[FrancesHinden]

I usually put these on rgb, so let's see if the BBO analysis is better....
For some reason I seem to run into more difficult 3NT contracts than other people. Or perhaps I just find the play in them more interesting.

Aggregate (total points) scoring - you can pretend it's imps if you like. Game all.

Uncontested auction
1♦ - 1♥
2NT - 3NT

---

West leads the Queen of clubs (standard leads) and East plays the 5 (standard attitude).

Plan the play.
To give this a bit of help: the contract is makeable, but both declarers went off at the time. In the pub afterwards a team-mate suggested a slightly different line which would have made, but I don't know if it's actually an improvement single dummy or not.

After I get a majority consensus for the start of the play, I'll tell you what happens when the opponents are next on lead.

[pclayton]

I'll start with A♥ (check for HH dub) and duck a heart. Later I will float the ♣10 (duck if covered) and later hook against LHO's 9. I can count 7 with 3♣'s, 2♥ and 2♦'s. A 3rd ♥ gets me to 8 and I hopefully can figure out the endgame for #9.

[whereagles]

That line of PC seems good enough for me as well

[PMetsch]

I have not more than 4 tricks in ♣s and ♠s, so I need at least 5 tricks in ♦s and ♥s. I can play ♥s, but if that's wrong it may be too late to turn to ♦s. Actually if I play ♦s and ♣s first, then I might endplay someone with the 3rd round of ♥s, to play a ♠.

So the basic line is win ♣K and play ♣T (duck in the dummy). Say LHO leads a heart, win in hand, finesse the ♣, another ♣ (discarding a ♠) and finesse the ♦9. If succesfull I finesse ♦ after a ♠ to the king. If LHO wins the ♦9, I will cash my ♦ and ♥ winners and exit with the 3rd ♥.

[inquiry]

The club suit should be good for 3 tricks. First, we expect West opening lead to be from QJ9(x) in general. Second, the "negative" club five marks West with Club JACK and the club 32. So eventually (not now), we will lead the club TEN and when WEST covers, we will duck. Since WEST will still have the ♣32 in hand, we will find out if he had four or five clubs by simply looking at EAST card on the club TEN.

This will give us 3♣, 2♥, 2♦ for sure. We can use an endplay to try to get them to open up spades for us as a way to win an extra trickchances in spades and even hearts as a way to generate one extra extra trick. I would start with the heart AK, and third heart. If hearts fail to split adequately, I may need to fall back on playing EAST for QJ of diamonds.

[ArcLight]

Inferences:

West did not lead a spade. Perhaps Spades are only 3 cards long or less.

West has a reasonable lead in clubs, probably 4, QJ??. Assume 4, meaning East has 2.

No overcalls, so probably no voids or extreme distribution.



Clubs are guaranteed for 3 tricks, assuming West made a standard lead of Q from QJ?. I don't think you can assume West has QJ9x. It may be QJ32, with East holding 9 5.

Win the Club Q with the K.


You need an extra trick from hearts and the Spade Ace to be with West.

If hearts are 3-3, you have the trick.
But if they are 4-2 there is one way to deal with the short hand holding 2 honors.

Play off Ace and King of hearts. You may go down an extra trick, but if hearts are not yielding an extra trick , you are going down anyway.


When the time comes (after the 3 hearts are played off), you lead the Club 10 and cover Wests J with the A. Cash your heart winner. Then play the Club 8 and 7, with someone winning the 9 (unless East has it).
Lead a diamond to South, take the Spade finesse.

Save the spades for last in case the opps lead them for you.

Summary:
Win Club Q with K.

Set up hearts (A K 7)

Set up Clubs

Spade finesse


This needs the Spade finesse to work, or for the opps to lead spades.
And it needs Hearts to be 3-3 or 4-2 with the 2 having 2 honors.
I estimate you have around a 25- 30% chance.
36% for hearts being 3-3 + ?10% (1/5 * 48%)
times 50% for spade finesse [actually higher if opps led the suit).
24-30%

[paulg]

PMetsch, on Dec 6 2005, 12:39 PM, said:

I have not more than 4 tricks in ♣s and ♠s, so I need at least 5 tricks in ♦s and ♥s. I can play ♥s, but if that's wrong it may be too late to turn to ♦s. Actually if I play ♦s and ♣s first, then I might endplay someone with the 3rd round of ♥s, to play a ♠.

So the basic line is win ♣K and play ♣T (duck in the dummy). Say LHO leads a heart, win in hand, finesse the ♣, another ♣ (discarding a ♠) and finesse the ♦9. If succesfull I finesse ♦ after a ♠ to the king. If LHO wins the ♦9, I will cash my ♦ and ♥ winners and exit with the 3rd ♥.

I'd choose this line too.

The lead really marks West with ♣QJ932 as leading small without the ♣9 is right especially as South may hold some length in the suit. I hope to lose 2 clubs, spade ace and a diamond ... although the defence may swap a club for a spade.

Paul

[Fluffy]

I would win ♣K next duck a ♥.

[Kalvan14]

PMetsch, on Dec 6 2005, 07:39 AM, said:

I have not more than 4 tricks in ♣s and ♠s, so I need at least 5 tricks in ♦s and ♥s. I can play ♥s, but if that's wrong it may be too late to turn to ♦s. Actually if I play ♦s and ♣s first, then I might endplay someone with the 3rd round of ♥s, to play a ♠.

So the basic line is win ♣K and play ♣T (duck in the dummy). Say LHO leads a heart, win in hand, finesse the ♣, another ♣ (discarding a ♠) and finesse the ♦9. If succesfull I finesse ♦ after a ♠ to the king. If LHO wins the ♦9, I will cash my ♦ and ♥ winners and exit with the 3rd ♥.

I think this is the best line. LHO ha certainly 5 clubs, and diamonds look better than hearts to develop a trick.