[FrancesHinden]

Scoring: IMP

1♠(1) 1NT(2)
3♣(3) 3♥(4)
4♦(5) 4♠(6)
P

---

(1) Probably should have opened 2C
(2) Semi-forcing
(3) game forcing with 4+ diamonds (with only 4 diamonds you need a lot to game force)
(4) North thought this showed 6 hearts, South thought it showed 5 (yes, I know I'm the one who always says you shouldn't play complex methods without discussing them in detail)
(5) 5-5, expecting partner to bid 4H with 6
(6) Thinking he had already shown 6 and had good spades in context

You get a low club lead to the 10 and Ace
You play ace and another diamond. LHO plays the 10 on the first round, and the Queen on the second. RHO thinks briefly and overtakes the Queen with the King, then switches to a trump. You win in hand, everyone following.
You ruff a diamond in dummy with the SJ, LHO discarding a club.

Now what?

[mikeh]

It's early in the am for me, and the caffeine may not have fully kicked in yet, but I have to admit that I haven't yet understood the caption to the problem

We have missed a reasonable slam in ♥s.. even on a ♦ lead, we can cash top trump and run the ♠s, hoping to find that suit no worse than 4-2 and trump 3-2 (or 5-1 ♠s with the long ♠s holding the 3rd trump)... but that result is irrelevant so long as we make our 4♠... we lose 13 anyway we slice it, don't we? That is, asssuming they bid it, and it is not an easy slam to reach. I suspect I would lose a lot of matches to teams that routinely bid 6♥ knowing what they were doing

But we haven't made 4♠ yet.... it is not that we are going to fail when slam makes.. we can't go down here if ♥s are 3-2 even if trump are 5-1.

I would play a ♥ to my Ace and test trump. If trump are no worse than 4-2, draw trump and concede a ♦. If trump are 5-1, draw all but one trump and lead to the ♥K. If that holds, ruff the safest round suit (almost surely a club). If LHO holds 5 trump and a stiff ♥, and he ruffs the ♥, we need him to have the ♣K. If he leads it, pitch a ♦.. he will then have to give you the ♣Q and your tiny trump. If he leads low ♣, you have to play the Q and pray it holds.

If RHO holds 5 trumo and a stiff ♥... he ruffs, and is endplayed as well... if he has the ♣K. If he plays it, ruff and exit a ♦ and he has to give you the ♣Q. If he underleads it, you have to pitch.

I started out thinking that there wasn't much to this hand, which surprised me, considering it was Frances who posted it, and her hands are always interesting

Maybe I missed the point anyway, but I kinda liked the 5-1 trump break analysis... assuming I got it partway right

[Fluffy]

I have been thinking of ♥K + ♥A for 10 minutes, but I can see no hand where it makes a difference except for the lose of an overtrick, everytime contract is either doomed or will make anyway.

♥ finese might lose to a 4-2 break in trumps, so I would enver consider it.

I'd play ♥ to the Ace at the table without thinking this much for sure. Still now I think its best (but suspect its not)

[FrancesHinden]

mikeh, on May 14 2007, 04:03 PM, said:

I would play a ♥ to my Ace and test trump.

...followed by detailed 5-1 trump break analysis

fluffy, on May 14, said:

I'd play ♥ to the Ace at the table without thinking this much for sure

I'm so pleased to see these replies.

I played a heart to the Ace without thinking too hard about it.
It was ruffed on my right.
RHO then played a diamond, which LHO ruffed, and returned another heart, ruffed on my right.

One off. Ouch. 4H made exactly in the other room.

My partner (politely, after the end of the day's play) observed that ruffing a club to hand instead makes the contract every time trumps aren't 5-1, and even if they are as long as hearts are 3-2. He claimed I would have been forced in clubs in trumps were 5-1, rather than having a trump played back, so they probably aren't. I'm not entirely sure if that's true, as one possibly line I could play on a bad trump break is to take 7 trumps & 3 aces with 2 diamond ruffs.

This then led to a discussion of the imps scale. If the opponents are also in game, or are going off in slam, you cost 1 imp by crossing on a club ruff if trumps are 4-2 by giving up on the overtrick. You cost 12 imps by getting the ace of hearts ruffed on your right by a hand with 3 or 4 spades (the heart being ruffed on your left isn't a problem, it's only the overtrick gone).

So,
i) Is it more likely that trumps are 5-1 & hearts 4-1, or that hearts are 5-0 the wrong way, given the defence so far? (You are playing the weakest team in the event, but they have still won 5 32-board KO matches to get to this final)

ii) Even if hearts 5-0 is more likely, is it worth giving up on the overtrick with spades 4-2 in this sort of event?

[mikeh]

Fluffy, on May 14 2007, 10:11 AM, said:

I have been thinking of ♥K + ♥A for 10 minutes, but I can see no hand where it makes a difference except for the lose of an overtrick, everytime contract is either doomed or will make anyway.

♥ finese might lose to a 4-2 break in trumps, so I would enver consider it.

I'd play ♥ to the Ace at the table without thinking this much for sure. Still now I think its best (but suspect its not)

If you cash the ♥K and then the A.... if the Q drops stiff, you lose a potential end position, and if the Q10 is tight, you would have had the rest of the tricks going the other way..but that is an overtrick issue.

More importantly: are there risks to the contract if the second ♥ is ruffed before you pull any more trump?

LHO won't ruff with an original 2=1=2=8, since he won't have that shape. If RHO ruffs from 2=1=4=6 (which is possible, altho unlikely), he leads a ♣ and you have to guess. Do you ruff it and pull trump, hoping that the suit was originally 3-3 or 2=4, and then concede a ♦, losing only 2 diamonds and a ruff, or do you pitch, hoping that RHO holds the ♣K.. if you ruff and then have to pull 3 more rounds of trump, you are down.. they cash a ♣ when in with the long ♦.

This is why, imo, the correct play is a ♥ to the A, not the K first.

[Fluffy]

ok, I was so obsessed on finding a superiority on that play that I failed to look at the problems it created

About if even at IMPs overtrick matters more than 0.6345% safety plays I have no idea.

[FrancesHinden]

mikeh, on May 14 2007, 04:03 PM, said:

We have missed a reasonable slam in ♥s.. even on a ♦ lead,

Beside the point really, but while slam in hearts may be reasonable on a diamond lead it's pretty vile on a club lead