[FrancesHinden]

One of the harder things to get right at the table is when you have a choice of two possible lines, both of which are obviously very good, but each picks up a different unlikely layout. You don't always have time to do a detailed analysis, but you still have to play a card....

Scoring: Total Points

1♦ P 2♣ P
2♦ P 3♠ P
4♦ P 4♥ P
4♠ P 5♣ P
6♦ all pass

---

You get the expected heart lead (the 2, playing standard leads)

Plan the play.
In particular: ace of diamonds now or later?

[awm]

I'd win the lead, play ♦A, and then run three rounds of clubs. Playing ♦A is a safety play in the trump suit (for one loser) anyway, and also might help if someone has short clubs and ♦Kx for example.

[Free]

awm, on Jun 20 2007, 03:56 PM, said:

I'd win the lead, play ♦A, and then run three rounds of clubs.

Same thought

[mikeh]

Interesting hand.

Not only is there the ♦A issue, but we have the 4th round of spades to worry about. If we play one round of trump and (absent the K dropping) play on crossruff lines, it is possible that the 4th round of spades gets ruffed with the ♦J and we still lose the K. OTOH, we could play to be in dummy after ruffing 2 spades and then play the last top ♣. If RHO is out of ♣s, we are in charge. If RHO shows in, we are committed to hoping LHO held Kx of ♦s or that rho has 4=2=3=4 shape (altho in that case, he has already made a pitch on the 3rd round of ♥s, which pitch may (will) have impacted our line of play.

Against very trustworthy opps, we will have a lot of clues re the shape, but opps who give honest count in these situations are not the sort you worry about beating anyway.

As it is, I have no clear feeling as to the correct line... I have a sneaking hunch that delaying the ♦A play will preserve more options for us... but, when I roll through the permutations, I can't quickly identify any Except: if I play my trump A early, then I have to return to my hand for ♠ ruffs by ruffing ♥s and that will allow an RHO with only 2♥s to make a black suit pitch... especially a ♠ from xxxx (if he has 3=2 in the majors, I may be in trouble anyway).

So to avoid that minor complication, I win the ♥A, cash 3 tops in ♣s, pitching ♥s, ♠A ♠ ruff, cross in trump, ♠ ruff and then:

If the ♠K has appeared, play trump. If the ♠K has not appeared, but the ♦J has, crossruff. If neither have appeared, then, subject to table feel, cash the last top ♣...

Of course, the drop of the ♦K will change the line

Interesting question: what if the 3rd round of ♣s is ruffed? I won't go there, altho I have answers (depends on who ruffs with which trump... but I will definitely, in that case, wish I'd played the ♦A first)

[foo]

I'm with mikeh. This is a tough hand.

I also don't feel good about playing the ♦A right away. Seems too committal.

[mike777]

edit.

Just going to crossruff the heck out of the hand.

Plan A

1) AH
2)AS
3) ruff s
4) AKQ of c pitch H
5) ruff H
6) ruff s
7) ruff H
8) ruff s
9) d to Q
10 AD

Plan B

They overruff at some point I will rethink the hand.

[ArcLight]

I'll play for clubs 4-3

1 Win heart Ace.
2 Dime to Ace
3,4,5 3 rounds of clubs, discarding 2 hearts
6 Dime to Q (if east has the K and plays another Im in hand, if dimes 2-2 win any return)

7 - win somewhere, or lose to Easts Kxx if the Q won, then win the return

8 Spade Ace
9 Spade ruff
10 last 2 clubs good for 2 spade discards

[Fluffy]

♥A then 3 rounds of clubs without playing any diamond

[Free]

Fluffy, on Jun 20 2007, 09:42 PM, said:

♥A then 3 rounds of clubs without playing any diamond

And then?

[whereagles]

then a diamond to the Q

[mikeh]

I think I had a blind spot: I'm not at all sure why I felt there was any need to ruff ♠s at all....at least, not until we have played a trump or two.


Arclight's plan looks pretty good to me. Including, if we are playing for ♣s to set up, an early cash of the ♦A, since it obviates a potentially tricky guess if the 3rd round of ♣s is ruffed on our left. It also guards against the very low but just possible scenario in which LHO is 1=2 in the minors, with any stiff ♦.

If the top ♣s behave, then the trump to the Q wins whenever the contract can be made, other than 0=4 trumps, when perhaps a 1st round trump hook might have been better.

Compared to my earlier line, this makes a lot more sense: I got myself all tangled up with the wrong issue.... I find this happens to me frequently when the hand is posed with a specific question, as opposed to just the hands and nothing else. This is NOT a criticism of the post: more a confession of a flaw in my way of thinking

I have seen a reason to keep the ♦A intact: if RHO has a stiff ♣, we need to be able to overruff and then ruff a ♠, after cashing the A, and lead another high ♣ off dummy, overruffing again if needed: this way, if RHO holds KJx or Kxx in trump along with a stiff ♣, we still prevail. However this is a low percentage parlay and I think the early cash of the trump Ace is better.

[mike777]

Ya Arc's line is nice. I like it.

[mike777]

Frances, if no more comments on this one may we please have the full hand?

[FrancesHinden]

The full hand isn't that interesting; all sensitble lines make (actually they managed to go off in the other room, but that's neither here nor there).
RHO has Kxxxxx Kxxx J xx.

As Justin said on similarly in another thread - it's not the result that matters, it's the problem.

At the table, I was dummy. I watched my partner - who is a careful and technically very sound declarer player - think for quite a long time at trick one and then cash clubs without touching trumps. I asked him why during the break and he said something like "it felt too committal to cash the DA first"

I have thought a bit further about the hand since, but I don't think I'd get this far or this detailed at the table:

The line you would like to take is to cash 3 clubs, the ace of diamonds, and lead a trump towards hand. The problem is that you can't.

You don't want to take 3 clubs, the DA, a spade ruff and a trump up as they might be able to win from Kxx of trumps and force dummy, and you lose the long clubs.

Ignore the times that LHO has two trump tricks, or a singleton club (on the first you are always off, on the second you are going to go off in practice). You are also likely to go off some of the times you can make if spades are 7-1.

1. Suppose clubs are 4-3.
------------------------------
Cashing the DA first picks up all pick-up-able trump holdings except some times when there are 4 trumps onside. (DA, 3 rounds of clubs. Ace of spades, S ruff, club ruffed and over-ruffed, spade ruff, club ruffed... and you are off if RHO has a doubleton spade with his 4 trumps. So we lose to RHO having 1 or 2 spades and 4 trumps only.

If we don't cash the DA, we play 3 rounds of clubs and run the D9, planning to cash the DA next. We are off if the D9 loses to singleton Jack, but making every time otherwise, including 4-0 trumps. (I think this is better than low to the DQ which loses to singleton king (same likelihood) but you are in much more trouble if trumps are 4-0).

Cashing the DA first is better, by a fair chunk I think (singleton DJ is about 6%, 4-0 is about 4% and you aren't quite off even then; also LHO might have bid over 1D with K10xxxx in spades, a heart honour and a diamond void)

2. Suppose clubs are 6-1
-----------------------------
If LHO has a singleton you are, in practice going off (even if you could make by immediately drawing trumps that loses on so many more likely layouts). I don't believe LHO can be 1-1 in the minors given the auction.

If RHO has the singleton you are better off not cashing the DA first if he has the DK, but this is extremely unlikely (about 0.25%). Any other singleton you are OK.

3. Suppose clubs are 2-5 (shortage on your left)
-------------------------------------------------------
You always lose to Kxx on your left (if you cash the ace and the jack falls, you may alternatively select to play a second trump and hope clubs are 4-3).
If you cash the DA first you lose to xx or Jx in trumps on your left (3 holdings)
If you don't cash the DA first, you stil have to play diamonds after the 3rd round of clubs is ruffed. Now you lose to
(low to the 10: lose to Jx, Kx, KJ - 5 holdings)
(low to the Queen: lose to Kx, KJ,x - 5 holdings)
(low to the ace: lose to xx, Jx, x, J - 6 holdings)

and you are worse off by 2 doubleton holdings by not cashing the DA first. 1-1 in the minors on your left is very unlikely indeed.

4. Suppose clubs are 5-2 (shortage on your right)
--------------------------------------------------------
If you cashed the DA first, you over-ruff the third club, play ace of spades and a ruff, and a fourth club.
If you didn't cash the DA first, you probably over-ruff and play the DA. Now you are back in the same position as above - you may still be in trouble if RHO has a doubleton spade, but there ain't a lot you can do about it.

So all in all, I think you should cash the DA to start with. Except for the layouts I have missed.

[hatchett]

Quote

4. Suppose clubs are 5-2 (shortage on your right)
--------------------------------------------------------
If you cashed the DA first, you over-ruff the third club, play ace of spades and a ruff, and a fourth club.
If you didn't cash the DA first, you probably over-ruff and play the DA. Now you are back in the same position as above - you may still be in trouble if RHO has a doubleton spade, but there ain't a lot you can do about it.

Say RHO isn't so kind to ruff the the third ♣ if he started with KJx diamond. If after the third club cashes you play a ♦ RHO rises and plays a third round,
now you only have 11 tricks (1♠, 1♠ruff, 1♥, 4♦ and 4♣). Say instead you continue ♠A, spade ruff, ♥ruff, ♠ruff, now you go off if RHO started with 3532, since he gets to ditch a spade on the third round of ♣s.

The still other variations to the play. If the second ♠ruff stands up you could now try another ♣, but this fails if RHO started with 5422 including Kx ♦ he ruffs and gives partner a trump promotion by playing a fourth round of ♠s.
If you try the fourth round of ♣s earlier you give RHO another chance to discard another ♠, and you fail if he started with 4432. A very complex hand.

[FrancesHinden]

hatchett, on Jun 22 2007, 10:08 PM, said:

Say RHO isn't so kind to ruff the the third ♣ if he started with KJx diamond. If after the third club cashes you play a ♦ RHO rises and plays a third round,
now you only have 11 tricks (1♠, 1♠ruff, 1♥, 4♦ and 4♣). Say instead you continue ♠A, spade ruff, ♥ruff, ♠ruff, now you go off if RHO started with 3532, since he gets to ditch a spade on the third round of ♣s.

The still other variations to the play. If the second ♠ruff stands up you could now try another ♣, but this fails if RHO started with 5422 including Kx ♦ he ruffs and gives partner a trump promotion by playing a fourth round of ♠s.
If you try the fourth round of ♣s earlier you give RHO another chance to discard another ♠, and you fail if he started with 4432. A very complex hand.

Yes. I'm not sure many Easts would be able to resist ruffing with 22 in the minors.

This is the sort of hand that never gets analysed properly, because it's going to make most of the time whatever line you take, and much of the rest of the time you have two natural diamond losers.