[Foxx]

This hand came up on Vugraph recently, and none of the commentators could come up with a satisfactory solution. Indeed, as I see it, this problem could be considered worthy of the Master Solvers Club.

Scoring: IMP

---

 [space]W [space] [space] N [space] [space] E [space] [space] S

 [space] [space] [space] 1[di] [space]- Pass - 1[he]
3[sp] - Pass - Pass - ??

You play an ordinary, simple 2/1 system.

[Free]

I like Dbl...

[mike777]

Double.

The usual MSC solution bid.

[pclayton]

mike777, on Jun 27 2007, 12:54 PM, said:

Double.

The usual MSC solution bid.

Yeah, double and cue bids guarantee you at least an 80

Could 4N be natural? If so I like it. Otherwise, I'm a little torn between 3N and x.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

I would say, it is simple, either make an
optional X, or bid 3NT, I would say, it depends
on the quality of the 3S overcalls, if the guy
is known to be agressive pass, else bid 3NT.

Most likely X is best, because, you may get
another chance to speak, after 3NT you wont.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[whereagles]

sounds like a normal three no trumps bid ^^

[scoob]

3NT for me

[Apollo81]

I would bid 3NT, a contract I expect to make.

[hrothgar]

I agree with the "panel". I am torn between X and 3NT.

At the table, I expect that I would bid 3N

[Cascade]

Apollo81, on Jun 28 2007, 11:02 AM, said:

I would bid 3NT, a contract I expect to make.

If I double and partner bids 3NT then I would expect to make.

If I bid 3NT here then I would hope to make but I think it is far from certain - hearts might not run, partner might not furnish quick tricks.

And bidding 3NT makes it hard to get to 4♥.

I would double and see what eventuates.

[Echognome]

I'm also doubling. So we probably won't get to 3NT. Wtp?

If we bid 3NT, we're probably not getting to slam when it's right. Our hand is prime and can certainly play well in diamonds or in hearts. Flexibility means we're doubling.

[foo]

Foxx, on Jun 27 2007, 03:43 PM, said:

This hand came up on Vugraph recently, and none of the commentators could come up with a satisfactory solution.  Indeed, as I see it, this problem could be considered worthy of the Master Solvers Club.

North,N/S,IMP,

♠A3♥AKQT8♦832♣A64

N Opens
1♦-pa- 1♥-(3♠);
pa-pa-??

You play an ordinary, simple 2/1 system.

This is IMPs @ Unfavorable.

We have at least 12+17= 29 HCP between Us.

In order to beat Our >= 600 in 3N, We have to set 3♠X at least 4 tricks for 800.
IOW, we have to take 8 tricks vs 3♠X.

If pd had a big enough hand that slam was a reasonable possibility, does anyone really think it logical that they would pass an obvious WJO in a situation were We have !not! established a Forcing Pass?
Therefore, pd's hand is probably not that good...

Our hand does not have much defense vs 3♠X. pd isn't showing much in that regard either.

Given our hand and pd's 1♦ Opening, I think it's more likely that We will take 9 tricks in 3N than 8 tricks vs 3♠X. And the risk/reward ratio these colors playing IMPs gives even more reason to prefer Play vs Defend.
This is not an easy decision, but I think the logic and math supports

3N as my bid.

[mcphee]

Looks like dble is a winner to me. It is true we will miss a good 3N , but maybe we'll find a good D slam even.

[jdonn]

The longer I think about it this hand is waaaaaaaay too good for 3NT. If partner holds AQJxxx of diamonds and the heart jack, that alone is usually enough to make 7NT here, of course I'm not saying we would bid a grand slam but just to show the power of our hand. Alternatively it could be a hand where slam makes in a suit but 3NT goes down, like Qx x KQJxxx KQxx or something. I will double, if partner passes (unlikely) we should slaughter them, if he reopens with any suit I will probably bid 4♠ next and hope he isn't some ill fitting minimum.

[kenrexford]

4♣.

[P_Marlowe]

foo, on Jun 27 2007, 09:25 PM, said:

Foxx, on Jun 27 2007, 03:43 PM, said:

This hand came up on Vugraph recently, and none of the commentators could come up with a satisfactory solution.  Indeed, as I see it, this problem could be considered worthy of the Master Solvers Club.

North,N/S,IMP,

♠A3♥AKQT8♦832♣A64

N Opens
1♦-pa- 1♥-(3♠);
pa-pa-??

You play an ordinary, simple 2/1 system.

This is IMPs @ Unfavorable.

We have at least 12+17= 29 HCP between Us.

In order to beat Our >= 600 in 3N, We have to set 3♠X at least 4 tricks for 800.
IOW, we have to take 8 tricks vs 3♠X.
<snip>

True, but only 50% of the truth.
If you beat them "only" -3, the IMP lose is minimal,
depends on the length of the match, 500 instead of 600
is not the end of the world playing IMP's.
3NT may or may not make, surely we expect 3NT to
make most of the time, but not always, but if you play
3SX, you will go plus.

In other words if you make arguments based on
a percentage anylsis, please include also 3NT-X,
and +300 or +500 beats -50 or -100 by a fair IMP
margin.

With kind regards
Marlowe

PS: most likely I bid 3NT, but I am also convinced, that
X is probably the better bid.

[paulg]

I think double is clear too so unworthy of the MSC (need 3 options) but certainly a nasty hand.

It's unclear how to continue after partner's 4♣/4♦. Josh's 4♠ is getting us very high with no agreed fit so perhaps we need a natural 4NT at that point .. certainly testing our agreements!

[Fluffy]

double and 3NT are appealing, I would bid 3NT if I was weaker (no club ace for example). now I'll try a double.

[FrancesHinden]

I was commentating on this hand at the time, and I thought double was obvious, with a second choice a natural 4NT (but I wanted a second spade stop for that).

Sadly the player at the table (a better player than 99.9% of the posters here) disagreed.

Happily double has more chance of being successful than 3NT.