would have bid 2N unusual over 1S, but can't bid over 2S.

How well is this going to play opposite say:

VOID, xx, KJxxxx, KQxxx

compared to the guaranteed penalty out of 3S.

The problem is that pard might be about to bid 3N over 3S.

LHO is promising a 4+ card minor

Me thinks this will have an impact on partner's expected heart length....

Yes but similarly his pard has just bid 3 spades and not enquired which minor, so that has an impact on how many minor suit cards (and hence how many hearts) he holds.

[Cascade]

jdonn, on Mar 3 2010, 08:19 AM, said:

Wayne does that take into account that in this case we have 5 hearts?

Maybe I'm being simplistic (or wrong somehow), but if a bid simply promises 5 spades then the player averages 2.67 in each other suit. So the presence of a 4 card minor lowers his expectation in each other suit (hearts and the other minor) by (4-2.67)/2 = .67, which increases that expected length in each other hand by .22. That doesn't seem like very much to me. I probably underestimated since it's a 4+ minor but overall I don't think it makes a big difference.

All that being said I pass here. partner can bid his own hand (which will include aggressive balancing here with his spade void) and he won't thank me for guessing for him if I bid 4♥ and he has the minors.

That is what I tried to do.

I predealt the actual hand from this thread.

predeal north SJT432, HAQT92, DQ, CA2

and then used the following simple constraint

spades(east)==5 and
(diamonds(east)>=4 or clubs(east)>=4) and
spades(west)==3 and
(hearts(west)<2 or diamonds(west)<2 or clubs(west)<2)

with and without the last condition.

I did not constrain HCP which would have a minor impact on the numbers.

[OleBerg]

Cyberyeti, on Mar 2 2010, 09:44 PM, said:

Yes but similarly his pard has just bid 3 spades and not enquired which minor, so that has an impact on how many minor suit cards (and hence how many hearts) he holds.

A raise to 3♠ on a 3-card suit, could very well indicate some kind of fit for both minors, on a hand that simply want to take up bidding space.

That might not be the case, but implying that it should indicate long hearts, seems far-fetched to me.

So maybe the only difference bidding 4♥ makes, is who is going to declare. Playing with myself, I would definitely bid 4♥, as I don't want me to declare.

[Cascade]

There are certainly some hands where you would raise 2♠ to 3♠ with only three spades because you have short hearts. Reasoning that it will be too easy for the opponents to come in over 2♠.

Of course these are not the only hands you will raise with .

[hanp]

I passed and partner had - Jxxx KJ10xx KQxx and passed it out. So that was +50 instead of 650. Further thoughts?

The actual west had AQx xx AJxxx xxx Wayne. That wouldn't pass your constraints but doesn't seem unreasonable white against red.

[PhantomSac]

hanp, on Mar 2 2010, 04:04 PM, said:

I passed and partner had - Jxxx KJ10xx KQxx and passed it out. So that was +50 instead of 650. Further thoughts?

The actual west had AQx xx AJxxx xxx Wayne. That wouldn't pass your constraints but doesn't seem unreasonable white against red.

Pass then pass is absurdddddddd (Xing 2S is obvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv)