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Smooth bidding to 3NT. North declare 3NT, East leading C5, the 4th, 9 in dummy, west 10.
Plan you play
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Plan your dummy play:) suit
#1
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Posted 2005-October-26, 10:01
Smooth bidding to 3NT. North declare 3NT, East leading C5, the 4th, 9 in dummy, west 10.
Plan you play
#2 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2005-October-26, 10:13
This obviously won't work since it was posted here, but i just try and setup diamonds and hope for 4-4 clubs. Ace of diamonds, diamond to the ten is my play. Let me guess it was KJ tight of hearts onside or something and I had 4 heart tricks available 
#3
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Posted 2005-October-26, 10:19
Probably an avoidance play. Duck first club sacraficing a club trick perhaps (they can't run five of them at least) and involving covering Q or J and covering small spot from WEST. (who probably has ATx anyway). So you block clubs and can establish your diamonds with an avoidance play. Bu tthen, who knows what is right.
--Ben--
#4 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2005-October-26, 10:34
Ducking just seems too big.
If he has JTx, I won't gain anything. They can just clear clubs if the heart finesse is on, or I may go down a lot more by doing so (club, heart, club). If it is red at imps, or if it is MP, down 3 wouldn't be good. If it happens to be QJ tight of diamonds, down 3 is REALLY bad
If clubs are 4-4, I will feel REALLY stupid. I will go down when I was cold. If he has ATx, they might be able to beat me if a small club comes back and then a heart comes back. Also an avoidance play may not even be possible if the opening leader has QJx of diamonds. Unlikely, and I'll probably make it if its ATx but do I really have any reason to think it is?
If he has JTx, I won't gain anything. They can just clear clubs if the heart finesse is on, or I may go down a lot more by doing so (club, heart, club). If it is red at imps, or if it is MP, down 3 wouldn't be good. If it happens to be QJ tight of diamonds, down 3 is REALLY bad
If clubs are 4-4, I will feel REALLY stupid. I will go down when I was cold. If he has ATx, they might be able to beat me if a small club comes back and then a heart comes back. Also an avoidance play may not even be possible if the opening leader has QJx of diamonds. Unlikely, and I'll probably make it if its ATx but do I really have any reason to think it is?
#5
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Posted 2005-October-26, 10:43
Jlall, on Oct 26 2005, 11:13 AM, said:
This obviously won't work since it was posted here,
Hey, I 'm not setting you up
#6
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Posted 2005-October-26, 10:44
Yes you do Justin, because the hand was posted here.
I agree with your analysis, especially against good opponents.
I agree with your analysis, especially against good opponents.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.
- hrothgar
- hrothgar
#7
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Posted 2005-October-26, 11:43
Ducking the club just seems a bit deep when they cash the first four club tricks. Or the first three and switch to a heart.
#8
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Posted 2005-October-27, 07:44
I would take the easy line as well. Ducking the ♣A with ♣A10x will usually be right at IMPS with a ♦ stopper, but its the only case adn requires a good defence that won't be done without hesitation.
#9
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Posted 2005-October-27, 10:39
Why the fixation on A10x? I assume 1N - 3N and the ♣ spot could easily (from West's perspective) be from KJ8542. Imagine ducking with A10x then 
IFF (if and only if) West holds an obvious ♦ stop and the ♥K, he can safely play the 10 from A10x, since he then knows that you cannot run 9 winners.
So for the duck to be 'right', you must be playing against an inspired defender with a low-probability hand. Whereas the duck could be radically wrong on all kinds of normal hands: see Justin's post.
Sometimes we get ourselves involved in metagames that merely lead us astray: by worrying about an unlikely scenario, we generate a losing option. While an expert defender may have 'got me' here, I'll pay off to that with a 'nice defence' comment in the end game if that has happened.
Now, if we opened 1♣ or otherwise showed length, the 10 from A10x becomes easier to find... and the chances of a 4-4 break become diminished...but the post did not suggest this.
IFF (if and only if) West holds an obvious ♦ stop and the ♥K, he can safely play the 10 from A10x, since he then knows that you cannot run 9 winners.
So for the duck to be 'right', you must be playing against an inspired defender with a low-probability hand. Whereas the duck could be radically wrong on all kinds of normal hands: see Justin's post.
Sometimes we get ourselves involved in metagames that merely lead us astray: by worrying about an unlikely scenario, we generate a losing option. While an expert defender may have 'got me' here, I'll pay off to that with a 'nice defence' comment in the end game if that has happened.
Now, if we opened 1♣ or otherwise showed length, the 10 from A10x becomes easier to find... and the chances of a 4-4 break become diminished...but the post did not suggest this.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
#10
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Posted 2005-October-27, 21:52
Here are the actual full hands:
The Avoidance play wins. Don't know if it is a % play.
Eest Led C5
The Avoidance play wins. Don't know if it is a % play.
#12
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Posted 2005-October-28, 00:44
Jlall, on Oct 27 2005, 11:25 PM, said:
no way to make on this layout.
no way, with accurate defense (assuming West has ♥J).
Senshu
#13
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Posted 2005-October-28, 17:33
Jlall, on Oct 27 2005, 11:25 PM, said:
no way to make on this layout.
After the low ♣ lead you either need ♦QJ tight or ♥KJ tight or of course the ♣4-4.
GBB
“If there is dissatisfaction with the status quo, good. If there is ferment,
so much the better. If there is restlessness, I am pleased. Then let there
be ideas, and hard thought, and hard work.”
so much the better. If there is restlessness, I am pleased. Then let there
be ideas, and hard thought, and hard work.”
#14 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2005-October-28, 18:05
Trpltrbl, on Oct 28 2005, 06:33 PM, said:
Jlall, on Oct 27 2005, 11:25 PM, said:
no way to make on this layout.
After the low ♣ lead you either need ♦QJ tight or ♥KJ tight or of course the ♣4-4.
GBB
... but in this layout, none of those happen...
#15
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Posted 2005-October-28, 18:54
Jlall, on Oct 27 2005, 11:25 PM, said:
no way to make on this layout.
I could be wrong but isn't this a make?
Low club to the 10 and duck. Now if LHO returns a club, and declarer covers, East must duck to preserve communications - but if he does, then declarer can finesse the heart and cash the heart Ace, finesse the spade and cash two more, then exit with the his highest club. East can cash his clubs but then will have to broach the diamond suit and eliminate the loser there.
Winston
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
#16
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Posted 2005-October-28, 19:09
Winstonm, on Oct 28 2005, 07:54 PM, said:
Jlall, on Oct 27 2005, 11:25 PM, said:
no way to make on this layout.
I could be wrong but isn't this a make?
Low club to the 10 and duck. Now if LHO returns a club, and declarer covers, East must duck to preserve communications - but if he does, then declarer can finesse the heart and cash the heart Ace, finesse the spade and cash two more, then exit with the his highest club. East can cash his clubs but then will have to broach the diamond suit and eliminate the loser there.
Winston
what if easts leads a low diamond, 10 from south, and west doesn't cover? double dummy? a little, yeah
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#17
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Posted 2005-October-28, 19:11
luke warm, on Oct 28 2005, 08:09 PM, said:
Winstonm, on Oct 28 2005, 07:54 PM, said:
Jlall, on Oct 27 2005, 11:25 PM, said:
no way to make on this layout.
I could be wrong but isn't this a make?
Low club to the 10 and duck. Now if LHO returns a club, and declarer covers, East must duck to preserve communications - but if he does, then declarer can finesse the heart and cash the heart Ace, finesse the spade and cash two more, then exit with the his highest club. East can cash his clubs but then will have to broach the diamond suit and eliminate the loser there.
Winston
what if easts leads a low diamond, 10 from south, and west doesn't cover? double dummy? a little, yeah
That's when you say...good defense.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
#18
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Posted 2005-October-28, 19:13
Winstonm, on Oct 28 2005, 07:54 PM, said:
Jlall, on Oct 27 2005, 11:25 PM, said:
no way to make on this layout.
I could be wrong but isn't this a make?
Low club to the 10 and duck. Now if LHO returns a club, and declarer covers, East must duck to preserve communications - but if he does, then declarer can finesse the heart and cash the heart Ace, finesse the spade and cash two more, then exit with the his highest club. East can cash his clubs but then will have to broach the diamond suit and eliminate the loser there.
Winston
I was thinking East covers with CA and shift to H. But then declarer has time to set up ♦s by cashing ♦AK and let East in with 3rd ♦. So East had to duck 2nd ♣...
Senshu
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