[Gerben42]

Would you ever pass 1NT with a 5-card major when responding? Assume you are playing transfers and so is the rest of the field.

A) In Butler scoring
In MP scoring

and why and on what hand. For the sake of the argument, assume your 1NT is 15 - 17.

[Miron]

I am not sure against the strong one.
But imho 5332 cards, where are very questionable the ruffing possibilities.
Next with strong suit (all points there - other suits smell) or weak suit (9xxxx - opps can cross ruff you).

[Walddk]

Yes, with 5 baby spades and scattered values, and with a totally useless hand for NT. Otherwise not, because you never know when it's right or wrong to transfer. So in my opinion you should stick to the rule that you always transfer, or if you prefer that you never transfer.

Don't try to guess if opener has a fit or not.

Roland

[P_Marlowe]

No.

Playing IMP's, i.e. Butler: the mayor suit
partial will usually be safer than 1NT

Playing MP: that's a philsophical issue,
Pass will only be ok, if you happen to make the same
number of tricks, ... hard to know in advance, because
you wont have lots to spare, if you are weak, 2M will be
safer and if you are stronger there may still be game around,
if partner can supper accept.

The only reason not to bid the transfer is fear of an super
accept, but then 1NT wont be fun as well.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[cherdano]

I transfer always, because I never have the hand Justin suggests above.

Arend

[MickyB]

I've done it once that I remember, on a 3523 with five to the 9. I actually had two aces outside (12-14 NT) but I'd sooner pass on the hand that Justin suggested.

[Gerben42]

My hand was not just as extreme as Justin's example but I asked this because of the discussion in the Raptor thread: Making the field bid. The field will transfer so you better be right when you do not.

So last night when it came up I thought about how far do you go when you think the field bid is not right?

As it turned out my decision didn't work out. At IMPs 120 or 140 wouldn't make any difference of course. Now it was a zero instead of an average (barring extreme stupidness from either side, the board was headed for 140).

[FrancesHinden]

Last Saturday (imps) I passed a 15-17 1NT holding

109xxx
Qxx
J10
Kxx

in spite of the fact partner had AJx in spades, it was still the right contract

But I pass very rarely indeed, because
i) If I have a very weak hand it nearly always plays better in my long suit
ii) If I have some values, I may want to be in game if partner breaks the transfer

so it has to have significant values outside the long suit, but be weak enough that there is no real chance of game

[Flame]

I agree with the pass examples before but let me try something totally different.
Playing Mp non vul vs vul you have
76543
72
6
KQ1063

What are the chances of 1NT being a wining spot? i set the vul possition, to give the opponents a resson to be quite since if they do bid i will be sad i passed first.

[cherdano]

Flame, on Feb 2 2006, 05:59 PM, said:

Playing Mp non vul vs vul you have
76543
72
6
KQ1063

I wouldn't even think about this but transfer.

[inquiry]

I know people who always transfer, I know people who only transfer with a singleton. Most, I think, use some sort of internal decision meter to decide. Maybe very weak spades and scattered stuff elsewhere, stick, otherwise transfer.

I think the weaker you are (0 to say 4 points), the more in favor you should transfer. For one thing, it gets you out of 1NT which is easier to double for penalty than 2♠. But this is a type of question that requires some futher analysis. Is it true you should run with weaker hands? Is iit true that with scattered values and weak spades, 1NT is better (on average)?

There are a number of ways to evaluate this, I did a short BRIDGEBROWSER evalation to see if running or standing works better with weak responding hands by the following criteria.

1) Opening bid of 1NT with 15-17 hcp
2) Responder has 0 to 9 hcp
3) Responder has five spades, xxxxx to AKQxx (no spade jack too as that would be 10 hcp)
4) Evaluated the final contract of 1NT or 2S based upon responder's hcp (and includes doubled and redoubled contracts, but really redoubles probably should have been left out, but there were so few it doesn't matter)

(this ignores contracts when opponents then come in, you have to play either 1NT or 2S to be included)

In the most current BBO tournament Database on BridgeBrowser (3.52 million tournament hands from oct 1 to dec 31 ), there were 74,533 hands that meet the requirement that someone opened 1NT with 15-17 hcp, the next hand passed, and responder had 0-9 hcp and five spades. Of these, the auction ended in 1NT 717 times. On these 717 hands, openers side average -0.14 imps and 45.09% matchpoints. The same 74,533 hand pool was played in 2♠ much more often (6732 times) via an auction that went 1N-2H-2S- all pass. The average result on these hands was also much better +0.47 imps, and 56.28% matchpoints. (these were the same deals... of course). As you can see, the 2♠ contract faired MUCH better than the 1NT contract.

Here is a table of how 1NT and 2♠ contracts faired based upon Responders HCP....

1NT Contracts
 [space] [space] [space] Imp [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] MP [space] [space] [space] 
HCP Hands [space] IMPS [space] [space] [space]hands [space] [space] [space]MP %
0 [space] [space] [space]21 [space] [space] [space] [space]0.78 [space] [space] [space] [space]2 [space] [space] [space]33.11
1 [space] [space] [space]24 [space] [space] [space] -0.41 [space] [space] [space]14 [space] [space] [space]41.5
2 [space] [space] [space]31 [space] [space] [space] [space] 0.28 [space] [space] [space]28 [space] [space] [space]42.41
3 [space] [space] [space]58 [space] [space] [space] [space] 0.11 [space] [space] [space]37 [space] [space] [space]53.29
4 [space] [space] [space]83 [space] [space] [space] [space] 0.14 [space] [space] [space]40 [space] [space] [space]44.73
5 [space] [space] [space]71 [space] [space] [space] -0.62 [space] [space] [space] 35 [space] [space] [space]38.08
6 [space] [space] [space]89 [space] [space] [space] -0.33 [space] [space] [space] 52 [space] [space] [space]48.92
7 [space] [space] [space]65 [space] [space] [space] -0.51 [space] [space] [space] 26 [space] [space] [space]44.61
8 [space] [space] [space]17 [space] [space] [space] [space]1.06 [space] [space] [space] [space] 9 [space] [space] [space]36.38
9 [space] [space] [space]12 [space] [space] [space] -0.54 [space] [space] [space] [space] 3 [space] [space] [space]43.95
 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
Two Spade Contracts [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
 [space] [space] [space] [space]Imp [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]MP [space] [space] [space] 
HCP [space]Hands [space] [space] [space]IMPS [space] [space] [space]hands [space] [space] [space]MP %
0 [space] [space] [space] 52 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]2.26 [space] [space] [space] [space]9 [space] [space] [space] [space] 61.17
1 [space] [space] [space] 81 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]2.49 [space] [space] [space] 33 [space] [space] [space] [space] 65.8
2 [space] [space] [space]180 [space] [space] [space] [space] 1.25 [space] [space] [space]125 [space] [space] [space] [space] 62.88
3 [space] [space] [space]343 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]0.57 [space] [space] [space]213 [space] [space] [space] [space]57.26
4 [space] [space] [space]654 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]0.66 [space] [space] [space]303 [space] [space] [space] [space]60.33
5 [space] [space] [space]872 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]0.87 [space] [space] [space]323 [space] [space] [space] [space]58.13
6 [space] [space] 1070 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]0.28 [space] [space] [space]509 [space] [space] [space] 56.24
7 [space] [space] [space]959 [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]0.24 [space] [space] [space]512 [space] [space] [space] 53.72
8 [space] [space] [space]235 [space] [space] [space] [space] -0.47 [space] [space] [space]112 [space] [space] [space] 42.66
9 [space] [space] [space] 46 [space] [space] [space] [space] -4.15 [space] [space] [space] [space]16 [space] [space] [space] 41.97

There are less hands with 8 and 9 hcp because people are making game tries, this only includes hands were final contract was 2♠ or 1NT. At 10 to 1, the field transfers, and the results suggest the transfer seems to work best with fewer hcp, as expected.

I did not examine suit quality, or responders districution above, but that is possible as well. Just as a teaser, responder with 5431 (regardless of hcp) averaged +0.25 imps and 55.89 playing in 2♠. With 5332 (regardless of hcp--twice as common), averaged 0.6 imps and 56.41 MP.

I haven't figured out how to look for poor suit quality and scattered values yet... I can search on Jxxxx or worse in spades, and 5332 and some number of ponits, but that requires changing the intial search criteria. Or I can look at poor suit quality (Jxxxx) but that doesn't mention other factors like side suit values. But my impression looking at some ot the boards turned up is poor spade suit, and goodsih side values the trend is to do as good or better in NT, but not always.

One thing seems clear, however, the field is transfering to spades overwhelmingly.

[Al_U_Card]

Re: Justin's example, the thought is that you have 7-8 hcp but your 5 card suit is NOT a source of tricks so rather than invite and end up in 2NT just play 1NT?

btw based on the above numbers, I have played 1 or 2 hands that meet the criteria so because I transfer ALL THE TIME I got about .5 imps extra?

[han]

I have never passed 1NT with a five-card major.

[luke warm]

neither have i

[Free]

Hannie, on Feb 2 2006, 08:25 PM, said:

I have never passed 1NT with a five-card major.

I have, when we were playing random 1NT (0-5hcp any).

When I have close to invitational values with a decent suit I rarely transfer. Otherwise I think it's still the winning action to transfer.

[Kalvan14]

with scattered values all outside the transfer suit and 6-7 HCP I prefer a pass

[mghmaine]

When I pass 1NT and my LHO balances with, say, 2H, I want partner to know I have only 4 when I now bid 2S.
That, added to the many comments about not knowing if a fit or not, leads me always to transfer with 5.

[coyot]

I would transfer in most cases, but I can imagine hands that are better off in 1NT - the two cases being:
1) no points outside the spade suit, mid-range (4-6 HCP). Here there is a possibility that partner will be able to pull home 4-5 spade tricks if he has the fit. Imagine AQxxx. Against Kxx this sounds nice, against xx still 1.5 tricks. In spade contract, the first option rarely scores less, but the second (small doubleton) might create extra tricks for defense (whereas in NT, if spades don't work, I could still try another suit.)

2) bad values (10 to Q) all outside spades.

I can let my partner live with "I always transfer" and treat these rare hands as judgement calls against the system.

[luke warm]

mghmaine, on Feb 2 2006, 08:54 PM, said:

When I pass 1NT and my LHO balances with, say, 2H, I want partner to know I have only 4 when I now bid 2S.
That, added to the many comments about not knowing if a fit or not, leads me always to transfer with 5.

i admit i don't understand this post... why would you pass 1nt and then bid 2s (with a 4 card suit) over 2h?