[plaur]

Contract 4♠. Lead club

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You can finesse the queen of hearts for a 50% chance. Can you do better?

Merry Christmas everyone and thanks to all posters of the BI forum. I do enjoy reading here.

[vuroth]

It'd be brilliant if I could lose my third trick to west.

[Tomi2]

you can try to eleminate side suits and hope for a defensive error, say ducking first club, takin 2nd one, playing spade, when they are 2-2 your plan is safe since you will leave a high spade in dummy as entry for a finesse later. exit with a club and hope for dia return, take the ace and escape, then you win for examle if your LHO has:

xx
Kxx
KQxx
KQJT

on any other distribition of the minor honors you must hope, the opponents fail to unblock / lead a heart from the right side.

after club ducked and club return you are safe every time lho has to win that club and has KQ in dias - this slightly improves your odds only risking an direct club ruff

[cherdano]

Great problem plaur!

[maggieb]

hehehehe, sneaky!

[Fluffy]

I love it , many non BILs would fail this hand at the table.

[eros2]

What does lefty lead? A spot card or honour?

On the K♣ lead, I am looking for righty to give count. Suppose righty shows an odd number, I duck 2 clubs, win the third and take the AQ♠. I lead to the A♦ and back to my J♦, endplaying lefty if he has K♦ (righty ducks) and trumps split 1-3, 0-4 or 2-2. A ♦ switch at trick 2 would be annoying... Righty can force me into the ♥ hook if I duck.

I don't know about anything else...

[vuroth]

Wow, I'd be awfully nervous about ducking one club, much less 2.

It seems to me that ducking 1 club is safest, though of course you may go down if the finesse was on and clubs were 6-1 - certainly not impossible.

I guess the reason it's right to do so is that we have to minimize our chances of east getting in and leading a heart. Certainly, if it happens, we're no worse off than we were just taking the finesse, but if we're going to expose ourselves to the added risk of a second round club ruff, there have to be compensations.

V

[cherdano]

Fluffy, on Dec 24 2008, 12:26 PM, said:

I love it , many non BILs would fail this hand at the table.

Yeah I think it is a very common mistake.

[eros2]

vuroth, on Dec 24 2008, 06:41 PM, said:

t taking the finesse, but if we're going to expose ourselves to the added risk of a second round club ruff, there have to be compensations.

Righty would be ruffing a loser. The only difference is that 4S is -2 (instead of -1) if a ♥ is returned and the hook is failing. If it is working, we still make the contract by drawing trump before cashing the A♣.

Suppose that righty fails to switch to a ♥ after ruffing at trick 2, now there is no threat if trumps are 1-3. Win any return, cash AQ♠ and your minor suit aces (if trumps are not 0-4). Exit with a diamond to the J♦ as before.

Still no idea what I would do with a spot card lead.

[vuroth]

eros2, on Dec 24 2008, 02:36 PM, said:

vuroth, on Dec 24 2008, 06:41 PM, said:

t taking the finesse, but if we're going to expose ourselves to the added risk of a second round club ruff, there have to be compensations.

Righty would be ruffing a loser.

Unless righty overtakes and returns, and lefty was single.

It seems to me there's always at least a small added risk in ducking the first club. Not saying it's not worthwhile, necessarily.

V

[Flameous]

My line is CA, SA, HA, HQ, win return after losing 2 clubs, now ruff heart twice to throw a diamond.

Works with 3-3 and 4-2 hearts so it has near 85% odds.

[Trumpace]

Flameous, on Dec 24 2008, 03:23 PM, said:

My line is CA, SA, HA, HQ, win return after losing 2 clubs, now ruff heart twice to throw a diamond.

Works with 3-3 and 4-2 hearts so it has near 85% odds.

85% seems to be an overestimate by about 10%... but I think this is the line to take too.

Endplay possibilties are not too good, a simple heart finesse is probably better than trying to manouver a throw-in, but it can't beat the above line.

Sneaky hand

[Flameous]

Oh right... I missed that this line doesn't work with spades 4-0 so I only counted hearts breaking 4-2 or 3-3 which is 84% unless I have something horribly wrong. Although still needs diamond return with spades 4-0 so it's not hopeless even then

[vuroth]

Flameous, on Dec 24 2008, 03:23 PM, said:

My line is CA, SA, HA, HQ, win return after losing 2 clubs, now ruff heart twice to throw a diamond.

Works with 3-3 and 4-2 hearts so it has near 85% odds.

Didn't notice the spade spots were really THAT good. nice.

[fred]

Flameous, on Dec 24 2008, 09:25 PM, said:

Oh right... I missed that this line doesn't work with spades 4-0 so I only counted hearts breaking 4-2 or 3-3 which is 84% unless I have something horribly wrong. Although still needs diamond return with spades 4-0 so it's not hopeless even then

In your line you cash the Ace of spades at trick 2 (smartly).

If you find out spades are 4-0 you can still take the heart finesse.

Give yourself another 5% or so.

Your line also worked if spades are not 4-0 and the King of hearts is singleton.

You get 2% or so for that.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[Trumpace]

fred, on Dec 24 2008, 04:41 PM, said:

Flameous, on Dec 24 2008, 09:25 PM, said:

Oh right... I missed that this line doesn't work with spades 4-0 so I only counted hearts breaking 4-2 or 3-3 which is 84% unless I have something horribly wrong. Although still needs diamond return with spades 4-0 so it's not hopeless even then

In your line you cash the Ace of spades at trick 2 (smartly).

If you find out spades are 4-0 you can still take the heart finesse.

Give yourself another 5% or so.

Your line also worked if spades are not 4-0 and the King of hearts is singleton.

You get 2% or so for that.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

That gets it back to "near 85%"

[fred]

Trumpace, on Dec 24 2008, 10:12 PM, said:

fred, on Dec 24 2008, 04:41 PM, said:

Flameous, on Dec 24 2008, 09:25 PM, said:

Oh right... I missed that this line doesn't work with spades 4-0 so I only counted hearts breaking 4-2 or 3-3 which is 84% unless I have something horribly wrong. Although still needs diamond return with spades 4-0 so it's not hopeless even then

In your line you cash the Ace of spades at trick 2 (smartly).

If you find out spades are 4-0 you can still take the heart finesse.

Give yourself another 5% or so.

Your line also worked if spades are not 4-0 and the King of hearts is singleton.

You get 2% or so for that.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

That gets it back to "near 85%"

You might also be interested in knowing that your original line might work if spades are 4-0 even against best defense. Imagine East with 4 spades and 3 hearts. You can work out the details.

The math involved in comparing this variation to taking the heart finesse once you learn that East has 4 spades is a little too much for me to do in my head, but I am pretty sure that the heart finesse is superior.

Thanks to plaur for a nice problem

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com