Winstonm, on Feb 7 2009, 10:16 PM, said:
Josh,
Your above points are excellent but make sure to read the part in parenthesis where I answer. My belief is that if we are concerned that slam has been missed, either partner or ourselves misbid our hand the last time.
At this point guessing about a possible correction of either bid is losing bridge IMO.
I am particularly focused on "if we are concerned that slam has been missed, either partner or ourselves misbid our hand the last time." I agree, we misbid our hand last time. To me that is a terrible reason to fail to correct our misbid if we get the chance.
If you take a wrong turn and you are headed toward a cliff, do you simply drive off the edge because turning back the way you came would be inconsistent with your previous turn? Or do you accept that you made a terrible decision earlier and do something about it when given the chance?
Btw, given that we hold a hand that shouldn't be possible to hold on this auction, passing 5
♣ is as much of a guess as bidding 6
♣ would be. So you make the guess with the best chance of being right. If you believe that is pass we can mildly disagree on bridge judgment. But if you believe that is 6
♣ and you pass anyway then tomorrow we can share a cab on the way to your psychiatrist and my rubber bridge game.
Edit on seeing addendum to prior post: What is the point of using example hands? (btw he can't have the second one.) The forumula to bid 6
♣ isn't p(make 6
♣) = 100%. It's E(imps from 6
♣) > E(imps from 5
♣) + ε (I tossed in epsilon to represent aversion to variance.)
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.