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Is there a chance?

#1 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 03:15

Scoring: XIMP

East: 4S
Lead: D9

You have arrived in 4 as East. It would have been better to let West declare, but that can't be helped. At least you have avoided the killing heart lead. South leads 9.

Your worries are not over because you can see that A is offside. Is there a chance even if the opponents defend well? It sure looks like three heart losers and one club loser, doesn't it?.

The spectators claimed that the contract is always off if South is awake. Were they correct?

If you are advanced or better, please use hidden text, and if you are a B/I, don't peek if they do.

Roland
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#2 User is offline   Trumpace 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 04:01

Neat hand!

Spoiler



Hope analysis is correct.
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#3 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 10:38

Roland:

Spoiler

"Phil" on BBO
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#4 User is offline   goobers 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 11:28

I don't see how we can endplay N as long as S holds the HT :P
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#5 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 11:50

I think I actually get this one.

Declarer pulls spades and strips diamonds. Declarer leads a low club, won by north. North MUST exit in clubs, or give up a heart trick. When north exits in clubs, south MUST cover, or else dummy discards a heart and now clubs are stripped, and north must lead up to Kx or offer ruff-and-discard.

So south covers the club, and dummy ruffs, and returns - a low heart. If north wins, dummy will get a heart or ruff and sluff, so northhas to duck. South must win with the 10, and return a heart.

Down 1 on best defense?

V
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#6 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 11:53

goobers, on Nov 6 2007, 07:28 PM, said:

I don't see how we can endplay N as long as S holds the HT :P

I agree in the sense that if "we" had the 10 instead of the 9, it would be easier. Hint: perhaps the 9 is good enough!?

Roland
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#7 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 11:55

vuroth, on Nov 6 2007, 07:50 PM, said:

I think I actually get this one.

Declarer strips spades and diamonds. Declarer leads a low club, won by north. North MUST exit in clubs, or give up a heart trick. When north exits in clubs, south MUST cover, or else dummy discards a heart and now clubs are stripped, and north must lead up to Kx or offer ruff-and-discard.

So south covers the club, and dummy ruffs, and returns - a low heart. If north wins, dummy will get a heart or ruff and sluff, so northhas to duck. South must win with the 10, and return a heart.

Down 1 on best defense?

V

This was exactly what the spectators suggested, but I think they erred.

Roland
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#8 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 12:05

Trumpace's post is excellent. Clearly, my counting and visualization needs to be just a little bit sharper.

V
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#9 User is offline   goobers 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 13:05

Read TrumpAce's post. Geezus. Sorry p, down 1 for me.
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#10 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 13:19

Spoiler

Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2007-November-06, 14:31

goobers, on Nov 6 2007, 07:05 PM, said:

Read TrumpAce's post. Geezus. Sorry p, down 1 for me.

TrumpAce is our resident cardplay expert :)
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#12 User is offline   Trumpace 

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Posted 2007-November-07, 14:09

whereagles, on Nov 6 2007, 03:31 PM, said:

goobers, on Nov 6 2007, 07:05 PM, said:

Read TrumpAce's post.  Geezus. Sorry p, down 1 for me.

TrumpAce is our resident cardplay expert :)

Expert? No way! I showed this to a friend yesterday and I think he is still laughing... :)

Thank you for the compliment though...
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#13 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2007-November-07, 14:24

bid_em_up, on Nov 6 2007, 01:19 PM, said:

I think we can just endplay North no matter how he defends.  It really isn't a matter of a one suit squeeze, per se.

This is just about terminology, but this position is exactly a one-suite squeeze. A squeeze is a situation where you would like to keep more cards than you are allowed to. Here North would like to keep 3 heart honors (in case we cover his partner's 10), and a low heart (in case we don't).
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#14 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2007-November-07, 15:50

Trumpace's analysis is indeed excellent. Declarer played the hand exactly like that and there was nothing the defence could so. North returned a high club after winning the ace, and when South failed to cover, declarer simply pitched a heart loser.

The reason why I posted this in the B/I Forum is that during the hand, before and when South failed to cover the club exit, and even for some time after the hand, several so called experts among the spectators claimed that South fell asleep when he did not overtake partner's jack.

They did not spot that the contract is a make no matter what South does once he did not lead a heart. If the "experts" can't see that, I thought it would be a good idea to ask the intermediates. At least they can't do worse.

I wish that those "experts" in the audience would keep a lower profile when they can't analyse to save their lives. It's not embarrassing to be an inferior analyst, but in my opinion it is embarrassing that those people are the ones who keep talking.

The trouble is that the BI's might believe what they see on print, and that would be a bad idea in way too many cases.

Roland
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