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You are in 3NT and have outside entries in either hand. You have to make 3 tricks in this suit to make the contract. 2 balanced hands shown in the bidding.
Dummy has AK82
You have J9
Opps who were strong played it one way and made , I played it another and went down. Guess how I played it and what are the odds for success of alternative plays?
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Guess how I played this suit combination? Hand 1 Nikko
#1
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Posted 2008-February-22, 06:25
May 2003: Mission accomplished
Oct 2006: Mission impossible
Soon: Mission illegal
Oct 2006: Mission impossible
Soon: Mission illegal
#2
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Posted 2008-February-22, 06:47
looks like a double hook...
#3
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Posted 2008-February-22, 07:13
This is an interesting one. You can play LHO for holding at least one of the honours, which is 76%. That seems the best you can do legitimately.
Alternatively, lead small towards the nine, intending to run the jack if the nine loses to the ten. That should be just a little over 74%, but RHO has to avoid jumping in with the queen from Qx or Qxx, which might not be too easy. Certainly in the NICKO I'd try it that way.
Alternatively, lead small towards the nine, intending to run the jack if the nine loses to the ten. That should be just a little over 74%, but RHO has to avoid jumping in with the queen from Qx or Qxx, which might not be too easy. Certainly in the NICKO I'd try it that way.
#4
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Posted 2008-February-22, 08:52
If entries are all fine you should play the J towards dummy then repeat later.
Kevin Fay
#5
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Posted 2008-February-22, 08:56
kfay, on Feb 22 2008, 03:52 PM, said:
If entries are all fine you should play the J towards dummy then repeat later.
I like David's approach. After all, of 128 contingencies the 15 involve Qx or Qxx by RHO so if he steps up in 20% of those cases it is better than the repeated finesse over LHO.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
#6 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-February-23, 01:03
small to 9 is obv in real life vs non world class opps.
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Posted 2008-February-23, 04:45
I'd play to the nine against any opponent. Even technically I am OK against Q or QT or no honour in LHO.
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Posted 2008-February-23, 13:17
I had not pre-thought this card combination and at the table I did not think that I could do better than the double hook 75% (76%?) chance. So that is what I did. Unfortunately Q10x onside. 
I see now that can be improved as pointed out. Thinking what I might do if I were East, I would play low with Qxxx(xx) and the Queen with Qxx or less. I am not sure that opps would be brave or clever enough to play low (without hesitation) with Qx or Qxx. With this assumption I can see that if I play low to the 9 and run the Jack if taken by the 10. Then I lose only to Qxxx(xx) with East. Odds of success about 88%?
Yes obvious now, but at the table
I see now that can be improved as pointed out. Thinking what I might do if I were East, I would play low with Qxxx(xx) and the Queen with Qxx or less. I am not sure that opps would be brave or clever enough to play low (without hesitation) with Qx or Qxx. With this assumption I can see that if I play low to the 9 and run the Jack if taken by the 10. Then I lose only to Qxxx(xx) with East. Odds of success about 88%? Yes obvious now, but at the table
May 2003: Mission accomplished
Oct 2006: Mission impossible
Soon: Mission illegal
Oct 2006: Mission impossible
Soon: Mission illegal
#9
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Posted 2008-February-23, 14:30
Jlall, on Feb 23 2008, 02:03 AM, said:
small to 9 is obv in real life vs non world class opps.
9 loses to the 10. Now do you run the J on the way back or play for Qxx?
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
#10 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-February-23, 15:50
Winstonm, on Feb 23 2008, 03:30 PM, said:
Jlall, on Feb 23 2008, 02:03 AM, said:
small to 9 is obv in real life vs non world class opps.
9 loses to the 10. Now do you run the J on the way back or play for Qxx?
The point of small from dummy is that RHO will give away that he has the Q (by hesitating or just popping Q) enough of the time to make up for the small edge you lose in theory, so if he plays a smooth small you are planning on playing him to not have the Q.
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