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Romney vs. Obama Can Nate Silver be correct?

#1041 User is offline   lalldonn 

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Posted 2012-November-09, 17:57

Mike you are just bitter that Fred came to the US from Canada so we get the credit for BBO not you.
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#1042 User is online   mikeh 

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Posted 2012-November-09, 18:02

 lalldonn, on 2012-November-09, 17:57, said:

Mike you are just bitter that Fred came to the US from Canada so we get the credit for BBO not you.

I hate it when you're right.

But I cling, desperately, to the knowledge that we invented basketball and drury.
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#1043 User is online   blackshoe 

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Posted 2012-November-09, 18:08

 Trinidad, on 2012-November-09, 06:56, said:

A bizarre example of this difference between scientists and non-scientists is the recent case in Italy where scientists were convicted for up to 6 years (IIRC) in jail, because they failed to predict an earth quake (with many casualties).

This article suggests that they were convicted for a somewhat different reason.
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#1044 User is offline   Gerardo 

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Posted 2012-November-09, 20:40

 lalldonn, on 2012-November-09, 17:57, said:

Mike you are just bitter that Fred came to the US from Canada so we get the credit for BBO not you.


Nah, BBO VERY early address (in Windows client splash screen), used to be in Toronto.
This was in early 2001. Don't remember exactly when Fred moved, but by December 2001 he already was in Las Vegas.

#1045 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 01:53

One result of the election is that Canadians can tell us we should be more like Western Europe or Canada. :)

Not that they should be more like the USA.


BTW does this mean USA can take on a mistress and be cool?

Just asken......
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#1046 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 05:42

 mike777, on 2012-November-10, 01:53, said:



BTW does this mean USA can take on a mistress and be cool?

Just asken......


I think that has been done already.
Just sayin.
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#1047 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 06:09

 kenberg, on 2012-November-10, 05:42, said:

I think that has been done already.
Just sayin.



really...??

Not sure about the coolpart..Imean when cool.??

sorry I should note that having a lover on the side is cool

based on the lack of forum comments.
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#1048 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 06:45

fwiw

If you claim this is the only cia director who cheated on his wife..prove it...

If not then what is the issue?
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#1049 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 07:25

 mike777, on 2012-November-10, 06:45, said:

fwiw

If you claim this is the only cia director who cheated on his wife..prove it...

If not then what is the issue?


The Petraeus development is a personal tragedy for him, his wife, and no doubt for the other woman as well. Once again I am left to wonder why someone ever takes such a job. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying everyone does it or that it's ok, my wife would definitely not think that it's ok, but really we just know too damn much about other people's lives.

An example that I think I mentioned before: My younger daughter posted a picture of me on her Facebook page. She pulled it off the web, I was unaware of its existence.It shows me speaking at a celebration, with a microphone in one hand and a glass of wine in the other. I am past the age when I have to worry that some potential employer might see this, but good grief.

We need to develop strong social mores that heavily discourage people from tracking other's lives. It's my understanding from the Post this morning that the Petraeus affair was uncovered by the FBI during some national security investigation. I suppose that it then had to proceed the way that it did, but it's too damn bad. No one gains.
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#1050 User is offline   lalldonn 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 07:59

 mikeh, on 2012-November-09, 18:02, said:

I hate it when you're right.

But I cling, desperately, to the knowledge that we invented basketball and drury.

I believe basketball was also invented by a Canadian in America. Ouch. You can have drury. Back then it didn't promise support anyway. Who wants credit for that?
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#1051 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 09:46

There is a very long list of American accomplishments done by people who were not born in America. It is my hope that this will continue.

Which perhaps gets us back to Obama and the next four years. Yes he referred to the U.S. as "the greatest country in the world". But he also referred to problems that must be addressed, including immigration issues. I wish him, and us, well. Incidentally, had Romney won I would have wished him well, just as I have after every election since before I was old enough to vote.

Let's get it done.
Ken
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#1052 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 10:38

 kenberg, on 2012-November-10, 09:46, said:

Which perhaps gets us back to Obama and the next four years. Yes he referred to the U.S. as "the greatest country in the world". But he also referred to problems that must be addressed, including immigration issues. I wish him, and us, well. Incidentally, had Romney won I would have wished him well, just as I have after every election since before I was old enough to vote.


All that time rooting for Romney and he finally got to contest an election. Who would have thought ...
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#1053 User is online   blackshoe 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 15:01

 kenberg, on 2012-November-10, 07:25, said:

The Petraeus development is a personal tragedy for him, his wife, and no doubt for the other woman as well. Once again I am left to wonder why someone ever takes such a job. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying everyone does it or that it's ok, my wife would definitely not think that it's ok, but really we just know too damn much about other people's lives.

An example that I think I mentioned before: My younger daughter posted a picture of me on her Facebook page. She pulled it off the web, I was unaware of its existence.It shows me speaking at a celebration, with a microphone in one hand and a glass of wine in the other. I am past the age when I have to worry that some potential employer might see this, but good grief.

We need to develop strong social mores that heavily discourage people from tracking other's lives. It's my understanding from the Post this morning that the Petraeus affair was uncovered by the FBI during some national security investigation. I suppose that it then had to proceed the way that it did, but it's too damn bad. No one gains.

When I was stationed in England (1990-1992), one night on the late news (about 11 PM, iirc) a video was shown of a car stopped on some street in London. A woman, provocatively dressed, was leaning over speaking to the driver through the open passenger side window. The car was identified by the reporter as belonging to a well-respected justice of the Queen's Bench. The woman was not identified, but the vicinity where the video was taken was identified as an area "frequented by prostitutes". By 2 AM, I read the next day, the Justice's resignation was on his boss' desk. I was impressed. "What person in the US justice system, or what US politician, would even think of doing that?" is what I thought. I was reminded of it when I read of General Petraus' resignation. As one of my last USN commanders told me (told all officers in the command, in fact) "it is not enough that an officer avoid impropriety. He must avoid even the appearance of impropriety".

It's true that no one gains from this incident, but the general did the right thing by resigning.
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#1054 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 17:19

 blackshoe, on 2012-November-10, 15:01, said:

I was reminded of it when I read of General Petraus' resignation.


When you are a high ranking member of the intelligence community, your personal life is usually scrutinised for security threats. This includes the vetting of any romantic partners. It seems particularly egregious for the head of an intelligence agency to expose themselves to the possibility of blackmail by a foreign intelligence agency in such a way.
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#1055 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 18:14

I imagine Petraeus had to resign, and he did. But I believe in the old fashioned virtues: If you have an affair with a married man, or a married woman, you don't tell anyone about it. And you definitely don't write threatening e-mails.

Sort of a re-run of Fatal Attraction
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#1056 User is online   blackshoe 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 18:25

 phil_20686, on 2012-November-10, 17:19, said:

When you are a high ranking member of the intelligence community, your personal life is usually scrutinised for security threats. This includes the vetting of any romantic partners. It seems particularly egregious for the head of an intelligence agency to expose themselves to the possibility of blackmail by a foreign intelligence agency in such a way.

I'm well aware of the security concerns involved in high-level security clearances, although I haven't had one these past twenty years or so.

 kenberg, on 2012-November-10, 18:14, said:

I imagine Petraeus had to resign, and he did. But I believe in the old fashioned virtues: If you have an affair with a married man, or a married woman, you don't tell anyone about it. And you definitely don't write threatening e-mails.

Sort of a re-run of Fatal Attraction

My understanding is that the woman, Paula Broadwell, wrote the "harassing" e-mails to a third party, not related or connected to GEN Petraus, and that the FBI discovered the affair by looking into Broadwell's other e-mails. Not exactly a Fatal Attraction scenario.
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#1057 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 22:29

 blackshoe, on 2012-November-10, 18:25, said:

I'm well aware of the security concerns involved in high-level security clearances, although I haven't had one these past twenty years or so.


My understanding is that the woman, Paula Broadwell, wrote the "harassing" e-mails to a third party, not related or connected to GEN Petraus, and that the FBI discovered the affair by looking into Broadwell's other e-mails. Not exactly a Fatal Attraction scenario.


The NYTimes had an interesting article about a previous head who was famous for his numerous affairs all over the world. Times have changed.
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#1058 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-10, 22:56

 BunnyGo, on 2012-November-10, 22:29, said:

The NYTimes had an interesting article about a previous head who was famous for his numerous affairs all over the world. Times have changed.

I read that too. But it seems that Allen Dulles couldn't be blackmailed because he really didn't care who knew about his affairs, including his wife.
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#1059 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 06:59

 blackshoe, on 2012-November-10, 18:25, said:

I'm well aware of the security concerns involved in high-level security clearances, although I haven't had one these past twenty years or so.


My understanding is that the woman, Paula Broadwell, wrote the "harassing" e-mails to a third party, not related or connected to GEN Petraus, and that the FBI discovered the affair by looking into Broadwell's other e-mails. Not exactly a Fatal Attraction scenario.



btw she lives a few miles down the road from me...in the same area as John edwards mistress.

She is married to a doc and has 2 young kids.

One does wonder why this third party was so scared they went to the FBI for help.
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#1060 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2012-November-11, 08:04

Forbes:

Quote

“I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Team Romney’s polling cluelessness comes after years of conservatives demonizing pointy-headed academics, including scientists. On subjects like evolution, global warming, the biology of human conception, and even macroeconomics, conservatives have been increasingly bold about rejecting the consensus of scientific experts in favor of ideologically self-serving pronouncements. That attitude may have contributed to their loss of the White House in 2012."


The narrative should be derived from interpreting the data, not the other way around. Of course, this means one must be willing to change one's opinion, which seems beyond the grasp of some of our evolutionary cousins.
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