[kenrexford]

Scoring: MP

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South opens 1♥. North bids 1♠ (!!!). South rebids 2♦. North bids 2♥, the final contract.

Trick #1: You lead a somewhat obscure third-best club; the functional if not actual deuce. Declarer strains for quite a long time before losing the Jack to partner's queen.

Trick #2: Partner switches to a spade, won by Declarer with the Ace, you playing a readably high third-best card in the suit. (Standard Ct/Att)

Trick #3: Declarer leads a heart toward the 10 in dummy, won by partner with the Ace; you contributed a pip that systemically suggested an interesting diamond holding, as if this was not obvious already.

Trick #4: Partner leads the diamond 10, Declarer plays the Jack, and you win the Queen. Dummy's diamonds are essentially 4-3-2.

Your play, and reasoning...

[han]

I'm going to assume that the opponents are good players, even though the 1S bid is strange.

Declarer can't have 3 spades.

Declarer can't have 3 clubs either, they wouldn't take the finesse at trick 1.

If declarer is 2-5-5-1 then declarer wouldn't take the finesse either, and we can't beat 1-5-5-2 (and also there they wouldn't take the finesse).

So that leaves declarer with Ax KQJxx KJxx xx. This is also strange, as declarer could pitch the spade on the clubs before playing trump. We need to play one spade (the queen) and exit with a club to beat the contract, hopefully partner has 1098 of diamonds (with 109x partner shouldn't have wasted the 10?).

If partner's count card suggests that declarer started with 3 spades then I'm going to believe partner and cash another spade.

By the way, what is obscure about a low club? It seems the normal lead, clubs is the only unbid suit.

[pclayton]

In no particular order:

It seems to me that declarer is either 2=5=4=2 or 3=5=4=1. Declarer isn't 2=5=5=1, since declarer didn't take the A-K♣ for a spade pitch.

Declarer can't hold 4 clubs; hooking makes no sense.

If Declarer held 3 (and pard had 2 clubs); with trump control, pard would have led a club back at T2.

If Declarer held 2 clubs, declarer would have tried to pitch a spade on the A-K clubs. This perhaps is unclear, and declarer is playing a deep game, trying to enjoy all of dummy's clubs. At the very least, I will get a present count signal on the spade, and play a club if pard shows me 4 original spades.

Declarer hooked clubs at T1 to try to dump 2 spade losers. Therefore, South holds specifically: Axx, KQJxx, KJxx, x. Is this a 2♠ call? It is in my book, but maybe not for everyone.

[kenrexford]

This is interesting for me. I was in the seat shown and caught hell (sort of -- mostly friendly discussion) for my decision at the table. I'll hold off on this for a second. But, a few observations are in order.

First, Declarer is a relatively good player (ACBL A Flight, frequent contender), but he is capable of bizarre play (like all of us).

Second, does not the situation call for count in spades at your first discard? Isn't a positive attitude somewhat implied anyway, or less relevant? If partner knows you have an even number of spades, might he not switch to spades after winning the heart when a spade can be cashed, giving count? This would allow you to switch to the second club. But, what if partner has five spades?

Third, is it all that automatic to lead back a club at trick two, or even at trick four, when partner holds two clubs? If clubs are as they appear to partner from my lead, namely 5332, then a club back yields a heart to partner's Ace and a switch problem. Guess wrong, or give Opener both Aces, and the club suit comes in anyway, without us setting up our spades in time.

My thought was that partner would not lead back a club with Qx at trick two for the reasons stated above. With three clubs, he would not lead back a club now unless we have exhausted our spade-taking ability. He may be concerned with five spades that we are done now, especially after the club play by Declarer. So, partner rates to have five spades, giving Declarer one and 1543/1552/1642 pattern.

Partner would typically lead a second club now, unless it was pointless, when spades are exhausted and he has three clubs. With two clubs and five spades, he may need to attack diamonds. This leans me toward 1543 for Opener. However, with that holding, Declarer will ditch two diamonds at the end, so my defense is relatively meaningless. If I cash two diamonds, if I lead back a club, if I try to cash a second spade -- all roads lead to Rome.

What if, however, Declarer was 1552? Would he take the hook?

Maybe. Perhaps he gambled (seeing the lead himself) on clubs splitting 3-3 and poor defense (allowing clubs to come in for him), or maybe he simply expects that the transportation issues will make diamond establishment very difficult, such that a third club trick is an extra trick. With that layout, I can cash a second diamond and then give partner a diamond ruff. We hold them to eight tricks. Anything else allows nine tricks.

Is this crazy thought, plausible, a good analysis, or other?

[han]

kenrexford, on Mar 26 2007, 07:45 AM, said:

Second, does not the situation call for count in spades at your first discard? Isn't a positive attitude somewhat implied anyway, or less relevant? If partner knows you have an even number of spades, might he not switch to spades after winning the heart when a spade can be cashed, giving count? This would allow you to switch to the second club. But, what if partner has five spades?

Which discard, I believe nobody has discarded yet. If you mean our first spade play, I think that declarer can hold the king so attitude seems normal. If you frequently give count here perhaps you should have told us. It seems wrong for declarer to take the finesse at trick 1 with a singleton spade. Should we play declarer for a mistake?

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Third, is it all that automatic to lead back a club at trick two, or even at trick four, when partner holds two clubs?  If clubs are as they appear to partner from my lead, namely 5332, then a club back yields a heart to partner's Ace and a switch problem.  Guess wrong, or give Opener both Aces, and the club suit comes in anyway, without us setting up our spades in time.

I think that this is fairly automatic, yes, and there is no problem because you would give suit preference.

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My thought was that partner would not lead back a club with Qx at trick two for the reasons stated above.  With three clubs, he would not lead back a club now unless we have exhausted our spade-taking ability.  He may be concerned with five spades that we are done now, especially after the club play by Declarer.  So, partner rates to have five spades, giving Declarer one and 1543/1552/1642 pattern.

I can't follow your logical argument here. Partner wouldn't lead back a club unless declarer has no spade left, partner didn't lead a club back so declarer has no spades left? Surely you meant something different when you wrote this.

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What if, however, Declarer was 1552?  Would he take the hook?

I think that it is very unlikely that declarer would take the hook. Besides, partner would switch to a diamond immediately, when partner still has the heart ace.

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Maybe.  Perhaps he gambled (seeing the lead himself) on clubs splitting 3-3 and poor defense (allowing clubs to come in for him), or maybe he simply expects that the transportation issues will make diamond establishment very difficult, such that a third club trick is an extra trick.  With that layout, I can cash a second diamond and then give partner a diamond ruff.  We hold them to eight tricks.  Anything else allows nine tricks.

So he gambled a trick one finesse for a diamond discard from 5, not only risking the loss of a club trick but also the loss of a tempo and an entry to dummy? This is very farfetched, and partner's defense would also be strange.

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Is this crazy thought, plausible, a good analysis, or other? 

It's a very interesting hand, but your connstruction doesn't seem right to me.

[ArcLight]

Under what circumstances would Declarer bid 2♦ rather than raise responders 1♠ bid to 2, if they had 2 spades? A Great 5-5 hand? This isn't it.
Maybe i'm overlooking something, but I can't believe declarer has 3 spades.

With 2=5=4=2, and pard bidding spades, would you bid 1NT or 2♦?

With 2=5=5=1 you would bid 2♦. But then why finesse the clubs? You have no entry to Dummy if it loses. Take the AK , discarding a spade and then finesse in diamonds. Maybe the heart 10 (with KQJxx) will provide a 2nd diamond finesse

With 1=5=5=2 you would use the clubs for dime finesses.

With 1=5=4=3 you would bid 1NT not 2D.


The only pattern I can imagine is 2=5=4=2

Cash a spade and lead back the Club 10, to lock declarer in Dummy.
He can discard a dime, but will have to lead dimes from his hand, allowing pards 9 to make.

You win 1 Spade, 1 heart, 3 Dimes, 1 club = down 1

[kenrexford]

I still think the nuances are being missed here.

Give Declarer the 2542 hand some are envisioning:

♠Ax ♥KQJxx ♦KJxx ♣xx

As Declarer, you get a small club lead. You try the finesse, as it seems that the finesse may well work and that, no matter what, clubs are probably 3-3.

That fails, and RHO fires back a spade, clearing the suit.

Why now let the opponents in? Will they not cash a spade and then attack clubs? Why not immediately ditch the spade loser and then lead a diamond toward the KJ?

Now, with ♠A ♥KQJxx ♦KJxxx ♣xx:

You try the club finesse because it may work for an extra trick and because it probably costs nothing (clubs appear to be split 3-3). That fails, and a spade comes back.

Now, you would try pulling trumps because one pitch on the clubs does no good but three pitches on the clubs does a lot of good. Plus, you expect the opponents to try to cash a spade.

So, Declarer's line seems more consistent with 1552, to me.

What about partner's position? A club back from a doubleton does no good if partner lacks the spade Ace. Even if partner signals on the heart Ace for a spade switch, this is too late. If partner has the diamond Ace, that will allow partner to win and then play another club. But, it is not clear to fire back the club.

The reasoning on the spade count play is relatively simple. If Declarer had AKx, he would have raised spades. If Declarer had AK tight, he would not be expected to hook the club. So, Declarer seems to have Ax or stiff Ace anyway. With everyone seeing the club threat, the key question seems to be whether Declarer is seeking one spade pitch or several diamond pitches. Count answers that.

The huge, glaring question is why partner is risking Declarer having the diamond Ace. Why not lead back a club immediately or switch to a spade first so partner can lead back a club? The sole logic to me is that partner has a doubleton diamond. Then, the defense could go:

Club to the Queen.
Spade back.
Heart to the Ace.
Diamond to the Queen.
Diamond Ace.
Diamond ruff.
Spade to the King.
Diamond over-ruff.
Down two.

The main objection to this (offered by partner at the post-mortem) is that partner, with ♠xxxxx ♥Axx ♦xx ♣Qxx, should probably attack diamonds at trick two. Then it could go:

Club to the Queen.
Diamond back.
Diamond.
Diamond ruff.
Spade back.
Heart to the Ace.
Spade back.
Diamond over-ruff.

But, an error may have occurred somewhere. Maybe the greater concern was if partner held AQ in spades, where an immediate spade switch is called for, to avoid the impending club pitches.

[han]

kenrexford, on Mar 26 2007, 12:50 PM, said:

I still think the nuances are being missed here.

I doubt it, you said nothing new in this post. If people don't agree with your line, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are missing something.

[han]

Ken, could you please post the hands and tell what happened?

[kenrexford]

In reality, partner held four spades, three clubs, the 1098 of diamonds, and Axx in hearts. ♠xxx ♥Axx ♦1098 ♣Qxx; leaving Opener ♠Ax ♥KQJxx ♦KJxx ♣xx.

When the diamond 10 came back, I went into the tank. If I win the diamond, cash a spade, and exit a club, we end up winning another two diamonds, for down one.

I'm not claiming that this line is not a good line. However, the concern I had was that, if I try to cash a second spade and partner originally had five, then the opps win, pull trumps, and run the clubs. However, if I do not cash the second spade, the opps ditch that trick and make the contract. Thus, it seems that partner should have switched to a spade if he had four of them (and hence must have five of them) on the defense to date. Note that the diamond through first is unnecessary, as spade-club eventually leaves leaves Declarer in hand with KJx in diamonds and my hand will still have a spade exit oif he leads an honor. The diamond through is dangerous, however, if Declarer has the Ace.

It then occurred to me that with three diamonds, even 1098, but five spades, partner can immediately switch to the club instead of the diamond, as, again, the spade exit solution handles any diamond throw-in problems. Clearly, with 1092, for instance, a diamond lead is a bad idea. So, the only reason for a diamond lead from 3 seems to be from 1098, but that is a mirage.

Thus, Ocham's Razor suggests that a doubleton diamond is a possible reason.

The layout would then be partner with ♠xxxxx ♥Axx ♦10x ♣Qxx, and Opener with ♠A ♥KQJxx ♦KJxxx ♣xx.

If you object that Opener would not take the club finesse, hoping to ditch three diamonds (leaving KJ tight and a guess at the end), note that our declarer did essentially the same thing (when he failed to cash the two clubs to ditch a spade loser after his spade Ace was removed). At least with the stiff Ace instead he has an additional and real chance of a quick entry (those who did not give count on the spade and thus try to cash a second spade before leading the club).

[pclayton]

If you held: A, KQJxx, KJxxx, xx would you hook the club, and rely on clubs as your source of tricks instead of diamonds? No way. You'd rise, and play a diamond toward your hand.

I think the actual 2=5=4=2 is a lot more plausible, and consistent with declarer's play.