[Jlall]

First board of the nationals. You hold:

---
Qxxx
AJ9xx
Qxxx

Your RHO opens 2D, you pass, lefty bids 2S, RHO 4S, LHO 6S. Partner leads the DT and this is what you see:

---

You win the king with the ace as LHO follows. What now? If it matters the opps are good, the number 2 seed in your section.

[MFA]

I try a heart.

I think there is a weak inference that declarer has strong trumps when he doesn't key card. It depends on his level of optimism of course, but apparently he thought he was in for a good chance opposite 0.

So I play for ♠AQJxxxx and some AK A on the side. Or ♠AQJxxxxx A A.
A diamond at trick 2 would establish his 12th trick.

[gnasher]

What would partner lead from a hand like 9xx Jxxxx x Kxxx? Personally I'd lead a club, thinking that finding partner with ♦Hxx and ♣Q is more likely than ♦A.

What about from 8xxx Jxxx x 10xxx (which is what we need for a diamond to work)? I'd still lead a round suit, but perhaps a diamond is more attractive now, because a side-suit lead has less chance of success.

Is that a weak inference in favour of a diamond continuation?

[Jlall]

gnasher, on Nov 28 2009, 05:17 AM, said:

What would partner lead from a hand like 9xx Jxxxx x Kxxx? Personally I'd lead a club, thinking that finding partner with ♦Hxx and ♣Q is more likely than ♦A.

What about from 8xxx Jxxx x 10xxx (which is what we need for a diamond to work)? I'd still lead a round suit, but perhaps a diamond is more attractive now, because a side-suit lead has less chance of success.

Is that a weak inference in favour of a diamond continuation?

If it matters your partner tanked for a long time before leading his stiff diamond

[Jlall]

MFA, on Nov 28 2009, 04:52 AM, said:

I try a heart.

I think there is a weak inference that declarer has strong trumps when he doesn't key card. It depends on his level of optimism of course, but apparently he thought he was in for a good chance opposite 0.

So I play for ♠AQJxxxx and some AK A on the side. Or ♠AQJxxxxx A A.
A diamond at trick 2 would establish his 12th trick.

Excellent analysis, and I think this is findable at the table. Unfortunately my partner returned a diamond really quickly. I think if this was a paper problem he would have figured it out, and should have figured it out if he thought about it more.

FWIW I had gnasher's hand, 8xx Kxxx T xxxxx. I thought for a long time and led a diamond, not sure how good/bad this lead is, but felt EXTREMELY close to me. I think in day 2 (the finals) I would try a heart.

[gnasher]

Jlall, on Nov 28 2009, 12:58 PM, said:

If it matters your partner tanked for a long time before leading his stiff diamond

I don't think it matters. I expect my partner to think before leading against a slam.

[mcphee]

I do not believe a D return can do anything but help declarer. If this is a good player they will trump D hi and hook partners J later if they need to, thats if he has the J.

Just so you can feel better justin, I hope you lead from the K next time and it's wrong.

[pooltuna]

Jlall, on Nov 27 2009, 09:48 PM, said:

First board of the nationals. You hold:

---
Qxxx
AJ9xx
Qxxx

Your RHO opens 2D, you pass, lefty bids 2S, RHO 4S, LHO 6S. Partner leads the DT and this is what you see:

Dealer: ????? Vul: ???? Scoring: Unknown

♠ KT8 ♥ xx ♦ KQ8xxx ♣ Jx ♠   ♥ Qxxx ♦ AJ9xx ♣ Qxxx

You win the king with the ace as LHO follows. What now? If it matters the opps are good, the number 2 seed in your section.

Usually when I don't lead a ♦ back declarer's hand is

---

[nige1]

Jlall, on Nov 27 2009, 09:48 PM, said:

Dealer: ????? Vul: ???? Scoring: Unknown

♠ KT8 ♥ xx ♦ KQ8xxx ♣ Jx ♠   ♥ Qxxx ♦ AJ9xx ♣ Qxxx

Your RHO opens 2D, you pass, lefty bids 2S, RHO 4S, LHO 6S. Partner leads the DT. You win the king with the ace as LHO follows. What now? If it matters the opps are good, the number 2 seed in your section.

I'd return a ♦

[aguahombre]

it would be much more fun if Pooltuna's scenario was it -- partner holding QJ tight in spades. So, I go for it.

[Winstonm]

MFA, on Nov 28 2009, 04:52 AM, said:

I try a heart.

I think there is a weak inference that declarer has strong trumps when he doesn't key card. It depends on his level of optimism of course, but apparently he thought he was in for a good chance opposite 0.

So I play for ♠AQJxxxx and some AK A on the side. Or ♠AQJxxxxx A A.
A diamond at trick 2 would establish his 12th trick.

If he is AQJxxxx, AKx, x, Ax a diamond return doesn't lose as after the heart ruff there is no way to pull trump and cash the diamond Q.

Likewise if the hand is AQJxxx, AKxx, x, Ax or AQJxxx, Ax, x AKxx

Or am I missing something here?

[Jlall]

Winstonm, on Nov 28 2009, 07:05 PM, said:

MFA, on Nov 28 2009, 04:52 AM, said:

I try a heart.

I think there is a weak inference that declarer has strong trumps when he doesn't key card. It depends on his level of optimism of course, but apparently he thought he was in for a good chance opposite 0.

So I play for ♠AQJxxxx and some AK A on the side. Or ♠AQJxxxxx A A.
A diamond at trick 2 would establish his 12th trick.

If he is AQJxxxx, AKx, x, Ax a diamond return doesn't lose as after the heart ruff there is no way to pull trump and cash the diamond Q.

Likewise if the hand is AQJxxx, AKxx, x, Ax or AQJxxx, Ax, x AKxx

Or am I missing something here?

Declarer had AQJ9xxx AJx x AK. On a diamond back he sets up the long diamond and gets 2 pitches.

I could definitely have led a heart, thought it was a good problem.

[gnasher]

Winstonm, on Nov 29 2009, 01:05 AM, said:

If he is AQJxxxx, AKx, x, Ax a diamond return doesn't lose as after the heart ruff there is no way to pull trump and cash the diamond Q.

He doesn't ruff a heart. He uses dummy's three trump entries (including a marked finesse against the 9) to take two more high diamond ruffs and the cash the last two.

Quote

Likewise if the hand is AQJxxx, AKxx, x, Ax or AQJxxx, Ax, x AKxx

Against those hands, either red suit works.

If declarer has something like AQJxxx AK x AKxx, a diamond is necessary if partner's spades are 8xxx or worse; if they're 9xxx you can play either red suit. After AK, ruff, other AK, ruff, ♠K, if declarer still has four top trumps in hand he can overtake; if he doesn't he's forced to lose a trump.

On reflection, perhaps that's an argument in favour of a heart: it works against AQJxxxx A A, and doesn't necessarily fail against AQJxxx AK AK

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2009-November-29, 04:13

[Fluffy]

aguahombre, on Nov 28 2009, 11:48 PM, said:

it would be much more fun if Pooltuna's scenario was it -- partner holding QJ tight in spades. So, I go for it.

But declarer has an easy view for grand and would try it rather than blasting a contract that seems cold on any lead.

[billw55]

Jlall, on Nov 28 2009, 08:30 PM, said:

Declarer had AQJ9xxx AJx x AK. On a diamond back he sets up the long diamond and gets 2 pitches.

I could definitely have led a heart, thought it was a good problem.

I was thinking that the key to this problem is: why didn't declarer use keycard? With that hand, I still wonder. Is there something in opener's 2♦ call that prevents him having both A♦ and K♠? Or is lefty unconcerned about missing a grand at nationals? Maybe he didn't think your team was very threatening?

edit: for that matter, is there something preventing opener from having neither missing keycard? In which case the small slam is on a finesse - if dummy even has an entry? I must admit I am puzzled by the lack of investigation, not even a simple straightforward club cue, just blasting away. But, this is the 2 seed at nationals, so I guess I must need some 'splaining.