[fred]

---

The opponents never bid and you reach 4S.

West leads the King of clubs and continues with Queen of clubs.

Plan the play.

I am not sure I know the right answer to this one. It would not surprise me in the least if someone were to find a better line than the line that I think is correct.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[han]

I don't know Fred, so I probably shouldn't be posting yet. Unfortunately I'm heading to a bridge game in NY soon, I'll take this problem with me for on the train.

At the table I'm pretty sure I'd play a heart to hand and play a spade to the king. Suppose this wins. Then I'd come to hand in diamonds, ruff the third club and run the 9 of spades.

If the spade loses then it is easier, I'd just run the spade 9 next.

It seems right to play the trump honor in the hand where I'm ruffing (common pattern) and I give myself better chances in the suit by leading up to the honor than by just playing it. Using the entry in hearts doesn't seem to cost often.

[mikeh]

I'm sure that I can't work out the best percentage line.

It seems to me that I can lead low to the K or the Q, or I can arrange to hook against the spade J immediately, either way. The problem with the immediate hook is that I may fail when spades are 3-2 if they can get a diamond ruff...

So I think I have to play to the K or to the Q... If LHO holds AJxx, leading to the K is fatal, while leading to the Q also fails.. he wins, taps dummy, I cash the spade K, and he is left with Jx of trump and I can't drive out the J.

So I have to play RHO for AJxx. In that case, I am ok if the K loses to the A, but I cannot play to the Queen first.

Ok, I cross in hearts and lead a spade to the King.

If it wins, lead another (the 9, I think) and pray that rho doesn't show out.

If it loses, I am in control unless it lost to a stiff Ace. If RHO wins and returns a diamond, I have to guess if he began with Axx x in the pointed suits...orAJxx in spades. Running the 9 in the first layout risks a diamond ruff when trump are 3-2.

If rho adopts this line, I will play for spades 3-2... and compliment him on a brilliant defence if he held AJxx and 2+ diamonds.

[kenrexford]

The problem I see runs something like this.

I ruff the second club and then do something in spades that yields a trick to the Jack. I then ruff a third club to knock out the spade Ace. A fourth club must be ruffed in my hand, which is painful when spades are 4-1.

I am not worried about spades being 3-2, so I'll focus on the problem as one where I may need to find the spade Jack. However, suppose I lose a spade to the Ace first. A third club is ruffed in dummy, and then I can play the second high spade. If spades do split 4-1, I can just start taking tricks, yielding two spades but maintaining a tempo lead.

The counter to this line is when my King or Queen of spades is allowed to hold. If that happens, then I need to figure out who is holding the spade length and be prepared to finesse later. The feel of the hand is the LHO has the spade length, because he is defending this right and because RHO did not overtake (he might hold the Ace) to ensure that the "right" defense is pursued.

So, I lead a spade to the Queen, expecting to win, and then lead a spade toward dummy, which I can win any way I want -- King or 9. I expect to then cross to hand to ruff that last club myself before just running winners, having a tempo lead.

However, LHO can counter this by popping the Ace after allowing the Queen to win and forcing a club ruff, burning my King and costing me tempo. Ugh!

So, in the end, I think I cannot pursue this line that way. I guess I'll have to just cross to hand and finesse LHO for the Jack immediately. I can then play the King from dummy, which LHO must win (else I cross back, ruff the last club, and then just play winners). LHO then can force me to ruff another club, I cross back to hand to pull one of his trumps, and I then proceed to cash winners until he yields.

LHO might win the trump King with the Ace to play a red card. This should be won in hand as well, to ruff another club, and then back to hand to pull one of his trumps. That's three entries back. One at trick 3, one on his return, and one more to pull his last trump. That requires LHO to have two diamonds and a heart, something like AJxx-x-xx-KQJxxx.

[cherdano]

mikeh, on Oct 25 2008, 11:32 AM, said:

Ok, I cross in hearts and lead a spade to the King.

If it wins, lead another (the 9, I think) and pray that rho doesn't show out.

You are down if LHO has ♠AJx. (He wins ♠J, and cashes ♠A and a club.)

[mikeh]

cherdano, on Oct 25 2008, 03:40 PM, said:

mikeh, on Oct 25 2008, 11:32 AM, said:

Ok, I cross in hearts and lead a spade to the King.

If it wins, lead another (the 9, I think) and pray that rho doesn't show out.

You are down if LHO has ♠AJx. (He wins ♠J, and cashes ♠A and a club.)

Yes... I actually saw that while writing my post.. I had written a more extensive post, and had edited it.. trust me, it was way too long .. and edited it very poorly... if the spade K wins, we need to ruff our 3rd club first, so we cross in diamonds to ruff the club and then float the 9... but the problem with this is that we still run into a possible diamond ruff when trumps are 3-2 and diamonds 4-1, which is what caused the earlier post to be so long.. was this risk too great, compared with trying a 1st round hook against the J?.. and in editing out those thoughts I edited out the crossing in diamonds to ruff the last club.

I spent a lot of time on this problem, and changed my mind several times.

[pclayton]

There's two issues. Keeping control when trump are 4-1, and avoiding the loss of a club trick when LHO has AJx as Arend suggests.

I like a heart to hand and a spade to the 9. This should handle all 3-2 splits, unless RHO has specifically Jxx and a singleton diamond.

So 4-1 splits are the main concern.

If the 9 drives out the (stiff) Jack on my right, I'm down I think unless LHO is exactly 4=3=3=3 (he can't play a 4th round of clubs to tap me)

If RHO has started with AJxx, he can win, tap the dummy and duck the K♠ (I'll get the news). Now I think I need RHO to hold at least 3 diamonds and I'll pick up his small trump this way. I can also guess to play RHO for exactly 3 clubs, and try to draw trump hoping he can't force me, but this is worse than holding 3+ diamonds.

If the 9 fetches the Ace, and they return a club, ruff in dummy, ♠K, ♦ to hand, Q♠ and run diamonds. Even if spades were 4-1 with the stiff A on my right, I'm OK.

If the 9 holds, re-enter my hand with a diamond and run the ♠10. If LHO has AJxx, he can't beat me. If he rises with the Ace, and plays a spade, I reenter the S hand and draw trump. If he ducks a 2nd time, I duck too, ruff a club with the K.

If RHO started with AJxx and made a cagey duck of the 9, rise with the K. If he wins and taps dummy, diamond to hand, Q♠, etc.. If he ducks, diamond to hand, ruff the club and lose the 2 spades.

This is a very complicated hand, and I may have tripped myself up along the way.

[nige1]

fred, on Oct 25 2008, 10:36 AM, said:

The opponents never bid and you reach 4S.
West leads the King of clubs and continues with Queen of clubs.
Plan the play.
I am not sure I know the right answer to this one. It would not surprise me in the least if someone were to find a better line than the line that I think is correct.

---

LHO has a ♣ sequence so has less room for ♠AJx(x). Against other 3-2 and 4-1 trump breaks MikeH's line usually works:
Ruff the 2nd ♣, cross to ♥Q. ♠ to ♠K..

• If ♠K wins, and LHO shows out when you finesse ♠T, then ruff a ♣ and claim before you make a mistake.
  
• Similarly if RHO wins and leads a ♣ then ruff, and finesse ♠T. If that wins, then cash ♠Q and claim.

[Hanoi5]

I'd ruff and play a spade to the 8.

[fred]

Hanoi5, on Oct 26 2008, 02:28 PM, said:

I'd ruff and play a spade to the 8.

I believe that is essentially correct (though you left out some details!). I am more than a little surprised that nobody else came up with this this given the amount of thought that various posters apparently put into this problem and given that just about every other line has been suggested.

As several of you mentioned, your aim should be to give yourself a chance when a defender was dealt AJxx of spades. Ideally of course you would like to be able to do this without exposing yourself to any significant risk when spades are 3-2.

The best way to do this (I think) is to run the 9 of spades at trick 2. Playing a spade to the 10 or 8 is just as good, but leading the 9 first simplifies the rest of the analysis that follows. If the 9 of spades loses to the Ace you can basically claim. If it loses to the Jack then you either need spades 3-2 or some luck in terms of the distribution of the player who was dealt 4 spades.

If the 9 of spades holds there are several ways in which you can continue that will more or less guarantee your contract:

1) Probably best is to lead dummy's King of spades next. RHO with AJxx must duck - then cross to your hand, ruff a club, and play winners.

2) You could lead dummy's remaining x of spades next. In real life this will work just as well as 1) but there is an interesting twist (that is not likely to be a factor in real life). Assuming RHO plays low (else no problem) and assuming your LHO is Descarte's evil genius, you might want to consider playing the Queen(!) from your hand in this variation. This would be necessary to counter the remarkable play of a first round duck by an evil genius LHO with AJx.

3) Another possibility that I am mostly mentioning because I found it to be interesting and counter-intuitive: Once the 9 of spades holds, in practice you can come close to guaranteeing the contract by starting to run diamonds.

I think the second best line is to take the other first round finesse against the Jack of spades (by crossing to your hand and finessing LHO for the Jack). This line is inferior to the one I recommend because it will expose you to additional danger of ruffs (if LHO has Ax of spades and 5 hearts for example).

Also, while it is true that *any* first round finesse against the Jack of spades exposes you to additional danger of ruffs when diamonds are 4-1, LHO almost certainly would have played a diamond at trick 2 (or on opening lead) if he had a singleton in that suit. If RHO is the one with the singleton diamond then it is better to take the first round spade finesse against him - you will only suffer a diamond ruff if LHO started with AJ doubleton of spades and if he figures out to switch to diamonds. A spade to the 9 is more likely to result in a diamond ruff, not only because Ax on your left is more likely than AJ, but also because it will be easy for RHO to switch to his singleton diamond after he wins his Jxx of spades.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[nige1]

Well done Hanoi5!
Great problem, Fred! Thank you

[kenrexford]

I'm not sure I buy this. It still seems to me that the risk of enabling a ruff by playing a heart is lower than the risk of placing the spade Jack in the wrong hand, and I'm betting on the Jack with LHO. Ruffs seem unlikely as a serious threat when opponents win the opening lead but continue a suit against a known stiff.