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Siegmund, on Feb 27 2010, 10:24 PM, said:
Of course I am used to the fact that the most aggressive lead in sight always wins in a lead-vs-slam poll even when it doesnt work at the table 
Pretty sure a passive lead always wins vs 6N heh. Aggressive leads generally win in polls vs suit slams because usually they are making unless you have some nasty surprise for them if you defend passively. The best thing you have going for you is the initiative, so that you can set up a trick and hopefully get in and cash your trick before stuff goes away.
On this hand we have a stiff trump, and if I thought they were 4-1 for the opps I would go passive on the basis that we might beat them with passive defense since that is a nice surprise for them that will help us. Here they super accepted so I don't really think that's the case.
We have xxx diamonds, that looks quite bad for us. If they were in a close slam, that will probably help them make.
So I'm hoping to set up a trick. A club is better for that because we're shorter, but it requires more from partner, basically the KQ or the KJ over the Q maybe (the K over dummy's ace seems unlikely given that LHO didn't bid 5C). KTxx would be a clear winner over xxxxx to me. Also, hopefully LHO won't have a stiff spade since they didn't bid 4S, in which case my length will not increase the chance that even if we hit partner's queen we don't set up a trick (which is the downside of length).
Thus a spade seems right to me for setting up a trick, and that seems like the right plan to me (and as you said, is the default plan vs 6 of a suit unless you have some reason to think you will beat it on passive defense).
It seems like a much more narrow target to try to beat them on passive defense and fear a layout where a spade gives them their 12th trick (because if passive defense beats it, we might just have 2 tricks in the red suits or whatever and the spade didn't hurt us), than to try and set up a trick then get in and cash that trick. Obv it's possible they're just on a spade hook or something and a spade lead sets it, but it seems less likely than the times we gain.
I don't understand your comment though, were you implying that people always lead aggro vs 6 of a suit on paper even though it's anti percentage or that they wouldn't do it at the table? Maybe it's antipercentage, but it is the current conventional wisdom and it is what most experts do at the table ime, so I don't think anyone is being disingenuous.
